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2015 Short Term Severe Weather Discussion


Hoosier

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1441  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0758 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015  
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO INTO PORTIONS OF NRN AND CNTRL IL AND NWRN  
IND  
 
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429...  

 
VALID 170058Z - 170230Z  

 
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 429  
CONTINUES.  
 
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR  
ANOTHER HOUR OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL IL. A GRADUAL UPSCALE  
GROWTH OF STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND  
AND HAIL THREAT SPREAD EWD/SEWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL.  
 
DISCUSSION...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA AND SPOTTER REPORTS INDICATE A  
TORNADIC SUPERCELL AFFECTING WARREN INTO KNOX COUNTIES  
IL...IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS ORGANIZING  
OVER W-CNTRL IL. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS  
SITUATED NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM  
CNTRL IA INTO S-CNTRL IL. THE 00Z ILX SOUNDING APPEARS TO BE A  
REASONABLE PROXY FOR THE LOCAL INFLOW ENVIRONMENT TO THESE STORMS  
WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG JUXTAPOSED WITH A VERTICALLY VEERING  
WIND PROFILE WITH 200-250 M2/2 EFFECTIVE SRH.  
 
CURRENT THINKING IS THE RISK FOR AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO WILL  
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO ALONG THE I-74 CORRIDOR WEST OF  
PEORIA. HOWEVER...WITH TIME...DESTRUCTIVE STORM INTERFERENCE  
COUPLED WITH A GRADUALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN  
A DIMINISHING TORNADO THREAT. LOCALLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND  
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE COMPLEX OF TSTMS  
CONTINUES EWD INTO CNTRL IL.  
 
OVER NERN MO...CONVECTIVE TRENDS INDICATE DECREASING STORM COVERAGE  
AND INTENSITY. SHOULD THIS CONTINUE...THE PORTION OF THE WATCH WEST  
OF THE MS RIVER CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY.  
 
..MEAD.. 07/17/2015  

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Hadn't really looked at today's setup, so didn't even plan to head out.  Just went outside of town on the tor warned storm.  Was like driving in a maze with 8ft corn on both sides of the road.  Extremely frustrating.  Seemed like it was hard to find a bean field.  Storm had some decent structure, but never saw much other than the typical supercell crap.  Seen this about 25 times this year, and still no tornado.  Bout to sell all my chasing ****.

 

Here's a look as it came over the western horizon.

2eyi91f.jpg

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Hoping the best for Cameron, luckily it missed Galesburg and Monmouth to the south.

Social media is unusually quiet regarding this. If a major tornado did hit Cameron, you would think there would be photos of the damage and more tweets from storm chasers/residents of the town. According to an eyewitness in town, @donkeydownburst, the damage from the tornado was "relatively minor" and consisted of downed trees and power lines, a gas leak, and minor roof/power line damage.

Sent from my GT-N8010 using Tapatalk

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I'd give it some time. Even in the age of social media, it still takes a while to see the full scope of damage. Hopefully it's not too bad...

Not to mention that it is now dark there and if there were search and rescue/emergency going on there, you wouldn't have the typical gawkers checking out the damage.

 

:yikes:

 

This is definitely my third favorite tornado video now

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zn4a7JMlmP0&feature=youtu.be

That is a very impressive video, pretty crazy evolution expecially with the individual funnels moving right to left at one point.

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Not to mention that it is now dark there and if there were search and rescue/emergency going on there, you wouldn't have the typical gawkers checking out the damage.

 

That is a very impressive video, pretty crazy evolution expecially with the individual funnels moving right to left at one point.

Yup, that's my favorite part. Then how fast the large tornado formed immediately after that. It's stunning. Videos like this would've been great for Dr. Fujita back when he was researching the concept of multiple vortices... :lol: the way he did it was more badass though.

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Something that might be contributing to the 'quietness' on social media is because maybe not many people were chasing today. Just speculation though... there were obviously some out there.

Yea, pretty much only local based ones from around there were out today.
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