Powerball Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 In their latest uodate, DTX mentioned the HRRR/RAP/NAM are about 6 hours too slow with the progression of the rain/cloud shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 As luck would have it, the one time we have a favorable fropa and the rain mess happens to be 6 hours early lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 SPC has the western half of Ohio in an enhanced risk now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 FWIW, SPC just bumped everyone to "Enhanced" I-69 points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Upgrade to ENH appears to be coming for NW OH, SE MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Upgrade to ENH appears to be coming for NW OH, SE MI Yep, all of western Ohio up through SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Tornado Watch coming per new MD. 80% probability. AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OHIO...INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWERMICHIGAN...FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKYCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELYVALID 111648Z - 111915ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMSINCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THE ISSUANCE OF ATORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY.DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION INTENSIFYING ACROSS SOUTHERNINDIANA CAN BE TRACED BACK TO A LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE CIRCULATIONEMANATING FROM SOUTHERN-PLAINS DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS FROMYESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES CYCLING -- HAVINGWEAKENED IN RESPONSE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING -- AND SHOULD CONTINUE TORE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA AND WRN OHIOTO SRN LOWER MI. THIS ZONE ALIGNS WITH VIS-IMAGERY-IMPLIED...DIURNALLY ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATINGACROSS THE REMNANT CLOUD SHIELD FROM MORE WIDESPREAD DECAYEDCONVECTION. AS BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS INTENSIFY THROUGH THEAFTERNOON...AND THE AIR MASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AMIDSTLOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS...OTHER CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGEAND INTENSITY WITHIN A WARM SECTOR S OF A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONTADVANCING NWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI.MLCAPE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AIR IS PROJECTED TO PEAK AROUND1000-1500 J/KG...WHILE 30-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTSSMALL...FAST MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS. THEIND VWP SAMPLES 45-55 KT OF FLOW IN THE 1-3-KM-AGL LAYER...ENHANCINGTHE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS BY CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. WHILEDIRECTIONAL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL BE LIMITED IN GENERAL --EXCEPT INVOF THE MI WARM FRONT -- THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEARWILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO RISK WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLSTORMS / LEWP INFLECTIONS. SUCH RISK WILL BE GREATEST NEAR BACKEDSFC FLOW INVOF THE WARM FRONT...COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Tornado Watch coming per new MD. 80% probability. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0606.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OHIO...INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHERN KENTUCKY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 111648Z - 111915Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH IS LIKELY. DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION INTENSIFYING ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA CAN BE TRACED BACK TO A LONG-LIVED CONVECTIVE CIRCULATION EMANATING FROM SOUTHERN-PLAINS DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES CYCLING -- HAVING WEAKENED IN RESPONSE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING -- AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF INDIANA AND WRN OHIO TO SRN LOWER MI. THIS ZONE ALIGNS WITH VIS-IMAGERY-IMPLIED... DIURNALLY ENHANCED BAROCLINICITY OWING TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE REMNANT CLOUD SHIELD FROM MORE WIDESPREAD DECAYED CONVECTION. AS BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THE AIR MASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AMIDST LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS...OTHER CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITHIN A WARM SECTOR S OF A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT ADVANCING NWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. MLCAPE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AIR IS PROJECTED TO PEAK AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG...WHILE 30-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTS SMALL...FAST MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE IND VWP SAMPLES 45-55 KT OF FLOW IN THE 1-3-KM-AGL LAYER...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS BY CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. WHILE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL BE LIMITED IN GENERAL -- EXCEPT INVOF THE MI WARM FRONT -- THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A TORNADO RISK WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS / LEWP INFLECTIONS. SUCH RISK WILL BE GREATEST NEAR BACKED SFC FLOW INVOF THE WARM FRONT. ..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 05/11/2015 ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Potential looking pretty good locally, we still have a warm front in the area, and the mesoscale models want to locally back the wind at the surface as a low forms in the state in a couple hours. That will really pump up the low-level helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 And the Watch is out until 8:00. And dang, the first Warning is out already. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...NORTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ALLEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEASTERN WELLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...* UNTIL 145 PM EDT* AT 111 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ATORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OSSIAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.HAZARD...TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TOROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRISWILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE ISLIKELY.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...OSSIAN...NEW HAVEN...MONROEVILLE...MAGLEY...YODER...POE...MIDDLETOWN...HESSEN CASSEL...WILLIAMS...HOAGLAND...MAPLES...TILLMAN...ZULU AND TOWNLEY.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 469 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 0 AND 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Tornado watch until 8pm per weather radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 And the Watch is out until 8:00. And dang. The first Warning is out already. That cell looks like it is a hair behind a slowing outflow boundary, once it catches it, the storm should produce. The atmosphere ahead of that boundary is pretty rich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 That cell looks like it is a hair behind a slowing outflow boundary, once it catches it, the storm should produce. The atmosphere ahead of that boundary is pretty rich. That's exactly what I am thinking. Thing should explode in a good amount of time. Keeping my eyes on the southern cells as well. Just a waiting game at this point. Rotation being reported by PD and other sources near 469 in Allen County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Good looking circulation with this storm. Might really pop as it pushes further into this unstable airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Ben Kessler headed to the Zulu cell from the looks of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Storm in Southeastern Indiana near Batesville will need to be watching in the next 30 minutes or so as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 2 cells south of the warned cell are getting better organized. All 3 of these cells would be heading toward the Detroit-Toledo-Findley corridor in about 2-3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 2 cells south of the warned cell are getting better organized. All 3 of these cells would be heading toward the Detroit-Toledo-Findley corridor in about 2-3 hours. May be out of school by then and book north. These look like they'll miss me by 2-3 miles on their current path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 These storms are going to absolutely explode as move into NW Ohio. 85/60 here right now Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Tornado warning gone on the New Haven storm. Still a decent circulation with it that might recycle as it gets further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Rotation tightening up again with the storm in NW Ohio West of Defiance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Nasty cell in N KY getting better organized and is going to head into Cincinnati or its SE suburbs in the next hr or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 cell might scrape southern metro, rest of metro DTW is SOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 That line along the IN/OH border looks to be beefing up, and even redeveloping behind the main line. I think Detroit might get in on the action of that northernmost cell west of Toledo unless it makes another right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Decent couplet on that second cell behind the lead cell in N Ohio headed for Paulding gonna see a tornado warning on it soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 SRH isn't quite there yet for NW Ohio. Northernmost cell is trying to hook though and updraft is strengthening Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapitalKid Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Nice little string of svr storms in Kentucky from Frankfort south to the KY/TN border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Storms might be lining up a little much. Just seem to be outpacing the best shear Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 LOL at the SPC jumping the gun. What were they thinking when they seen MI was in the grasps of a wall full of crapvection? I mean, better safe than sorry, but christ, why issue a watch all the way to the thumb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 it's just a watch, dude far southern metro looks ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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