jojo762 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 very impressive VWP from MPX right ahead of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT FOR WESTERNHENNEPIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WRIGHT AND NORTHERN CARVER COUNTIES...AT 1205 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WATERTOWN...OR15 MILES SOUTH OF BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. Awesome loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Umm... image.jpg image.jpg Wow that really happened fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Southern part of the bow has started to gust out, and has shown signs of weakening... But the C/N part near MPX is still goin' strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 CARS FLIPPED AND STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED. DUAL POL RADAR OBSERVED TORNADO FOR 2 TO 3 MINUTES BEFORE WEAKENING. TORNADO HEADED EAST NORTHEAST. EXTENT OF DAMAGE UNKNOW(MPX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1458NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1223 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/SERN MN...W-CNTRL/SWRN WICONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432...VALID 180523Z - 180630ZTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 432CONTINUES.SUMMARY...BOWING QLCS OVER THE WRN TWIN CITES METRO AREA SHOULDCONTINUE E/SEWD WITH AT LEAST STRONG WIND GUSTS AND A RISK FOR BRIEFQLCS TORNADO OR TWO. UNLESS RAPID DIMINISHING OF CONVECTIVEINTENSITY OCCURS SOON...DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE APPEARS LIKELY.DISCUSSION...BOWING QLCS WITH A SWATH OF AROUND 40-KT MEASURED WINDGUSTS SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH THE HEART OF THE TWIN CITIES METROAREA DURING THE NEXT HALF HOUR GIVEN FORWARD EWD MOVEMENT OF ABOUT40-45 KT. A QUITE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH MODIFIED FOR THISSTORM MOTION SUPPORTS 0-1 SRH AROUND 500 M2/S2 WHICH WILL FAVOR ARISK FOR A QLCS TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION TO STRONG WIND GUSTS/35-50 KT/. THIS BOW MAY TURN A BIT MORE SELY WITH TIME ALONG THE MSRIVER AS IT LIKELY RIDES ALONG THE THETA-E/MLCAPE GRADIENT...WITHTHE NRN EXTENT WEAKENING GIVEN A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER MOST OFNRN WI...GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 07/18/2015ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Well, about to be whooped pretty good. Lightning to the west is extremely vivid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 This new model was the only one to suggest that Monday's MCS wouldn't die out... but instead, persist/strengthen. Most of the ensembles have at least some MCS remnants in the OH/IN/MI tri-state area with convection getting stronger. I think the slight risk is gonna get shifted and/or expanded south and east to include northern Ohio, northern Indiana, and southern Michigan. Southeast Ohio and west Pennsylvania might get at least a marginal risk. Anyway... that's my predictions. Let's see how wrong I am Just for fun... its ensemble mean has a LI <-14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Umm... image.jpg image.jpg Yeah doesn't get more obvious than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 This new model was the only one to suggest that Monday's MCS wouldn't die out... but instead, persist/strengthen. Most of the ensembles have at least some MCS remnants in the OH/IN/MI tri-state area with convection getting stronger. I think the slight risk is gonna get shifted and/or expanded south and east to include northern Ohio, northern Indiana, and southern Michigan. Southeast Ohio and west Pennsylvania might get at least a marginal risk. Anyway... that's my predictions. Let's see how wrong I am Just for fun... its ensemble mean has a LI <-14 Really far off. SPC mentions possibility of enhanced risk. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS FL... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHWEST STATES... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES. ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX VICINITY THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A SEMI-PROGRESSIVE/MODERATELY STRONG BAND OF WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE MOST NOTABLE LARGER-SCALE FEATURE WILL BE AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AND CORN BELT. ...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... THE REMNANTS OF TWO MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IA AND NEARBY UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES. EARLY-DAY /NEAR AND JUST AFTER 12Z/ SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LIKELY...BUT THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS/S INCLUDING OUTFLOW/RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL BE IMPORTANT FORECAST FACTORS AND POINTS OF MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS AND VERTICAL SHEAR /40-55 KT EFFECTIVE/ WILL OVERSPREAD FAR EASTERN MN INTO WI AND NEARBY UPPER GREAT LAKES...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK TRENDS MORE UNCERTAIN/CONDITIONAL INTO NORTHERN WI/UPPER MI BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED EARLY-DAY UNCERTAINTIES. THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS IA/NORTHERN IL INTO SOUTHERN WI AND POTENTIALLY LOWER MI...ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONGER FORCING/WINDS ALOFT. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3000-5000 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THAT CORRIDOR BY PEAK HEATING. SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS INCREASE NEAR THE COLD FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. A TORNADO RISK MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WI/EASTERN IA...POTENTIALLY MAXIMIZED NEAR WHERE THE COLD FRONT INTERSECTS ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT...AND POTENTIALLY PARTS OF MI AS LOW-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING. CLUSTERS OF STORMS/BOWS MAY EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASED DAMAGING WIND RISK...AIDED BY WHAT ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADILY STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS /40-60 KT BETWEEN 3-8 KM AGL/. GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS AND A STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES /ENHANCED RISK/ MAY ULTIMATELY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION...INCLUDING PARTS OF WI AND NEARBY IA/NORTHERN IL...PENDING LATER-DAY DETAILS REGARDING EARLY-DAY OUTFLOW/RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Just has peanut size hail here for about 5 mins. Awesome storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Flying Cloud airport gusted to 56 mph behind the main line. Velocity showing 40-55kts less than 1000ft abv sfc. Edit: 60 mph at MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Tree limbs down, power is out. Very nice wind gusts even after the initial line has gone thru. Impressive storm. Things refiring out to the west by Montevideo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 70mph wind gusts with an apparent heat burst out in western IA earlier. Those are always pretty cool. No pun intended lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Damage pictures/videos from the potential tornado in SE Tippecanoe county earlier. http://www.jconline.com/story/news/2015/07/17/home-damaged-in-storms/30317787/ PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 907 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0438 PM TORNADO 12 SE LAFAYETTE 40.29N 86.71W 07/17/2015 TIPPECANOE IN NWS STORM SURVEY NWS SURVEY REVEALED EF1 DAMAGE WITH APPROXIMATELY 97 MPH WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF TIPPECANOE COUNTY...SOUTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 52 AND COUNTY ROAD 900 SOUTH. OBSERVED DAMAGE INCLUDED A COLLAPSED GARAGE...DOWNED TREES...AND AT LEAST ONE HOME WITH VINYL SIDING REMOVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 This new model was the only one to suggest that Monday's MCS wouldn't die out... but instead, persist/strengthen. Most of the ensembles have at least some MCS remnants in the OH/IN/MI tri-state area with convection getting stronger. I think the slight risk is gonna get shifted and/or expanded south and east to include northern Ohio, northern Indiana, and southern Michigan. Southeast Ohio and west Pennsylvania might get at least a marginal risk. Anyway... that's my predictions. Let's see how wrong I am Just for fun... its ensemble mean has a LI <-14 I like my call now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Nice excerpt from ILN: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/...BOWING ECHO SEGMENT OVER MICHIGAN WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST AND LAY OUTA NW-SE BOUNDARY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO SOMEWHERE NEAR A DAYTON-CHILLICOTHE OR PORTSMOUTH LINE. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTEDTO SPARK ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANDTHERE IS A NON-ZERO POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO RIDE SOUTHEAST ALONGTHIS BOUNDARY FROM THE CHICAGO AREA THIS LATE EVENING ANDOVERNIGHT.MAJORITY OF THIS SCENARIO COMES FROM THE 0Z RUN OF THE NMM AND ALOT OF CREATIVE INTERPRETATION. OTHER MODELS DO NOT SEE THECONVECTION IN MICHIGAN OR FIRE COMPLEXES WHERE THEY OBVIOUSLYARENT AND WILL NOT BE IN THE NEAR FUTURE. EVEN THE NMM IS RUNNINGABOUT 2 HOURS BEHIND THE COMPLEX BUT THIS IS TYPICAL AND DOES NOTCAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL CONCERN THAT IT IS RUNNING OFF IN ANYAPPRECIABLE MANNER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 New D2 resembles an event from a few years ago...it's showing up on CIPS too. 7-10-13 was the worst storm I've ever experience here in Columbus, worse in fact than the 6-29 derecho locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 New D2 resembles an event from a few years ago...it's showing up on CIPS too. 7-10-13 was the worst storm I've ever experience here in Columbus, worse in fact than the 6-29 derecho locally. I mentioned that analog in the main severe weather thread. Definitely looks to be the top choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 New D2 resembles an event from a few years ago...it's showing up on CIPS too. 7-10-13 was the worst storm I've ever experience here in Columbus, worse in fact than the 6-29 derecho locally. I was wondering why I don't remember that... I looked at the event, I remember that nice and clear now. The squall split right over me. I remember looking at those black clouds to my east while I was standing on completely dry pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 I mentioned that analog in the main severe weather thread. Definitely looks to be the top choice. Didn't even know there was a main thread ...I've just been refreshing this page, probably should have checked. After reading it though; lol at https://learnzillion...st-whole-number Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Apparently a separate tornado with the cell southeast of LAF yesterday. