Hoosier Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 Neat MCV feature just south of Indianapolis, heading for SW Ohio like a bowling ball. There's a bit of rotation in the bookend vortex... not tornado warning worthy yet. I was just going to post about that. Can really see that whole mass rotating on radar loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 I was just going to post about that. Can really see that whole mass rotating on radar loop. Would've been crazy to see a tornado warning from that... it was pretty close. I'm looking forward to the rain from it. Mesoanalysis has PWATs over 2" associated with it. WPC's latest QPF has over 3" of rain for most of the OV/mid-Mississippi valley in the next 7 days... most of which comes from days 4-7. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1436302443 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Some bad storms just went through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Is that your neighborhood? Damn that is some heavy damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Is that your neighborhood? Damn that is some heavy damage. My neighborhood had some bad damage, but nothing like just south of here along the lakeshore. These are from Sunset Beach, the most popular beach in WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 I can see a slight risk for tornadoes coming today. HRRR and RAP have STP values between 2 and 4 later today, right along the warm front, in south Illinois/south Indiana Props to NAM for picking up on this a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 8, 2015 Author Share Posted July 8, 2015 Slight risk added on the 1630z outlook with 5% tornado probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 8, 2015 Share Posted July 8, 2015 Tornado watch is probable. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1322 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0109 PM CDT WED JUL 08 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL MO TO SOUTHERN IL/FAR WESTERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 081809Z - 082015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MO /INCLUDING THE I-44 VICINITY SOUTHWARD/ AND SUBSEQUENTLY INTO FAR SOUTHERN IL/FAR WESTERN KY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MO AT MIDDAY...WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MO INTO AREAS GENERALLY NEAR THE OH RIVER IN KY AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA. ON THE EASTERN FRINGE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...SOME OF THE SHOWERS/UPDRAFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MO HAVE SHOWN MODEST SIGNS OF DEEPENING SINCE LATE MORNING WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MODEST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATED CORRIDOR OF MODEST CLOUD BREAKS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE. GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY WEAKLY CAPPED/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PROBABLE STRENGTHENING OF LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...THERE IS CONCERN FOR THESE DEEPENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO ACQUIRE LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AS THEY INTENSIFY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT A TORNADO RISK MAY EXIST PARTICULARLY WITH STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR/INTERACTING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-EAST FRONTAL ZONE. It's impressive how well-defined the warm sector is for July's standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 GFS has some definitive analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 GFS has some definitive analogs. Going to have strong to extreme instability again. Just have to see about shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Going to have strong to extreme instability again. Just have to see about shear. Haha you mean 60 knots of effective bulk shear doesn't happen every day in the middle of summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Yes, the next time frame looking interesting is definitely this upcoming weekend into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 YikesThe August 2008 analog is a memorable one for me...tor went by just a few blocks from my home.http://www.weather.gov/lot/2008aug04 WRT the next few days... NAM with some decent MLCAPE and more days of 80+ DPs... No shortwave really sticks out massively...but the fuel will be there for an MCSs that can get a cool pool going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 15, 2015 Author Share Posted July 15, 2015 The August 2008 analog is a memorable one for me...tor went by just a few blocks from my home. http://www.weather.gov/lot/2008aug04 WRT the next few days... NAM with some decent MLCAPE and more days of 80+ DPs... No shortwave really sticks out massively...but the fuel will be there for an MCSs that can get a cool pool going The inspiration for my avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 The inspiration for my avatar. Ah yeah....wow...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I find it a bit interesting there is no risk area locally for Friday, all models show redevelopment along the front in the state. The wind profile isn't sheared much directionally but there is decent speed shear good for some linear convective systems. I do think Sunday will be the bigger day but Friday isn't too bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I find it a bit interesting there is no risk area locally for Friday, all models show redevelopment along the front in the state. The wind profile isn't sheared much directionally but there is decent speed shear good for some linear convective systems. I do think Sunday will be the bigger day but Friday isn't too bad either. Agreed...Friday looks pretty decent along the boundary into michigan... Sunday into Monday looks like it could have a nice big line developing with some clusters ahead and along a bowing structure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Looking forward to more warm front busts and 70s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Alek, these warm fronts have got to move a bit further north eventually as we head towards the traditional dog days of summer. I think this weekend might be the start of a trend to further north warm fronts (relatively speaking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Looking forward to more warm front busts and 70s lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 With how moist the soils are...(I know that's not the end all be all)...I just see repeated bouts of well-fueled and somewhat disorganized MCSs stalling boundaries...not much chance for boundary momentum...so I will side with ALEK...fwiw The main difference I see are similar situations to a few days ago with elevated DPs to make it feel hotter thanks in part to the oversaturated soils and the sweaty cornfields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 This weekend looks pretty damn hot... the heat index might be hotter than anything we saw in 2014... which really doesn't say much as last year was pretty boring. It seems I'm in the heat dome opposed to being on the rim of it this past weekend... which would explain why the analogs favor areas to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Now August 24 2007 Popping up on the analogs...that's a couple solid performers for LOT This event also produced a couple tors in MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Now August 24 2007 Popping up on the analogs...that's a couple solid performers for LOT This event also produced a couple tors in MI That was a really good event here if I recall. That was the Fenton tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Now August 24 2007 Popping up on the analogs...that's a couple solid performers for LOT This event also produced a couple tors in MI I don't want a repeat of that event; lost power for 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 Looking forward to more warm front busts and 70s Last event the warm front ended up further north and east than expected. This isn't April or May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 LOT ftw THE GENERAL TREND THE PAST SIX ACTIVE AND WET WEEKS HAS BEEN FORGUIDANCE TO BE TOO FAR NORTH IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD WITH AREAS OFCONVECTION/MCS ACTIVITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 LOT ftw THE GENERAL TREND THE PAST SIX ACTIVE AND WET WEEKS HAS BEEN FOR GUIDANCE TO BE TOO FAR NORTH IN THE DAY 2-3 PERIOD WITH AREAS OF CONVECTION/MCS ACTIVITY. Last event's morning MCS tracked further NE than modeled 2-3 days beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 15, 2015 Share Posted July 15, 2015 I find it a bit interesting there is no risk area locally for Friday, all models show redevelopment along the front in the state. The wind profile isn't sheared much directionally but there is decent speed shear good for some linear convective systems. I do think Sunday will be the bigger day but Friday isn't too bad either. Agreed...Friday looks pretty decent along the boundary into michigan... Sunday into Monday looks like it could have a nice big line developing with some clusters ahead and along a bowing structure NAM for Friday looks good - Saturday it gets juiced and Dews at 80 with 5k s/bCAPE stretching from IA eastward to MI. I would imagine given the environment we've been in, it would good for 1500-2000 MLCAPE if it verifies out. Provided a weak cap, could get something going. Sunday looks better though. Heat indicies in the 100s makes for a sweaty weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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