blue60007 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Campus alert just went out for the tornado warning. Really wish someone would look at the radar first or notice the appearance of blue skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I wonder if there's accumulating hail near Richmond, IN. That severe warned cell has been sitting there for a while. Radarscope estimates 2" of rain has fallen in the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Things looking pretty saucy looking towards the Svr warning to the immediate northwest of Crystal Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 88/76 here. I'm at work praying that we don't get a big storm over the course this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Second time Lincoln has dropped the ball on a storm in less than a week, similar situation last Saturday with a storm in DEC with rotation that went unwarned for some time, before finally getting a severe warning as a good hook echo and rotation signature showed up over long creek. I believe the Long Creek/Mt Zion area had some significant tree damage due to that storm. Yes the one last night should've had a warning and the one a week ago caused a good amount of damage in long creek roof/tree damage Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I don't think this was posted yet... But prelim rating from DVN for the Cameron, IL tornado was 125mph... Which is mid range EF2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 88/76 here. I'm at work praying that we don't get a big storm over the course this evening. Radar certainly doesn't look to be in your favor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 All this talk on Twitter/etc. of the 2% being the thing that goes crazy this year. That shouldn't have been the case from 1630z on (or at least it should've been upgraded to 5% at 20z). I don't really understand the lack of a tornado watch in this situation either since the parameter space was clearly rather favorable for tornadoes as my post earlier illustrated about the environment downstream of the storm that was near Burlington at the time (which went on to become the Monmouth/etc. cyclic supercell). 1500-2500+ J/kg MLCAPE coupled with 200-400 m2/s2 of effective SRH and low-mid 70s dewpoints isn't exactly something to play around with having semi-discrete storms in the area. There was also multi-model agreement that this type of sweet spot in west-central IL and SE IA was going to be in place this afternoon/evening. Sure I suppose hindsight is 20/20, but in this case I don't think you can really say that. Something tells me the particular outlook forecaster who released the 20z outlook had to a lot to play into this. Some of his material recently (and even not so recently) has been questionable at best. BTW, Saturday is increasingly catching my interest for the northern end of the sub-forum. That is quite a potent (especially for mid July) shortwave trough moving along the 49th parallel with the potential for strong destabilization out ahead of it. Of course, it also looks like the kind of setup that could easily get screwed up by the convection from late tomorrow. Bump. Yeah, Dial recently has had some pretty bad outlooks as far as tornado probs go. One of the happened last week as well. FWIW, on the MD they issued before the watch it was outlined in red (which typically means it'll be a TOR watch) which made sense given the wind profile in place. Find it hard to imagine that there won't be a significant enough tornado threat to warrant a TOR watch when we get SCP of 20+ and STP of ~3-4... I had thought the same stuff when they issued the SVR watch instead... Didn't make sense with all the parameters and a warm front in place that would only further enhance SRH and LLVL SHR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Cell out by Rockford forming a hook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Radar certainly doesn't look to be in your favor... It looks alright for the BG area for now. We already had a 1/2" earlier today so any more rain that shows up this evening will not be good. Should be nice and steamy tomorrow with a heat index of 105 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Bump. Yeah, Dial recently has had some pretty bad outlooks as far as tornado probs go. One of the happened last week as well. FWIW, on the MD they issued before the watch it was outlined in red (which typically means it'll be a TOR watch) which made sense given the wind profile in place. Find it hard to imagine that there won't be a significant enough tornado threat to warrant a TOR watch when we get SCP of 20+ and STP of ~3-4... I had thought the same stuff when they issued the SVR watch instead... Didn't make sense with all the parameters and a warm front in place that would only further enhance SRH and LLVL SHR. It wasn't Dial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 NAM is showing what would be near-record breaking instability for this region tomorrow and Sunday (MLCAPE values of 4000-5000 J/KG and LIs of -11 to -13). If it verifies, it would a shame if it went to waste... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 It wasn't Dial. oh whoops. I was talking about the 1630Z outlook I guess. Are you talking about Darrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 It looks alright for the BG area for now. We already had a 1/2" earlier today so any more rain that shows up this evening will not be good. Should be nice and steamy tomorrow with a heat index of 105 There's still the area in far Northern Indiana to watch out for. But it could sink by just to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Pingers in SE McHenry (I could hear them on the phone) Towers look sick to my north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 oh whoops. I was talking about the 1630Z outlook I guess. Are you talking about Darrow? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 So far I've managed to avoid the svr and flash flood warnings from today's action, being just barely to the ne of the action here in central IN. Wonder how long that will last. A friend of mine on the west side of Indpls was without power for three days from storms earlier in the week and just got it restored yesterday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Ended up with a ton of lightning and more super heavy rain. Clearing out nicely now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Flash flood warning now issued by LOT for the Kankakee and Iroquois area in nw IN and nw IL, an area that certainly doesn't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 I'm not one to call the NWS a liar, but it was showing rotation long before the 4 minute window they refer to. It should have be warned, period. And not to further beat a dead horse, but the 7/11 storm which went through Macon county showed off and on rotation as it entered their county from the north. Storm was never severe warned, until after a hook echo and strong rotation had developed over Mt Zion, and only then it received s severe warning. I am beginning to wonder if they are gun shy about issuing a tornado warning for fear of backlash in the event of a bust. However two blown/missed warnings in less than a week does not speak well for any office. Rated EF2 and no tornado warning. Not like they missed an EF0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Rated EF2 and no tornado warning. Not like they missed an EF0. For how long was it on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 9000 SBCAPE/7500 MLCAPE in SW IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 9000 SBCAPE/7500 MLCAPE in SW IA And SPC currently has a meso discussion out for ne Nebraska. Wow if that cap breaks and a complex rolls east through IA to IL overnight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 That CAPE max is likely bogus due to the malfunctioning obs. station at Clarinda, IA, which is currently showing a dewpoint of 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 That CAPE max is likely bogus due to the malfunctioning obs. station at Clarinda, IA, which is currently showing a dewpoint of 93.That OBS site is always off on high dp days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Decent storm here... Constant lightning/thunder, wind gusts of 40-45mph, and up to penny size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 That CAPE max is likely bogus due to the malfunctioning obs. station at Clarinda, IA, which is currently showing a dewpoint of 93. Ah yeah that is a bit anomalous. 91°F 33°C Humidity 100% Wind Speed S 13 mph Barometer 29.76 in Dewpoint 91°F (33°C) Visibility 10.00 mi Heat Index 137°F (58°C) Last update 17 Jul 5:55 pm CDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Looks like the svr warned storm coming in from the nw in IL is fizzling and will miss Alek as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Absolute buckets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 17, 2015 Author Share Posted July 17, 2015 Looks like the svr warned storm coming in from the nw in IL is fizzling and will miss Alek as usual. Alek turning into the Illinois version of hawkeye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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