wisconsinwx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 I haven't had two solid storms in a three to four hour period this year until today, but it was awesome and just at the right time when we needed a soaker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 bust, micro storm right overhead as I step out of the subway Got smoked on the walk to my car in long term parking at ohare. Very wet drive back to DKB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Doing pretty good with rain today. 0.98" at UGN as of 3pm. About to get hit again in Racine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Getting dime to quarter size hail bouncing off the car at 88 and 355. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Somehow have largely missed most of the activity today where I live in southeast Naperville. Probably not much more than a tenth of an inch of rain or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Looks like Naperville will get in on this next batch moving southeast. Decent amount of standing water around here in Racine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 Looks like there was a tornado north of Milwaukee earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 11, 2015 Author Share Posted August 11, 2015 Somehow have largely missed most of the activity today where I live in southeast Naperville. Probably not much more than a tenth of an inch of rain or so. Didn't do very well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Storms across my part of the state dumped heavy rain, but the progressive nature of the cells precluded any flooding. However, only got a big T here in H-town. Kinda reminded me of winter snows hitting all around, but not IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 11, 2015 Share Posted August 11, 2015 Nice little write up on today's storms... http://www.weather.gov/lot/August10Thunderstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 13, 2015 Share Posted August 13, 2015 friday evening looks okish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Nobody mentioning this yet? It's only D4 - D5 but the GFS has only had a hold on it for the last 2 runs so things could definitely change. It's been hinting at a very powerful system for last few days but the location is still uncertain. Most recent 06Z and 12Z are the first 2 runs with any sort of decent agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianGuy Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Very impressive system depicted next Wednesday and worth watching closely. I am interested to see what the SPC has to say about this tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Small line of severe thunderstorms moving SSE through Green Bay right now. Winds up to 70mph and quarter sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Small line of severe thunderstorms moving SSE through Green Bay right now. Winds up to 70mph and quarter sized hail. How far south can that line last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 Nobody mentioning this yet? It's only D4 - D5 but the GFS has only had a hold on it for the last 2 runs so things could definitely change. It's been hinting at a very powerful system for last few days but the location is still uncertain. Most recent 06Z and 12Z are the first 2 runs with any sort of decent agreement. LOL that's crazy Dr. Forbes just posted about this today It's rather unusual to have the threat of a substantial severe thunderstorm (and possible tornado) outbreak in mid-to-late August (except for landfalling tropical systems), but a strong upper-air system might bring an outbreak on Tue and Wed of next week. Keep following here and on The Weather Channel on subsequent days to how this potential threat unfolds. TUESDAY Possible severe thunderstorm outbreak begins in south MN, west- central WI, west, central, and northeast IA, northwest MO, northeast, central and west KS, east and south-central NE, northwest OK, TX panhandle, extreme southeast SD, extreme southeast CO. TORCON - 4 west, central IA; 3 south MN, east NE, northwest MO; 2 to 3 west-central WI, KS, south-central NE; 2 rest of area WEDNESDAY Possible severe thunderstorm outbreak continues in lower peninsula of MI, north-central and west OH, IN, northeast, central and south IL, north-central and west KY, southeast MO, northeast AR, extreme east WI. TORCON - 4 MI; 3 IN, OH areas; 2 to 3 east WI, IL, KY areas; 2 rest of area. A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in the rest of AR, west TN, northwest MS, northwest LA, southeast OK, northeast to central TX. TORCON - 2 or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 GFS's solution is pretty lame... needs a better tilt and there's really not that great instability or lapse rates... only 1000-2000 CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 LOL that's crazy Dr. Forbes just posted about this today What do you mean? I was just talking about here (in this forum)...I don't know about discussion elsewhere. The GFS now only has 3 runs of relative agreement. I'd be highly surprised if it doesn't change drastically in the next 4 days. And the last time Dr. Forbes put this region in a D4 outlook area, this is how it turned out... edit: I also meant D5-D6 in my original post...woops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 GFS's solution is pretty lame... needs a better tilt and there's really not that great instability or lapse rates... only 1000-2000 CAPE. This run is falsely over convective in the warm sector too early in the day. The issue with the run is convective feedback from Tuesday evening's storms. You can see it in the VV fields at 700/850. That said the strong dynamics are still there and the system is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 IWX: ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO PRECIP CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. SHARP/DIGGING UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN TIER INTO THEWRN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS STRONG 110 KT UPPER JETROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROF. RESULTANT DEEPENING SFC LOW ACROSS THEGREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A STRONG FRONT EAST THROUGH THE AREA MONDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING(???). ALTHOUGH A BIT FAR OUT FORDETAILS...INCREASED SEVERE CHANCES MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ONTIMING OF FROPA AND EVOLUTION OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSERATES LOOK POOR AT THIS POINT. WILL DEFINITELY BE A FEATURE TO KEEPAN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ILX: THE 12Z GFS HAS SPED UP THIS SYSTEM AND NOW IS MORE IN LINE WITH LAST NIGHT'S ECMWF BRINGING THE BESTCHANCES OF PRECIP TO ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY. BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THISMID-WEEK SYSTEM SUGGESTS BETTER FORCING AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUESSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WITH THE HIGH BOUNDARY LAYERHUMIDITY LEADING TO SOME DECENT INSTABILITY, WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAYNIGHT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL OF SEVEREWEATHER. GRR: MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWING A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL WAVE ARRIVING FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OFTHE WINDS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. MESOSCALEFEATURES ALTER TIMING STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF ANY CONVECTION. WILLFEATURE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK DUE TOTHIS PASSING WAVE. LMK: THE POSSIBILITY OF A FROPA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY IS A SOMEWHAT NEW IDEA WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS, THOUGH THE MODEL HAS SHOWN ATREND TOWARD THIS SOLUTION OVER ABOUT THE PAST THREE RUNS. THE ECMWFAND GEFS MEAN DON'T QUITE GO ALONG WITH THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH, ANDTHE GEFS PLUME DIAGRAM SHOWS ONLY A HANDFUL OF INDIVIDUAL MEMBERSWITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING THAT TIME FRAME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 How far south can that line last? Those storms might be feeding off the boundary between the air and water. They're going strong still, especially that one dropping down Lake Winnebago. Anvils tops streaming overhead here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 14, 2015 Share Posted August 14, 2015 What do you mean? I was just talking about here (in this forum)...I don't know about discussion elsewhere. The GFS now only has 3 runs of relative agreement. I'd be highly surprised if it doesn't change drastically in the next 4 days. And the last time Dr. Forbes put this region in a D4 outlook area, this is how it turned out... edit: I also meant D5-D6 in my original post...woops I meant that solution is pretty crazy (impressive). Yeah, those were some busts... but it happens to the best of us, literally. This run is falsely over convective in the warm sector too early in the day. The issue with the run is convective feedback from Tuesday evening's storms. You can see it in the VV fields at 700/850. That said the strong dynamics are still there and the system is significant. Gotcha. That makes sense... I've still got stuff to learn. I didn't know if that was legit convection... don't know how to discriminate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Gotta say, that line in SE WISCO looks beautiful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 MCS maintenance probabilities and a downstream environment characterized by moderate instability and marginal wind shear may support these storms hanging onto some intensity as they approach the Chicago area later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 That storm should've had a warning I think for MKE county, it was the most intense sub-severe storm I've witnessed. Tree limbs were blowing and covered the road at times, the winds I could imagine gusted to at least 60mph for short spurts at least, and just looking at the intensity and forward speed as it bowed south, hard to believe only an SPS was issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 That storm should've had a warning I think for MKE county, it was the most intense sub-severe storm I've witnessed. Tree limbs were blowing and covered the road at times, the winds I could imagine gusted to at least 60mph for short spurts at least, and just looking at the intensity and forward speed as it bowed south, hard to believe only an SPS was issued. A little bit surprised the Storm Prediction Center didn't at least put a mesoscale discussion up for the area. They did around 3, but there were numerous reports of large hail this afternoon and many damaging wind reports after the 4-5 p.m. time frame. There's a decent quall line now moving toward the eastern WI/IL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Aaaaand its gone Storm recycled many times so idk yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 My friend in Jackson,MI just said they saw a funnel cloud which caused roughly 60mph wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Great looking line moving in. Mammatus clouds roll cloud all moving in. A lot of lightning with this line as well. Will have a sweet video loaded shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 15, 2015 Share Posted August 15, 2015 Welp the line split/died before it got here and now it is filling back in to my SE to SW. DTW shield is pretty strong I must say. I will admit the lightning is pretty impressive especially to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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