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2015 Short Term Severe Weather Discussion


Hoosier

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Looking at pictures from various news sources, the Cameron tornado (just basing off of the pictures, which may or may not show the worst damage) will probably be rated mid-EF2 to possibly low end EF3.. But more so thinking an EF2. Which is still a "strong" tornado.

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Looking at pictures from various news sources, the Cameron tornado (just basing off of the pictures, which may or may not show the worst damage) will probably be rated mid-EF2 to possibly low end EF3.. But more so thinking an EF2. Which is still a "strong" tornado.

Yeah. It looked like an EF3+ in that video. Of course... visual guesstimation isn't how they rate tornadoes (thankfully)

 

TWC has an article about this tornado

 

http://www.weather.com/news/news/cameron-illinois-tornado-severe-damage-impacts

 

They also link a local news site that has some pictures of damage.

 

http://wqad.com/2015/07/16/tornado-reportedly-hits-cameron-illinois/

 

cameron-illinois-photo-shared-by-derek-m

 

home-foundation-destroyed-in-cameron-ill

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They eventually issued a severe warning but it was pretty obvious it needed a tornado warning.

Second time Lincoln has dropped the ball on a storm in less than a week, similar situation last Saturday with a storm in DEC with rotation that went unwarned for some time, before finally getting a severe warning as a good hook echo and rotation signature showed up over long creek. I believe the Long Creek/Mt Zion area had some significant tree damage due to that storm.

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5% tornado area was added on the 01z outlook.

 

All this talk on Twitter/etc. of the 2% being the thing that goes crazy this year. That shouldn't have been the case from 1630z on (or at least it should've been upgraded to 5% at 20z). I don't really understand the lack of a tornado watch in this situation either since the parameter space was clearly rather favorable for tornadoes as my post earlier illustrated about the environment downstream of the storm that was near Burlington at the time (which went on to become the Monmouth/etc. cyclic supercell). 1500-2500+ J/kg MLCAPE coupled with 200-400 m2/sof effective SRH and low-mid 70s dewpoints isn't exactly something to play around with having semi-discrete storms in the area. There was also multi-model agreement that this type of sweet spot in west-central IL and SE IA was going to be in place this afternoon/evening.

 

Sure I suppose hindsight is 20/20, but in this case I don't think you can really say that. Something tells me the particular outlook forecaster who released the 20z outlook had to a lot to play into this. Some of his material recently (and even not so recently) has been questionable at best.

 

BTW, Saturday is increasingly catching my interest for the northern end of the sub-forum. That is quite a potent (especially for mid July) shortwave trough moving along the 49th parallel with the potential for strong destabilization out ahead of it. Of course, it also looks like the kind of setup that could easily get screwed up by the convection from late tomorrow.

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Second time Lincoln has dropped the ball on a storm in less than a week, similar situation last Saturday with a storm in DEC with rotation that went unwarned for some time, before finally getting a severe warning as a good hook echo and rotation signature showed up over long creek. I believe the Long Creek/Mt Zion area had some significant tree damage due to that storm.

 

I don't understand why they never issued a tornado warning for that storm that hit Delevan. It had rotation on it off and on for some time before it hit the town. I don't understand how they think issuing a severe thunderstorm warning was enough and i believe that was after the storm had already hit the town. Someone saw the tornado and they tried to turn on the tornado siren, but the power was out in the whole town so they had no warning. I live a county over and they said there was a warning for Delevan's county and the southwest part of my county, but my weather radio never went off. I posted a link to a local article i found where the NWS said the tornado signature only showed up 4 mintues before the storm hit Delevan and dissipated after it got out of town.

 

http://www.pantagraph.com/news/local/tornado-damages-homes-in-delavan/article_846071e0-c0bc-5452-b61b-8a7201d56a70.html

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I don't understand why they never issued a tornado warning for that storm that hit Delevan. It had rotation on it off and on for some time before it hit the town. I don't understand how they think issuing a severe thunderstorm warning was enough and i believe that was after the storm had already hit the town. Someone saw the tornado and they tried to turn on the tornado siren, but the power was out in the whole town so they had no warning. I live a county over and they said there was a warning for Delevan's county and the southwest part of my county, but my weather radio never went off. I posted a link to a local article i found where the NWS said the tornado signature only showed up 4 mintues before the storm hit Delevan and dissipated after it got out of town.

http://www.pantagraph.com/news/local/tornado-damages-homes-in-delavan/article_846071e0-c0bc-5452-b61b-8a7201d56a70.html

I'm not one to call the NWS a liar, but it was showing rotation long before the 4 minute window they refer to. It should have be warned, period.

And not to further beat a dead horse, but the 7/11 storm which went through Macon county showed off and on rotation as it entered their county from the north. Storm was never severe warned, until after a hook echo and strong rotation had developed over Mt Zion, and only then it received s severe warning.

I am beginning to wonder if they are gun shy about issuing a tornado warning for fear of backlash in the event of a bust. However two blown/missed warnings in less than a week does not speak well for any office.

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