Indystorm Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 SPC on Thursday morning says Monday May 11 is the day to watch for svr for much of our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Sunday looks potentially volatile near the low in Iowa/vicinity on several models, despite backed upper level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Sunday might be a potential chase as I head out on my trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Directional shear looks pretty good on Monday. GRR's really bullish with the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 The 12z Euro (and even the 12z GFS to a lesser extent) looks pretty decent synoptically in northern IL on Monday but thermodynamics are in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 Gil Sebenste's first thoughts on Sunday/Monday a second low pressure system rides along the front from thesouthern Plains into the Great Lakes, and let me tell you, this looks ugly forthe southern Plains on Saturday, Iowa, Illinois and Missouri on Sunday, andthen Illinois/southern Wisconsin/southern Michigan/Indiana on Monday IF thecurrent trends hold for severe weather. All modes of severe are possible(tornadoes, hail, high winds, and also flooding). Stay tuned as we get closerto Sunday and Monday. This could get ugly for parts of the Midwest and GreatLakes through this three day period as a powerful low pressure moves across thecentral portion of the U.S., from southwest to northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Incredible soundings coming out of IA for Sunday on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 A couple of choice soundings from Iowa, first is near Waterloo on the warm front, the second is near DSM in the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Just east of Quad Cities at 00z: Just east of DSM at the same time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Just east of Quad Cities at 00z: Just east of DSM at the same time: Wow, much less upper level backing than the soundings I looked at from the 12z Euro for that area. Scary stuff for the public, great from a chasing perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Had several prior commitments keeping me from chasing this week, including Sat, but that ends for Sun. Looks like a pretty solid setup. Chomping at the bit to get back out there after Apr 9th's crushing defeat lol. Liking somewhere in the western IA/eastern NE area at this point, but still a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Had several prior commitments keeping me from chasing this week, including Sat, but that ends for Sun. Looks like a pretty solid setup. Chomping at the bit to get back out there after Apr 9th's crushing defeat lol. Liking somewhere in the western IA/eastern NE area at this point, but still a long ways to go. Would've been lined up to go chasing this weekend as I'm off from work, but will be down in Houston TX through Monday. Good luck Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Would've been lined up to go chasing this weekend as I'm off from work, but will be down in Houston TX through Monday. Good luck Sunday! Thanks man. Def still some details to be worked out in regards to Sun. The meat of the H5 jet streak moves atop the instability axis Sunday, but the big question will be lapse rate quality and the associated potential for ongoing leftovers from Sat muddling up things. Definitely has a large ceiling conditional wise, but we know how that can go sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Thanks man. Def still some details to be worked out in regards to Sun. The meat of the H5 jet streak moves atop the instability axis Sunday, but the big question will be lapse rate quality and the associated potential for ongoing leftovers from Sat muddling up things. Definitely has a large ceiling conditional wise, but we know how that can go sometimes. 12z NAM continues the theme of a good setup for IA and northern IL on Sunday. It's definitely been far more bullish than the Euro and GFS farther east so it'll be interesting to see how things pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 slight risk added from LAF southwest into IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 slight risk added from LAF southwest into ILSneak attack underway....That springfield line starting to lurch east a bit....could become a player if it taps some of that decent cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Mid and upper 60 DP becoming widespread across N IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 8, 2015 Author Share Posted May 8, 2015 Thanks man. Def still some details to be worked out in regards to Sun. The meat of the H5 jet streak moves atop the instability axis Sunday, but the big question will be lapse rate quality and the associated potential for ongoing leftovers from Sat muddling up things. Definitely has a large ceiling conditional wise, but we know how that can go sometimes. Dreaded Quad Cities split could be in the offing for Sun/Mon if the SPC outlooks are on the right track, but some model differences as has been pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 65 dbz on the cell nw of danville near i57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 It appears there may be little if any sun across Iowa on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 It appears there may be little if any sun across Iowa on Sunday. Eternal wet blanket lives on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Cell headed my direction severe warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 slight risk added from LAF southwest into IL Torrential Rain and wind. Not bad. Btw "in a wreck, get a check" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Eternal wet blanket lives on. Make a rational statement about severe potential being affected by clouds, some idiot takes a shot at you. Real nice. Frankly, if you think I'm a wet blanket, you don't know wtf "wet blanket" means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Make a rational, very true statement about possible severe conditions, some idiot takes a shot at you. Real nice. Frankly, if you think I'm a wet blanket, you don't know wtf "wet blanket" means. You complain/naysay every time there is a possible weather event that could affect Cedar Rapids, it's pretty well documented, just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 You complain/naysay every time there is a possible weather event that could affect Cedar Rapids, it's pretty well documented, just saying. Singling me out, out of the blue, is very odd. For every 100 negative posts on this board, 1 of them might be mine. I can't even remember the last time I was negative toward a severe weather event. Early spring was dry, but it has been an above average storm season so far with several nice hits(which I've mentioned in the obs threads). Heck, cyclone has posted about storms crapping the bed, and Erie, IL getting sloppy seconds, countless times just this spring, yet I don't remember you taking shots at him. For the record, cyclone, I have no problem at all with any of your posts. I enjoy reading your thoughts and obs. The post you picked to single out is quite odd as well. It wasn't even an attempt to poop on the event. I'm well aware there is a chance of severe weather here Sunday. I also noticed this morning it appears there may be little if any sun, even though it should still be fairly warm. I think the fact that a lack of insolation can affect the potency of a severe event is Met 101 and has been brought up about 1000 different times by many posters over the years. If one of the board mets/experts thinks lack of sun won't have a big effect, or if we may get decent sun, I'd be interested in reading it. A solid severe event around here would be exciting, so I'm not pooh-poohing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Thinking the best shot for tors at this point for Sun would be over northwest Iowa/southwest MN/southeast SD. Shear vectors away from the dryling/CF better up there, along with much better overall shear. Instability may not be as good up in that wedge depending on a few things, but the models indicate enough for good convection. These things always seem to slow down a bit at the last minute, so I expect to be in northeast NE at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 Singling me out, out of the blue, is very odd. For every 100 negative posts on this board, 1 of them might be mine. I can't even remember the last time I was negative toward a severe weather event. Early spring was dry, but it has been an above average storm season so far with several nice hits. Heck, cyclone has posted about storms crapping the bed, and Erie, IL getting sloppy seconds, countless times just this spring, yet I don't remember you taking shots at him. For the record, cyclone, I have no problem at all with any of your posts. I enjoy reading your thoughts and obs. The post you picked to single out is quite odd as well. It wasn't even an attempt to poop on the event. I'm well aware there is a chance of severe weather here Sunday. I also noticed this morning it appears there may be little if any sun, even though it should still be fairly warm. I think the fact that a lack of insolation can affect the potency of a severe event is Met 101 and has been brought up about 1000 different times by many posters over the years. If one of the board mets/experts thinks lack of sun won't have a big effect, or if we may get decent sun, I'd be interested in reading it. A solid severe event around here would be exciting, so I'm not pooh-poohing anything. My apologies for sounding so harsh, it is just something I have seen in multiple threads in GL/OV over the past few years and it seemed like there wasn't much else to your original post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 8, 2015 Share Posted May 8, 2015 DVN afternoon forecaster is thinking the warm sector may be "cloudy and messy", but severe is still possible. The rain/storms late Saturday night will play a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 9, 2015 Share Posted May 9, 2015 New 00z 12km NAM has slowed the system a bit for Sunday. Would have things kicking off pretty far west out towards Grand Island and Ord NE. May end up sitting this one out if it ends up being that far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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