Thundersnow12 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Yeah 40-50kts at 925mb and >50kts at 850mb tomorrow evening, pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Little bit of agitation here in NW IL...a few of them have some decent verticle growth visibly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Continuous thunder now to the southwest...also some solid shafts now visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 looks like some stuff popped up on radar in NW IL... seems to be decaying rather rapidly, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Severe t-storm watch out for just west of the TC. Roughly from St Cloud to Mankato, MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Severe t-storm watch out for just west of the TC. Roughly from St Cloud to Mankato, MN. What was that about? Not even one storm popped up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 What was that about? Not even one storm popped up? Cap was stronger than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 Storms starting to fire now with the noc noc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 New SPC day 1 outlook out now, they upgraded almost all of Lower Michigan to Enh risk. 30% wind and hail chances here now, I'm kind of excited, but hoping the clouds from the stuff popping in Wisconsin now doesn't ruin my CAPE for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2015 Share Posted August 2, 2015 New SPC day 1 outlook out now, they upgraded almost all of Lower Michigan to Enh risk. 30% wind and hail chances here now, I'm kind of excited, but hoping the clouds from the stuff popping in Wisconsin now doesn't ruin my CAPE for tomorrow Definitely mixed signals for sure as far as the convection across WI and potential cloud debris issues.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 A quieter week may give way to some ROF action next week...a couple of troughs on either end of the CONUS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 A quieter week may give way to some ROF action next week...a couple of troughs on either end of the CONUS Im liking the look for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 5, 2015 Share Posted August 5, 2015 Sounding good DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015 VALID 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... GIVEN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DESCRIBED IN THE D3 OUTLOOK VALID FOR FRIDAY...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE. HOWEVER...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE DO SEEM TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT AT LEAST ONE ASPECT OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK. THE AMPLITUDE OF THE MIDLEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS AND EXPANDS NWD INTO CENTRAL CANADA. AS THIS PROCESS UNFOLDS /IF IT UNFOLDS/ UPPER TROUGHS ON BOTH COASTS WILL LIKEWISE AMPLIFY/DEEPEN. IN ADDITION...THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...OCCURRING AROUND THIS TIME OF YEAR...TENDS TO SUPPORT EPISODIC MCS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST...ON THE NRN/NERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE WHERE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TEND TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WHEN CAPPING CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH DIABATIC AND SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES. D5/SUN SEEMS TO BE THE FIRST IN A SEQUENCE OF DAYS WHEN CONDITIONS MAY COME TOGETHER TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/CORN-BELT. HOWEVER...TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION ARE SUCH THAT CONFIDENCE IN DELINEATING A RISK AREA IS LOW. DISCREPANCIES IN THE MINOR DETAILS THAT MATTER FOR SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING ONLY INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND PREDICTABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY OTHER DAILY OUTLOOK AREAS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 D3 with numerous question marks for evolution but marginal risk there for most of Iowa and a decent chunk of IL into Indiana... Next week still shows some decent potential as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0344 AM CDT THU AUG 06 2015 VALID 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER NOAM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE S-CNTRL U.S. EXPANDS NORTH INTO CNTRL CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND EAST COASTS. IT IS POSSIBLE IN SUCH A PATTERN TO EXPERIENCE EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO EAST COAST...ON THE EDGE OF THE PLAINS ANTICYCLONE...AS DISTURBANCES TRACK SEWD IN THE FASTER FLOW ON ITS PERIPHERY. HOWEVER...A COMPARISON OF LATEST GFS AND EURO SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE COMPLEX ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE DURING THE PERIOD. THESE DIFFERENCES RESULT IN PART FROM WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OR ENHANCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MS VALLEY FROM D4/SUN INTO D5/MON. AS THIS POSSIBLE MCS AND ASSOCIATED MCV/SHORTWAVE TRACK E-SEWD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE APPALACHIANS...LATEST EURO DEVELOPS A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS IMPULSE WHEN COMPARED TO GFS. THE EURO FORECASTS A STRONG NEGATIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EVOLVE OVER DELMARVA BY EARLY D7/WED...ACCOMPANIED BY AN UNUSUALLY DEEP SURFACE LOW NEAR NYC. MEANWHILE...LATEST GFS IS MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THIS MCV/TROUGH AND ONLY MANAGES A WEAK 1010MB SURFACE LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND BY WED. