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Spring Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014/15


snywx

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The snow is pretty much over, a hefty 0.7 inches for  the day.

 

Now do I wait for 6 hours to measure as per the new guidleines when the total will be 0.0 or can I just go with the 0.7? I don't want to be involved in any scandal as per the BWI over measurements of 2009/10, or was it 2010/11?

 

There is no 6 hours in the latest guidelines.   You record the maximum depth of new snow over a 24 hour period, which is 0.7"

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The shortwave on Tuesday looked interesting initially but has trended weaker and further south recently (big surprise).. probably no more than some rain/snow showers with minimal accumulation at this point. The operational GFS likes Friday night/Saturday for a quick hitter as a wave develops along the front.. a thread the needle situation for snowfall and doesn't have multi model or ensemble support. Long-term finally looks like a spring pattern with a GOA/west coast trough becoming established and pumped up heights across the eastern half of the conus.. it's about time.

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The latest from Mt Holly NWS for tomorrow afternoon/night.

Feel good about snow at my location.

Really going to depend on how much precip actually falls in the area to determine any accumulation.

 

 

NJZ001-007>009-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-311945-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
340 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SNOW IS LIKELY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. UP TO TWO INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE.
 

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From Binghamton for tomorrow, not bad for here in the Poconos.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY

349 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-312000-

BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-

SOUTHERN WAYNE-

349 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX INTO NORTHEASTERN

PENNSYLVANIA BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUING

THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING IN THE EVENING. VALLEY

LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX CHANGING TO ALL SNOW

BEFORE ENDING WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS SEEING

MAINLY WET SNOW. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER

HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A COATING UP TO AN INCH OR TWO IN THE

VALLEYS...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

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0 z nam bumped up precip for tomorrow.

May get a little interesting tomorrow in my backyard.

Had some snow move through earlier tonight.

Cloudy now. Temp 34f

Gfs and ban have even my area getting snow but surface 33. U should do ok based on those model soundings

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Kind of interesting to see how well the upper jet streak corresponds to the mid-level ascent and radar echoes.

 

itr0w3V.png

 

There's some decent low- to mid-level frontogenesis on the north side of the disturbance, so maybe formidable precip rates are a possibility after all. We'll need all the help we can get, as temps seem to be running several degrees warmer than expected.

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Kind of interesting to see how well the upper jet streak corresponds to the mid-level ascent and radar echoes.

itr0w3V.png

There's some decent low- to mid-level frontogenesis on the north side of the disturbance, so maybe formidable precip rates are a possibility after all. We'll need all the help we can get, as temps seem to be running several degrees warmer than expected.

Upton just went from less than a half inch of accumulation for Rockland, to 1-2 inches. I think they may issue a WWA later this afternoon
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NWNJ and NEPA do look to be in the sweet spot for the this one. If I can squeeze out two inches here I'll be happpy.

 

I agree with this... Someone in the Poconos w/ elevation ( James) looks to get a nice 3-5" event with this. 

 

1-2" is what I'm expecting imby.. Would be nice to reach 70" again :)

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