ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 GFS has an MCS forming in Iowa mid-afternoon on Sunday with extreme instability downstream. Would be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Apparently a separate tornado with the cell southeast of LAF yesterday. IND had a survey team out again yesterday looking for evidence of a third tornado somewhere around the LAF area. Nothing has been released yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 IND had a survey team out again yesterday looking for evidence of a third tornado somewhere around the LAF area. Nothing has been released yet. I'l be interested to hear. I believe they are talking about the west side of West Laf, near the Menards. I drove out this way to go to the store this evening and saw numerous large trees and limbs down. I saw them down along Klondike north of 52 (or whatever Klondike turns into north of 52) starting at the Menards and going north about 3/4 mile. Several it looks like were across the road. I didn't see any damage to the homes although one house had a very close call with a very large evergreen. Hard to tell for sure - houses are a bit off the road and I was trying not to end up in the creek along it. My front seat, 30 second observation noted that most of the trees seemed to be laying down in the same direction (aligned with storm direction) so not sure if tornado damage. The final report will say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 I'l be interested to hear. I believe they are talking about the west side of West Laf, near the Menards. I drove out this way to go to the store this evening and saw numerous large trees and limbs down. I saw them down along Klondike north of 52 (or whatever Klondike turns into north of 52) starting at the Menards and going north about 3/4 mile. Several it looks like were across the road. I didn't see any damage to the homes although one house had a very close call with a very large evergreen. Hard to tell for sure - houses are a bit off the road and I was trying not to end up in the creek along it. My front seat, 30 second observation noted that most of the trees seemed to be laying down in the same direction (aligned with storm direction) so not sure if tornado damage. The final report will say for sure. Someone from WTHR asked about Klondike/Taft roads along 52 on NWSChat. Forecaster said that was determined to be straight line winds. He also said that will be no more surveys for that county. However, yesterday on Chat a met said that they would be investigating a possible third. I don't know if he was talking about the 52 damage or they were surveying in another county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Someone from WTHR asked about Klondike/Taft roads along 52 on NWSChat. Forecaster said that was determined to be straight line winds. He also said that will be no more surveys for that county. However, yesterday on Chat a met said that they would be investigating a possible third. I don't know if he was talking about the 52 damage or they were surveying in another county. AHah, interesting. Yeah, then the 3rd area must have been something else. Thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 The weekend has looked interesting for the last few days...at least more interesting than the last week or so... IMBY focused...A few runs in a row of a decaying line impacting LOT Tuesday night or Wednesday morning at some point...the strength and timing have been in flux...but some sort of impact looks likely (albeit on the weaker side of the spectrum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 27, 2015 Share Posted July 27, 2015 If the morning stuff gets out of the way early enough, things could be real interesting here tomorrow afternoon. The cold front will be lagging way behind morning convection. If the atmosphere recovers, things will explode. A big "if", but the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 It's a long way out, but the Saturday-Sunday time period looks to have potential for a good portion of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 The supercell in Iowa kinda stands out on the satellite. Was warned for 80 MPH winds, down to 70 MPH. According to the new warning, they're expecting the cell to make a right turn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Ya, looks like the IA storms will make the curve se as Cyclone referenced in the July discussion. Could be an active evening in west central and central IL though. NWS not expecting anything this far east IMBY tonight with the action scheduled for tomorrow. But stranger things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 It's a long way out, but the Saturday-Sunday time period looks to have potential for a good portion of the subforum. My cousin in nw IN tells me that Skilling was already talking about it on WGN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Ya, looks like the IA storms will make the curve se as Cyclone referenced in the July discussion. Could be an active evening in west central and central IL though. NWS not expecting anything this far east IMBY tonight with the action scheduled for tomorrow. But stranger things have happened. Looks like it's riding down the edge of the greatest instability... right along the heat advisories My cousin in nw IN tells me that Skilling was already talking about it on WGN. SPC briefly talked about it DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015 VALID 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE VARIABILITY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT DEGREE OF TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS OF THIS VARIABILITY...