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF DOES HOWEVER SUPPORT HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD BY MIDWEEK BUT THIS COULD JUST AS EASILY LIMIT POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION AND SEVERE WEATHER RISK. THESE COMPLEXITIES...AS WELL AS OTHER YET-TO-FORM CONVECTIVE PERTURBATIONS LIKELY TO ORBIT THE AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGE...SUPPORT LOW SEVERE WEATHER PREDICTABILITY FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. ..CARBIN.. 08/06/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 6, 2015 Share Posted August 6, 2015 For the short term my forecast is just showing highs in the upper 70s and 20-30% chances of storms starting tomorrow. ...fairly quiet looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Some activity popping in McHenry sagging southeast. Needed rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Is it just me or does the storm near lansing, mi look interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Some activity popping in McHenry sagging southeast. Needed rain My 7 year old ran inside and said "D, a couple towers to the north coming this way".... A proud moment....and a happy moment because we need the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 activity should stay northwest of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Today is a little more interesting. Have had some heavy downpours, thunder and really small hail in Racine the last hour. Looks like Chicagoland will not be spared the rain. Plenty of cells heading in from the northwest. Severe T-storm warning for Milwaukee County. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1155 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015WIC079-089-133-101700-/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-150810T1700Z/OZAUKEE WI-MILWAUKEE WI-WAUKESHA WI-1155 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2015...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT FORSOUTH CENTRAL OZAUKEE...MILWAUKEE AND EASTERN WAUKESHA COUNTIES...AT 1154 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER WHITEFISHBAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MILWAUKEE...WEST ALLIS...WAUWATOSA...BROOKFIELD...GREENFIELD...MENOMONEE FALLS...MEQUON...WHITEFISH BAY...GREENDALE...BROWN DEER...ST. FRANCIS...FOX POINT...BAYSIDE...WEST MILWAUKEE...THIENSVILLE...BUTLER...RIVER HILLS...MILWAUKEE HOAN BRIDGE...SHOREWOOD ANDGLENDALE.PEOPLE ATTENDING THE WISCONSIN STATE FAIR SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTERIMMEDIATELY!PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ABUILDING.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Cell SE of Rockford looks decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Today is a little more interesting. Have had some heavy downpours, thunder and really small hail in Racine the last hour. Looks like Chicagoland will not be spared the rain. Plenty of cells heading in from the northwest. Severe T-storm warning for Milwaukee County. Yeah, that was a very solid storm, garden variety imby (though the best drink from mother nature we've had in a month or two) but some quarter to even a rogue report of golf ball sized hail just NW of here in Washington County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Nice unexpected storm here. Very heavy rain for a short time with quite a bit of slow rumbling thunder. Some small hail fell nearby. Picked up 0.56" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Nice trifecta lined up on the LM shore from Manitowoc down to Port Washington. All nearly stationary. The old hood in Aurora getting a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Does it trouble anyone like it does me when you encounter a svr warning that says a cell is moving east? And then you look at the radar and it is clearly moving se or ne. I've seen this with warnings from multiple offices. Consider the svr warned cell affecting southern Montgomery and western Hendricks counties west of Indpls at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 activity should stay northwest of the city bust, micro storm right overhead as I step out of the subway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 At 1:30 pm we got heavy rains that lasted 20 minutes and its been raining since with another uptick right now. Pretty dark. There is a lot of high radar returns converging right on me. No thunder...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 Mini line that just rolled through here packed a bunch. Some of the heaviest rain I've seen in a while, streets flooded up real quick. Was storm watching on the porch and saw some dude caught in the storm holding a box of pizza. Invited him to take shelter on my porch, got a free slice of pizza out of it. Win win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted August 10, 2015 Share Posted August 10, 2015 bust, micro storm right overhead as I step out of the subway Maybe a couple more rounds for ya too perhaps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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