ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 NAM has a headache and a half for the first half of Wednesday... too much rain. Nice potential with the jet streak on the trough though. Could be some decent squall potential, especially if we get a negative tilt. That'd be one hell of a system for late August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Pretty cool graph from Buf NWS about the other days T-storms and heavy rain. 10,568! That's how many lightning strikes (both cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground) occurred between 11pm Friday night and 4am Saturday morning across the area. Also the rainfall during that same time-frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 16, 2015 Author Share Posted August 16, 2015 Between the NAM and GFS, something is out to lunch on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted August 16, 2015 Share Posted August 16, 2015 Even on Tuesday there are huge differences in the NAM vs GFS. Check out how the LLJ is depicted between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Another stout trough and seasonably strong low pressure this weekend across the Northern Plains. Nice surge of steep mid-level lapse rates as well. SPC with a day 4 risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Maybe it's just me but it seems as if the majority of the severe wx here this year has occurred over the weekends. Looks like Saturday might follow that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 19, 2015 Share Posted August 19, 2015 Maybe it's just me but it seems as if the majority of the severe wx here this year has occurred over the weekends. Looks like Saturday might follow that trend. I remember 3/4 of the weekends this May had a severe outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 21, 2015 Share Posted August 21, 2015 Enhanced severe wx risk up to the western TC metro tomorrow afternoon. Nice shear and steep lapse rates combined with the daytime heating gonna make it interesting tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Enhanced severe wx risk up to the western TC metro tomorrow afternoon. Nice shear and steep lapse rates combined with the daytime heating gonna make it interesting tomorrow. Just checked the observed soundings from MPX,ABR,BIS and INL and things look primed. Mixed layer cape is weaker in INL than the others but that is likely to change as the day wears on. Lapse rate will not be a problem today as they are already impressive. I generally agree with the Enhanced area, although I would extend it to the International border.....Wished I didn't have to work today from noon to 8:00pm....Sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI648 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015 THIS IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE A VERY INTERESTING SCENARIO FOR SELOWER MICHIGAN BY MID/LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ASSAID SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT PIVOT THROUGH THE AREA. ITAPPEARS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 40+ KNOTS WITH THISFEATURE BY LATE SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL VEERING IN THE WIND PROFILE IS NOTTOO SHABBY EITHER AS SURFACE FLOW BACKS TO SSE IN ADVANCE OF THISAPPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND H85/H7 SW FLOW INCREASES TO 35-40KNOTS.THESE SHEAR CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT DECENT STORM ORGANIZATION DURINGTHE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREADSEVERE WEATHER WILL BE A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AS LOW LEVELDEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 60F AND TEMPERATURES TOPOUT AROUND 80F. THIS WOULD YIELD SBCAPES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KGAREA. STILL...GIVEN THE FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALEFORCING IN THE 22Z-02Z TIME FRAME...EXPECT MODEST INSTABILITY WILLSUPPORT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL A DECENT SHOTAT SOME SEVERE STORMS DURING FROPA. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOPWILL CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE FAST WEST TO EASTPROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I'll be heading west today, but not particularly sold on any area yet. I could see myself anywhere between Wilmar, MN and Storm Lake, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I'll be heading west today, but not particularly sold on any area yet. I could see myself anywhere between Wilmar, MN and Storm Lake, IA. Looks like a good area to be before things turn more linear to the east. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 I have to take a closer look at tomorrow, but just a peek at the 12z NAM looked at least somewhat intriguing from Lower Michigan into IN/W OH. It's not uncommon for these setups (elevated threat day 1) to have some residual severe and even a low-end tornado threat day 2. Especially if some boundaries (convection-related or lake-enhanced) can locally back wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Very slightly out of our region but that's one hell of a cold front (the convergence signature) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 That's quite a large area under a tornado watch. Almost the entire state of Minnesota is under the watch. Clouds currently flying In every direction. The atmosphere is certainly primed to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 The environment is favorable, but storm mode/evolution is not favoring discrete cells. Could see a few embedded supercells later on, but even now, not much in terms of velocity signatures and coverage of severe warnings. The HRRR actually handled things fairly well, showing a line of storms basically blowing up and forming a line almost instantaneously. We'll see how things evolve tonight, but the window for anything significant and/or photogenic is probably closing up fairly quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 The environment is favorable, but storm mode/evolution is not favoring discrete cells. Could see a few embedded supercells later on, but even now, not much in terms of velocity signatures and coverage of severe warnings. The HRRR actually handled things fairly well, showing a line of storms basically blowing up and forming a line almost instantaneously. We'll see how things evolve tonight, but the window for anything significant and/or photogenic is probably closing up fairly quickly. The stuff in SE NE and maybe around Omaha probably has the most potential... everything else looks like a damn mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Yet another extraordinary extratropical cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Lame-O. Garden variety with a few close CG strikes on the first line. A second line developing to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Looking like a pretty bad bust for the 10% tornado so far. The nocturnal LLJ will be kicking in soon though... should give any remaining supercells an extra boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 Looking like a pretty bad bust for the 10% tornado so far. The nocturnal LLJ will be kicking in soon though... should give any remaining supercells an extra boost. There aren't really any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 There aren't really any. SE Nebraska and just east of Omaha, near Treynor, IA. It looks like it's embedded in a forming line though. Here's a picture of that cell via tvnweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 22, 2015 Share Posted August 22, 2015 There aren't really any. Even the portion of the line from far SW IA into SE NE is junky looking. That one cell near Beatrice looked marginally interesting, but could never tighten up. Now there's just a bunch of merging slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 A Facebook friend of mine has video of snow falling yesterday in Montana. I'm sure it's courtesy of that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 I'll never get why there was a 10% tornado risk today but just IMO. Some people make the 6hr or more trek for today. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Will this line hold together overnight moving east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Second line was rocking as it moved thru. Small branches down and small hail for a few minutes. Wind is fierce still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Will this line hold together overnight moving east? What line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 4km NAM has been gradually ramping up the instability in MI tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 4km NAM has been gradually ramping up the instability in MI tomorrow Not too surprising as it looks like tonight isn't going to be impressive and the line is already waning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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