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2015 Short Term Severe Weather Discussion


Hoosier

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WBNS reported a "possible tornado" near New Albany, Ohio.  This area is mainly warehouses, with two major corporate headquarters complexes nearby (Abercrombie & Fitch, as well as Bob Evans Farms) and interspersed fields, forests, and a few houses.

Direct link to video.itself (I wonder if this was really a tornado?)
 

Here is an link to the area shown in the video

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WBNS reported a "possible tornado" near New Albany, Ohio. This area is mainly warehouses, with two major corporate headquarters complexes nearby (Abercrombie & Fitch, as well as Bob Evans Farms) and interspersed fields, forests, and a few houses.

Direct link to video.itself (I wonder if this was really a tornado?)

Here is an link to the area shown in the video

The TCMH radar scans that area at a fairly low height every minute and all I saw by the time the storm hit Pataskala was straight line winds on radar. The video looks like dust getting kicked up by a gust front (it had been dry there until today). I may be wrong but I don't think that was a tornado. We'll see if ILN surveys or not.
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The TCMH radar scans that area at a fairly low height every minute and all I saw by the time the storm hit Pataskala was straight line winds on radar. The video looks like dust getting kicked up by a gust front (it had been dry there until today). I may be wrong but I don't think that was a tornado. We'll see if ILN surveys or not.

 

Yeah this was my first impression too.

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The following is very conditional for Sunday in northern Illinois. Though the surface low is much farther north, some of the upper features are not too different from April 9. What lacks upstairs we gain from thermodynamics in May. We absolutely need an OFB to lock in over Illinois; otherwise, WF surges to Green Bay. Current model trends today have a minor piece of upper energy hanging back Saturday night in Kansas, tracking toward Illinois Sunday. 850/925 winds are now better in Illinois than previous progs. While 850 is stronger north of Chicago, 925 and surface progs hint OFB wind / isobar kink in northern Illinois. Thermal gradient is also forecast, but these are just models 60 hours out. Time will tell.

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The following is very conditional for Sunday in northern Illinois. Though the surface low is much farther north, some of the upper features are not too different from April 9. What lacks upstairs we gain from thermodynamics in May. We absolutely need an OFB to lock in over Illinois; otherwise, WF surges to Green Bay. Current model trends today have a minor piece of upper energy hanging back Saturday night in Kansas, tracking toward Illinois Sunday. 850/925 winds are now better in Illinois than previous progs. While 850 is stronger north of Chicago, 925 and surface progs hint OFB wind / isobar kink in northern Illinois. Thermal gradient is also forecast, but these are just models 60 hours out. Time will tell.

Good post. Definitely getting more concerned about Sunday. You can see impact of potential OFB on surface winds on 12z Euro over northern IL, with pronounced backing fro SSW to SSE between 18z and 00z. At the same time, Euro is showing 60 H5 jet punching in from west central IL.

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Decent looking setup in IA/vicinity on the GFS for Monday.

Been eye-ing that a bit as well. Still a way out but I'd imagine the GFS might not be backing the low levels as much as it should (at least seems like that's been its bias lately) so we'll see once it gets into the time-frame of the NAM.

FWIW 00Z GFS has EHI values nearing 5 in SE IA/NE MO

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New day 3 has a slight risk for se IL, southern half maybe two-thirds of IN, west-central and sw OH and most of KY.

 

 

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015  
 
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z  

 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS  
VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS...  
 
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE  
APPALACHIANS VICINITY...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND  
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. OTHER POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.  
   
..LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO OH/TN VALLEYS
 
 
IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A FACTOR  
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS  
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DESTABILIZATION/RELATED SEVERE  
RISK EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY. WHILE THERE IS  
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY...THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH AND RELATED MID/UPPER JET WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE  
MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD  
OF THE COLD FRONT. AS STORMS INCREASE/INTENSIFY INTO THE  
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A RELATIVELY  
STRONG WIND FIELD /PARTICULARLY TN VALLEY NORTHWARD/ COULD SUPPORT  
ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL AND POSSIBLY A  
TORNADO OR TWO.  
   
 
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Today could be a little sleeper setup over eastern/southeastern Iowa, western IL, and northeast MO.  Mid-level lapse rates are terrible, since the corridor of heavy rains over the Plains last night pretty much took care of those.  However, ground scraping LCLs, decent wind profiles, and modest cape forming in some clear spots could be enough to make for some interesting storms.  Vis sat shows the eastern half of MO up into southeast IA with some clearing.  On a day like this we probably won't need too much cape.  SPC doesn't have much of this area in any tor risk atm, but I'm thinking there's some potential later this afternoon.

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Severe weather today seems like it would be confined in the southern part of IL today. Can see that clearing pocket in west-central right now, but with more clouds back further west. Definitely not thunderstorm weather in northern IL with stratus and RN-.

 

wisgif32.jpg

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Watch coming for MO soon.

 

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241754Z - 241930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE NRN PORTION
OF A QLCS ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL MO...WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION EVIDENT OVER ERN HENRY COUNTY. CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
OF THIS LINE IS EXPECTED...IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT FROM A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MODEST...0-1 KM SRH IN
THE RANGE OF 100 TO 200 M2/S2 WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED RISK FOR
QLCS CIRCULATIONS. BOWING SEGMENTS MAY ALSO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS.

A WW IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 1830Z.

..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/24/2015

 

post-4544-0-63401000-1432490845_thumb.gi

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Watch coming for MO soon.

And there it is.

 

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 203

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

120 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL

800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE

SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI...WHILE ADDITIONAL

THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF ARKANSAS AND ACROSS

THE OZARK PLATEAU. RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL

PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THESE INTENSIFYING STORMS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF

KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WEST PLAINS

MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

post-4544-0-33461200-1432491975_thumb.gi

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 207
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 530 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUSTAINED STORMS
AND SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS WATCH
AREA THOUGH LATE EVENING...POSING A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND...AND TORNADOES.

post-691-0-57042300-1432508310_thumb.gif

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Those central and northern IL storms are moving into an area of enhanced helicity along the warm front but lapse rates are fairly poor as is typical with this somewhat tropical system as JoMo mentioned in the Central thread.  Unusual situation to be sure in this neck of the woods with relatively small cells having the opportunity to turn tornadic on occasion.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  

704 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  

NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...  

 

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT  

 

* AT 702 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF  

ILLINOIS CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  

DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  

 

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  

HAMLET AROUND 710 PM CDT.  

ANDALUSIA...REYNOLDS AND TAYLOR RIDGE AROUND 715 PM CDT.  

BUFFALO AROUND 720 PM CDT.  

MILAN AND OAK GROVE AROUND 725 PM CDT.  

MOLINE...ROCK ISLAND...EAST MOLINE...SILVIS...COAL VALLEY AND  

RIVERDALE AROUND 730 PM CDT.  

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  

718 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  

 

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT  

 

* AT 717 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MONTPELIER...  

OR 10 MILES WEST OF ROCK ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  

DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  

DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  

 

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  

WALCOTT AROUND 730 PM CDT.  

ROCK ISLAND AROUND 735 PM CDT.  

DAVENPORT AROUND 740 PM CDT.  

BETTENDORF...ELDRIDGE AND LONG GROVE AROUND 745 PM CDT.  

 

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