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 213 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0433 PM TORNADO 10 SE LAFAYETTE 40.31N 86.74W 07/17/2015 TIPPECANOE IN NWS STORM SURVEY NWS SURVEY REVEALED EF1 DAMAGE WITH APPROXIMATELY 100 MPH WINDS AFFECTING A RESIDENCE SOUTH OF NEWCASTLE ROAD...BETWEEN COUNTY ROAD 775 EAST AND COUNTY ROAD 900 EAST IN SOUTHEAST TIPPECANOE COUNTY. NUMEROUS TREES WEST OF THE AFFECTED RESIDENCE HAD TOPS SHEARED OFF OR WERE DOWNED COMPLETELY AND A GARAGE AT THE RESIDENCE WAS DESTROYED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 GFS has been consistent with another severe event next weekend as a rather strong short wave travels atop the central US ridge. More 80 degree dew points for Illinois.with 200-250 0-3km SRH... however, gone are the days of 50-60 knot effective shear. GFS puts out 20-30 knot shear at best, with the best CAPE/shear combination in Minnesota Tonight's GFS then brings the severe threat into SE MI/OH/KY with the best parameters along the warm front. ILN already mentions this event BY SUNDAY...ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASEIN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOWALOFT...COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY...MAY BRING A THREAT OFSHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THIS IS WAY OUT IN THE EXTENDED...ATYPICAL SUMMER 30 PERCENT CHANCE WILL BE EMPLOYED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 GFS has been consistent with another severe event next weekend as a rather strong short wave travels atop the central US ridge. More 80 degree dew points for Illinois.with 200-250 0-3km SRH... however, gone are the days of 50-60 knot effective shear. GFS puts out 20-30 knot shear at best, with the best CAPE/shear combination in Minnesota Actually it has 40-50 kts of 0-6 km shear near the wind shift in central MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Actually it has 40-50 kts of 0-6 km shear near the wind shift in central MN. You're right. I didn't word that right. I was kinda focusing on Illinois and Wisconsin since that's where most of the interest is on this forum. That's what happens when I try to write something past Midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Looks to me like the new 4 day outlook that will come out overnight will have to highlight most of Minnesota for Friday 7/24. The 12z 07/20 GFS and the ECMWF are both hinting at severe possibilities. MPX has adjusted the TS HOPWRF to start it's run at 12am on Friday, and it concurs. I can't show the Euro but it has convection breaking out a bit further south than that, and about 6 hrs earlier. Edit: Timing issues are still a question, but I think the Day 4 outlook could go 30% north of MSP, and 15% from MSP and points south. Thoughts anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 By the way, I won't start a severe threat thread until timing issue are resolved, and to be honest I don't know which forum to put it in, this one or the western, but given the downstream implications, (which I haven't looked at) I am leaning to this sub forum. I am really busy on Tuesday and won't have much info available to me, so if someone else wants to start the thread it's fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 Looks to me like the new 4 day outlook that will come out overnight will have to highlight most of Minnesota for Friday 7/24. The 12z 07/20 GFS and the ECMWF are both hinting at severe possibilities. MPX has adjusted the TS HOPWRF to start it's run at 12am on Friday, and it concurs. I can't show the Euro but it has convection breaking out a bit further south than that, and about 6 hrs earlier. Edit: Timing issues are still a question, but I think the Day 4 outlook could go 30% north of MSP, and 15% from MSP and points south. Thoughts anyone? That model seems a bit robust Dunno what Euro's parameters look like, but GFS has been solid. The best CAPE/shear overlap is in Minnesota (3000+ CAPE/40 0-6km shear)... but the SRH isn't great (100-150). There's a decent CAPE/shear overlap along the warm front in Iowa and Ilinois (3000+/30 0-6km shear)... but the SRH is higher (200-350). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 The CIPS for the GFS at hour 84, about one day earlier than what I have been talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted July 20, 2015 Share Posted July 20, 2015 This is the GFS idea for the Duluth area, thus why I said a 30% chance for north of MSP. Having said that I wonder if this is to far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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