vortex Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 For how long was it on the ground? 1.3 miles http://www.weather.gov/ilx/16jul15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Damage pictures/videos from the potential tornado in SE Tippecanoe county earlier. http://www.jconline.com/story/news/2015/07/17/home-damaged-in-storms/30317787/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 OFB from tonight's Midwest MCS potentially turning south tomorrow over Indiana and Ohio. With the instability that's forecast, that might get something going with more concentrated forcing. I'm interested to see how the 00Z NSSL WRF handles it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 OFB from tonight's Midwest MCS potentially turning south tomorrow over Indiana and Ohio. With the instability that's forecast, that might get something going with more concentrated forcing. I'm interested to see how the 00Z NSSL WRF handles it... I wonder about the possibility of it not dying, just like 7/12-13. I know for a fact, HRRR and RAP had no idea the severe MCS would continue into the regions it affected. The only model that I'm aware of that had it was the NCAR. Even if the MCS dies out... watch out for the outflow boundary. ILN said in today's afternoon AFD that there's no forcing mechanism despite "substantial buoyancy". Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Boy that MCS about to enter into MN is cooking with gas, just had a 92mph gust measured by a mesonet station in SD and there are several tornado warnings associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Nice light show to my south right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Could be a derecho in progress... we already have 3 significant wind reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Boy that MCS about to enter into MN is cooking with gas, just had a 92mph gust measured by a mesonet station in SD and there are several tornado warnings associated with it. A few reports of baseball size hail thrown in there as well. Might dive south and miss MSP. Based purely on radar trends attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 This image comes to mind given simply the radar appearance. I don't know how the upper levels compare but with 6000+ CAPE, I wouldn't rule something interesting out. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul112011page.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 This image comes to mind given simply the radar appearance. I don't know how the upper levels compare but with 6000+ CAPE, I wouldn't rule something interesting out. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul112011page.htm It'll be interesting to see what SPC does. When they made the day 2 outlook, I'm not sure if they were expecting the clusters tonight to grow into an MCS. All the models are probably going to struggle with how this MCS moves. Time to just sit back and watch the models flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Highest LSR speed I've seen in a very long time...if not the the highest I've ever seen. Likely beginnings of a derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 You were wondering about how the upper winds look... here's a glimpse July 10, 2011 (first day) http://i.imgur.com/16HzSh5.gif July 17, 2015 http://i.imgur.com/huKZkwM.gif Morning of July 11, 2011 http://i.imgur.com/FsbflR9.gif Morning of July 18, 2015 RAP forecast http://i.imgur.com/X6vd3k6.gif That derecho family caught SPC off guard too. July 10 verification http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_v_20110710_1200.gif July 11 verification http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2011/day1otlk_v_20110711_1200.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Nice light show to my south right now. Great light show to my south still now from all the way up here Got 1.7 during the downpours earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 97 MPH wind gust just came in. That's 4 significant wind reports... #1) 76 MPH #2) 90 MPH #3) 92 MPH #4) 97 MPH SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGSDC029-039-051-057-180345-/O.NEW.KABR.SV.W.0133.150718T0257Z-150718T0345Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD957 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ABERDEEN HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...DEUEL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HAMLIN COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEASTERN CODINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT* AT 956 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTH OF MARIETTA TO NEAR CLEAR LAKE TO NEARLAKE NORDEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS.HAZARD...90 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRISMAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILEHOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. HOMES ANDBUSINESSES WILL HAVE SUBSTANTIAL ROOF AND WINDOW DAMAGE.EXPECT EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...CLEAR LAKE AROUND 1000 PM CDT.GARY AND BRANDT AROUND 1005 PM CDT.TORONTO AND LAKE COCHRANE REC AREA AROUND 1010 PM CDT.LAKE POINSETT AROUND 1015 PM CDT.ASTORIA AROUND 1020 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 97 MPH wind gust just came in. That's 4 significant wind reports... #1) 76 MPH #2) 90 MPH #3) 92 MPH #4) 97 MPH Usually when characterizing a derecho they like to have the reports spread out a bit. I believe all 4 were in the same CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Usually when characterizing a derecho they like to have the reports spread out a bit. I believe all 4 were in the same CWA. Oh, well, that makes sense. Intense parameters downstream... 5000-7000 SB/MUCAPE, 30 knot LLJ, 400-600 effective SRH, 40-50 knot effective bulk shear http://i.imgur.com/8vVCLLx.png http://i.imgur.com/qghbYLB.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 This image comes to mind given simply the radar appearance. I don't know how the upper levels compare but with 6000+ CAPE, I wouldn't rule something interesting out. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul112011page.htm One of my personal favorite events from back when I lived near Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Oh, well, that makes sense. Intense parameters downstream... 5000-7000 SB/MUCAPE, 30 knot LLJ, 400-600 effective SRH, 40-50 knot effective bulk shear http://i.imgur.com/8vVCLLx.png http://i.imgur.com/qghbYLB.png SCP of 50+ and STP of 11 also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 T-storm watch extended east into MSP metro. With the winds this thing is packing, I was starting to wonder if they'd pop a watch to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Southern OFB looks to collide with the northern MCS in about an hour...very favorable thermo environment out ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Big towers blowing up to my west...frequent lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Big towers blowing up to my west...frequent lightning with very heavy rain in NE IL unexpected development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 That area in southern Will/northern Kankakee has been redeveloping. Might need a FFW there soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Not stop spider web CCs directly overhead...quality show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Not stop spider web CCs directly overhead...quality show Cell northwest of Joliet looking a bit frisky. Probably some extremely heavy rain and maybe some hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Cell northwest of Joliet looking a bit frisky. Probably some extremely heavy rain and maybe some hail. Indeed...been listening to a low pitched roar for a good 10 minutes now between thunders just to my immediate SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 18, 2015 Author Share Posted July 18, 2015 Indeed...been listening to a low pitched roar for a good 10 minutes now between thunders just to my immediate SSW Reflectivity seems like it came down a tad now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Umm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Reflectivity seems like it came down a tad now. Might be transferring...I see little towers popping to my NW now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 18, 2015 Share Posted July 18, 2015 Umm... image.jpg image.jpg EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1205 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 MNC019-053-171-180530- /O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-150718T0530Z/ HENNEPIN MN-WRIGHT MN-CARVER MN- 1205 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT FOR WESTERN HENNEPIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WRIGHT AND NORTHERN CARVER COUNTIES... AT 1205 AM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WATERTOWN...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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