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2015 Short Term Severe Weather Discussion


Hoosier

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Got cored while spotting today in Southern Huntington County. I measured a few 50 MPH gusts with my handheld anemometer until the pea sized hail started and stung my hand enough to have to pull it back into the car. A few trees into power lines were the only casualties.

 

I had a fun afternoon of spotting and chasing.

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9 wind reports and a hail report for NW Ohio yesterday. Not too bad, especially since the brunt of the storms came across the most rural areas of the region

Sent from my iPhone

 

How long have you been in Michigan?

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Slight risk incoming for SW Indiana, SE Illinois and NW Kentucky...

 

Otherwise, no other major changes on the latest SPC outlook.

 

day1otlk_1300.gif?1432991138260

 

...SUMMARY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WINDS

AND HAIL...WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF

THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS. A FEW STRONG TO

POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF NEW

MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...

A MULTI-STREAM TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY E FROM THE PLNS INTO THE

GRT LKS...OH VLY...AND LWR MS VLY THIS PERIOD AS A RIDGE PERSISTS

OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN. WITHIN

THE TROUGH...SRN STREAM VORT NOW OVER WRN AR SHOULD CONTINUE NE INTO

WRN KY BY THIS EVE WHILE UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER WRN NEB/KS MOVES

E INTO IA. AT THE SAME TIME...STRONGER NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW

OVER WRN ONT SHOULD TRACK E INTO NRN/CNTRL QUE BY EARLY

SUN...STRENGTHENING EXISTING WSW FLOW ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS/NEW

ENGLAND. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL TOP BUILDING RIDGE OVER

THE INTERIOR WEST...AND AN MCV MAY EVOLVE FROM MCS NOW OVER N CNTRL

TX.

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDING FROM ERN QUE SWWD THROUGH

THE LWR GRT LKS AND LWR OH VLY INTO W CNTRL TX SHOULD PROGRESS

STEADILY E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY...BANDS OF

CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF IT...AND SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LWR OH

VLY...WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY LOW-LVL SOURCES OF LIFT FOR

TSTMS...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN AND EVE. 

 

..LWR OH/TN VLYS THIS AFTN/EVE...

SFC LOW NOW LOCATED ALONG THE AR-MO BORDER SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY NE

ALONG COLD FRONT INTO SRN IL BY EVE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM

UPR VORT. BAND OF ENHANCED /40+ KT/ 700-500 MB FLOW ON E SIDE OF THE

VORT WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF TN/KY AND

SRN IL/IND TODAY...WHERE PW WILL REMAIN AOA 1.75 INCHES. ALTHOUGH

MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK...SFC HEATING AND CONFLUENCE IN THE

WARM SECTOR SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SHORT LINES/CLUSTERS OF

STORMS BY EARLY AFTN. THESE COULD YIELD A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR

LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY TNGT. 

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complete local storm report text for that tornado

---

0847 PM     TORNADO          4 SE INDIANAPOLIS       39.74N  86.09W  05/30/2015                   MARION             IN   NWS STORM SURVEY                EF-1 TORNADO BRIEFLY TOUCHED DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF               SOUTHEASTERN AND IRVINGTON AVENUES. SIGNIFICANT GARAGE               DAMAGE TO TWO HOMES...TWO AUTOMOBILES STACKED ON TOP OF               ONE ANOTHER. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. PATH LENGTH 0.3               MILES...PATH WIDTH 40 YDS.   
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Tomorrow is also the 155th anniversary of the infamous Camanche Iowa tornado.  Probably one of the biggest tornado disasters in Iowa's recorded history.

 

I find it remarkable how spared many of the bigger population centers in the state are tornado wise, given how many intense tornadoes the state gets. Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, QC, Waterloo, etc. all haven't really suffered a hit from a significant tornado in a long time (the latter being the closest of course with Parkersburg and also in 2000).

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I find it remarkable how spared many of the bigger population centers in the state are tornado wise, given how many intense tornadoes the state gets. Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, QC, Waterloo, etc. all haven't really suffered a hit from a significant tornado in a long time (the latter being the closest of course with Parkersburg and also in 2000).

 

Yeah it's pretty crazy.  For a brief moment on this past April 9th I thought our luck had run out when that couplet quickly developed southwest of Clinton.  The parent supercell was very mature and had already cycled off several weak tornadoes.  It had a large inflow notch on that new circulation and thought it could become a strong tornado as it entered Clinton.  Luckily it only produced a weak tornado and failed to get organized like it's counterpart a few counties to the east that produced the killer EF-4.

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Fairly strong shortwave trough showing up on the 12z Euro/GFS for this upcoming Thursday in IA/vicinity. EML may be a problem (again) as the remnants of Blanca complicate things in the west. Shear looks impressive right now though.

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Fairly strong shortwave trough showing up on the 12z Euro/GFS for this upcoming Thursday in IA/vicinity. EML may be a problem (again) as the remnants of Blanca complicate things in the west. Shear looks impressive right now though.

 

 

Are we gonna get a setup with a quality EML sometime?  lol

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