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A SEMI-PERSISTENT BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST/NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO DAILY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISKS. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN DAILY DETAILS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY/DAY 5...AND ACROSS A BROADER PART OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY DAYS 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 NAM and GFS are picking up on an event for day 3 over the Great Lakes. NAM has 5000+ CAPE overlapped with 40-50 knots shear... GFS has 4000 CAPE with 30-40 knots shear. Both are favorable for some big time storms. Watch out though... SPC's day 2 outlook mentions the possibility of upscale growth into an MCS. It's MCS roulette season. Edit: I just figured out NAM's 850mb-500mb lapse rates for south Wisconsin/north Illinois are 7.5 C/km. ...damn saturated atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Sunday Night is beginning to interest me in terms of a nocturnal MCS threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 No chatter about Sunday? Northern IL off the 12z NAM with a 998mb low over MKE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 zzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Sunday looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 zzzzzzzzzz ^^^Sums up this Summer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Lmao. zzzzing an event less than 48 hours away with those parameters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Lmao. zzzzing an event less than 48 hours away with those parameters? With the unpredictability of MCS's, I've filed that under "I'll believe it when I see it". That's the downside of MCS season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Probably another late initiation around here tomorrow, close to 00z. Sfc to 6km shear at 40-50kts and 850 mb winds approach 50kts by 00z. Wouldn't be surprised if there a couple supercells at first before transitioning to a small MCS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Yeah ok I'm calling a day 2 slight risk for the Great Lakes for now due to MCS uncertainty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Nice conditional threat for Sunday. Guess we'll wait and see how the leftover convection from the night before behaves. I would say if there is leftover convection from the night before, but we all know how most of the setups have gone this season. There will surely be leftover storms/cloudiness to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Day 1 slight pushed farther north, also 5% tor for N IA/S MN. GIVEN STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE SWLY LLJ IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHTWITH THIS JET VEERING WITH TIME ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. UPSCALEGROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S IS POSSIBLE WITH ONE MCS DEVELOPINGS/SEWD THROUGH IA...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS AND EVENTUAL MCSDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL MN INTO WI. ALTHOUGHDAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AFTERDARK...VERTICALLY VEERING WINDS AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVICINITY OF THE LLJ SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT COULD PERSIST INTO THEEARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN IA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 With the unpredictability of MCS's, I've filed that under "I'll believe it when I see it". That's the downside of MCS season. And besides that, as things stand now, timing sucks for this immediate area. Looks good for Northern IL and NW Indiana (as has been the case this entire Spring/Summer) though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Liking the I-90 to I-94 area across MN. Warm front looks to setup around the I-94 corridor later this afternoon. A lot of the cams also showing convection firing closer to 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Another miss to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Day 1 slight pushed farther north, also 5% tor for N IA/S MN. Huge change in the 1630z update... no more 5% tornado or 15% hatched hail. South Iowa went from a slight risk to general thunderstorms in just one update. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 1, 2015 Author Share Posted August 1, 2015 Another miss to my south Not much to suggest that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Yeah ok I'm calling a day 2 slight risk for the Great Lakes for now due to MCS uncertainty Finally got it ...LOWER MI...SERN WI...NRN IL AND INDIANA...EARLY DAY RAIN AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI AND LOWER MI RELATED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FROM ERN WI INTO LOWER MI...BUT STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER TROUGH WILL HELP SPREAD INSTABILITY NEWD BACK ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW/TROUGH...WITH A CLEAR MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTING A ROBUST LINEAR MCS AFFECTING ERN WI AND MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN MI IN THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME...THEN SINKING SEWD WITH TIME AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING NRN IL AND IND. RATHER IMPRESSIVE MEAN WINDS IN THE LOWER 3KM FURTHER SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE OUTLOOK UPGRADE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. LATE TIME OF DAY AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ACTUAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE AN ENH AREA AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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