ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 ILN is talking about some strong pulse storms and heat indices in the 100s. Strong pulse storms are pretty sweet. WITH DEWPOINTS 70 TO 75 F ON FRIDAY...THIS COMBINED WITHWARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO APPROACH 100DEGREES F. CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAT HAZARD IN THE HWO.THUNDERSTORMS ALSO RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY. INCREASINGMOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY WHICH HAS THE POTENTIALTO EXCEED 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. MAIN FORCING LOOKS TO AT LEASTINITIALLY BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA /SHORTWAVE/TROUGH/ BUT ITSPOSSIBLE THAT ANY CONVECTION COULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THEAFTERNOON/EVENING PARTICULARLY IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY CAPPING.WHILE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY /CAPE/COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS.&&.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...PERIOD BEGINS WITH LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA.SHORTWAVE FROM FRIDAY WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY INTO SERN CANADA WITHWHATEVER SEMBLANCE OF SURFACE FRONT HAVING LONG SINCE WASHED OUTOVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LEAVING A HEALTHY PWAT AXIS /+1 SIGMA ABOVECLIMO/ IN PLACE. A SHARP POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEPRESENT FROM ND BACK INTO DEEPER CYCLONE OVER IN THE INTERMOUNTAINWEST.HEIGHTS WILL RISE ON SATURDAY SUGGESTING FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BEWEAK AND DRIVEN VIA DIABATIC HEATING OF THE EXTREMELYWARM/ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS. WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 90F ANDDEWPTS WELL INTO THE LOW 70S...SCT DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION WILLDEVELOP NEAR AROUND PVS BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROMSLOW MOVING STORMS...PERHAPS A FEW DOWNBURSTS WILL BE PRIMARYTHREATS WITH WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 It's my hunch for the upcoming sequence that many of us will be paying much more attention to ML CAPE per tornadotony's comments on our last episode and not just surface CAPE. Gotta make sure the energy and moisture gets up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 It's my hunch for the upcoming sequence that many of us will be paying much more attention to ML CAPE per tornadotony's comments on our last episode and not just surface CAPE. Gotta make sure the energy and moisture gets up there. Well, MLCAPE or not, the shear in the upcoming period isn't gonna be favorable for a respectable tornado threat. With that said... I dunno what else MLCAPE plays a role in because the supercells on Monday seemed to do just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Now August 24 2007 Popping up on the analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 With how moist the soils are...(I know that's not the end all be all)...I just see repeated bouts of well-fueled and somewhat disorganized MCSs stalling boundaries...not much chance for boundary momentum...so I will side with ALEK...fwiw The main difference I see are similar situations to a few days ago with elevated DPs to make it feel hotter thanks in part to the oversaturated soils and the sweaty cornfields I'd be surprised if the front gets hung up too far south this time. Really don't see Chicagoland escaping some pretty significant heat/humidity, especially early weekend (possible exception right along the lakeshore if the gradient is weak enough). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Finally they introduced a marginal risk for tomorrow locally though I do expect a slight risk for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 The 12z NAM has an area of 4000 j/kg of MLCAPE across central/northern IL tomorrow and into Saturday with values that stay that high right on through overnight and into the next morning, haven't seen that too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Finally they introduced a marginal risk for tomorrow locally though I do expect a slight risk for tomorrow. Maybe ENH if a cold pool gets going? NSSL WRF painting a nice picture for tomorrow...wouldn't be surprised if that model verifies exactly. SREF has been slowly upping precip. amounts for central Ohio with continued 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE. Only limiting factor is only 20-30 kts. shear. Should be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Maybe ENH if a cold pool gets going? NSSL WRF painting a nice picture for tomorrow...wouldn't be surprised if that model verifies exactly. SREF has been slowly upping precip. amounts for central Ohio with continued 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE. Only limiting factor is only 20-30 kts. shear. Should be interesting... I don't think we see an enhanced. Lack of appreciable shear, a well defined shortwave, and a decent cap. However it should still be a slight imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Interestingly there's MD with the potential for storms to move into IA/IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Last event the warm front ended up further north and east than expected. This isn't April or May... True, but the timing could be a bit slower than progged now. The latest NAM runs only have us getting into the mid/upper 80s on Friday (whereas before, it had highs in the low 90s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Once again I wish we had radar in Kirksville MO as storms are beginning to fire in the area under a mesoscale discussion at present. Who do I need to lobby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brohnhdon Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 I don't think we see an enhanced. Lack of appreciable shear, a well defined shortwave, and a decent cap. However it should still be a slight imo. It's very wishful thinking...like you noted though, a SLGT appears likely. Sunday is looking like the better day with the frontal passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Finally they introduced a marginal risk for tomorrow locally though I do expect a slight risk for tomorrow. My issue with late tomorrow will be the subsidence cap in the wake of the morning shortwave. The low level convergence doesn't look to be nearly as impressive as with the last event, which will make it harder for any organized convection to break through the cap without a formidable shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Now August 24 2007 Popping up on the analogs...that's a couple solid performers for LOT This event also produced a couple tors in MI It was a multi-day event in fact. August 23, 2007 featured the long-lived derecho that I believe tracked from Nebraska the previous night before finally diminishing here in Detroit (though not before giving us a solid t'storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Getting some nice low level flow here visually ahead of the line to LOTs west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Cyclone might have an interesting evening as those cells move ne with the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 My issue with late tomorrow will be the subsidence cap in the wake of the morning shortwave. The low level convergence doesn't look to be nearly as impressive as with the last event, which will make it harder for any organized convection to break through the cap without a formidable shortwave. We will warm to near 90 tomorrow which should be enough to break the cap along with the subtle shortwave that is coming across the state in the afternoon. Mind you I don't think tomorrow is going to be some sort of outbreak of severe weather, but there could be isolated to scattered strong/severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Looks like I am in a severe T watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Nice little line heading for central Chi town at present with stronger cells to the sw. Could provide some entertainment for this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Decent little environment currently in SE IA and west central IL. Gradient of MLCAPE set up from PIA to DVN with backed low level flow (effective SRH of 200-400 m2/s2) and effective shear around 40 kts. Would be most interested in the cells near Burlington and Mount Union currently. They both have rather strong rotation aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Large area of 2+ inch pwats and a fairly strong 850 transport in SE Iowa NE mizzu and parts of western IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 We will warm to near 90 tomorrow which should be enough to break the cap along with the subtle shortwave that is coming across the state in the afternoon. Mind you I don't think tomorrow is going to be some sort of outbreak of severe weather, but there could be isolated to scattered strong/severe storms. Oh I agree with the potential of isolated thunderstorms, and obviously severe weather will be a concern with any t'storm given the instability/moisture expected. I just disagree with the idea of a slight risk from the SPC, at least now. We're going to need to get temps warmer than "near 90*F" with 850mb temps expected to surge to at least 20*C late in the day for a "slight risk" coverage of severe t'storms, given that we don't have a formidable trigger to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 545 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN IOWA... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 545 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER BURLINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... BURLINGTON AND GULF PORT AROUND 555 PM CDT. STRONGHURST AROUND 610 PM CDT. GLADSTONE AROUND 615 PM CDT. OQUAWKA AND BIGGSVILLE AROUND 620 PM CDT. ROZETTA AROUND 625 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Storm is getting interfered with from the SW, tornado potential should be low for time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Sample of the conditions downstream of the Burlington cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 Funnel cloud near Ames, IA this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 TOG biggsviille IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 16, 2015 Share Posted July 16, 2015 TOG biggsviille IL Possible anti-cyclonic tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 17, 2015 Share Posted July 17, 2015 Strong circulation between Monmouth and Kirkwood now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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