Gilbertfly Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Tornado warning in Lee county in LOT...radar indicated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Tornado warning in Lee county in LOT...radar indicated .A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE AND SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTIES... AT 537 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PAW PAW...OR 7 MILES NORTH OF MENDOTA...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH. A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A ROTATING WALL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM JUST SOUTH OF COMPTON AT 530 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 I work on the east side of Minneapolis and saw the rotation before I left work. If I was further west I would have followed it but bad timing just before rush hour. Hoping we get something from the line up north. East metro is about to get smoked now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 East metro is about to get smoked now.That's me (Roseville, 4mi north of St Paul). I'm looking at this and I'm not liking what I see. Forest Lake getting raked right now. Have to imagine that the warnings are extended south. Winds really howling in front of this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 That's me (Roseville, 4mi north of St Paul). I'm looking at this and I'm not liking what I see. Forest Lake getting raked right now. Have to imagine that the warnings are extended south. Winds really howling in front of this line. Pretty impressive outflow boundary on radar. I imagine you're getting a nice shelf cloud as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Nice shelf and great wind with the outflow. A few close CG strikes, otherwise just monsoon rain. Nothing severe despite the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Just caught up with all the severe weather for the last week. Looks like I missed quite a bit! Hopefully there is a few more outbreaks this year to go chasing on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 743 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHWESTERN CALLAWAY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 815 PM CDT * AT 742 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COLUMBIA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... FULTON AND NEW BLOOMFIELD AROUND 815 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CARRINGTON...KINGDOM CITY AND GUTHRIE. THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES ROCK BRIDGE STATE PARK AND JEWELL CEMETERY HISTORIC SITE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 3, 2015 Share Posted July 3, 2015 SPC has mentioned a possible increase in severe potential later next week for the Midwest. At least the 12z GFS shows this pretty well. It looks interesting. We have a westerly jet stream with embedded disturbances above a pretty strong LLJ for this time of year (mostly 30-40 knots although exceeding 50 knots when the nocturnal LLJ kicks in). This leads to good instability and decent speed and directional shear. For tornado potential, the only remaining questions are storm mode and LCL. Both of those tend to be a problem this time of year... which is probably why July averages only 87 tornadoes. I drew this up last night from the 00z GFS, where the severe corridor could be for this time period (8th through 13th or so)... but it's still pretty valid for today's 12z GFS. (If this should belong in the July discussion thread, lemme know and I'll delete it from here and move it there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 4, 2015 Share Posted July 4, 2015 Next shot of some severe for part of our sub looks to be later Monday afternoon/eve. Pretty decent surface convergence along a cold front from Wisconsin down through Iowa, and into Kansas should kick off a line of severe storms. NAM is showing the most cape, as usual, with 3000-4000j/kg ahead of the front in Iowa. Shows dews pooling well into the 70s in the instability axis, which is reasonable given that we're now in peak evapotranspiration season. Wind profiles are fairly decent in the low levels, with good southerly/southwesterly flow in the lower 3km or so. Mid-levels are pretty meh, but 30-35kts at H5 isn't terrible. The shear vectors are pretty crappy though, as they're fairly parallel to the boundary, so a solid line of storms is what we should see. The big question is how long will the line of storms hold onto severe potential? To me there's not much doubt that the line will blow up quickly, and become severe fairly quickly as well given the parameters in place. With the relative lack of mid and upper support that could mean a quick flare up of severe, with the line quickly undercutting itself shortly after. We would then need some forward propagation, and cold pool development to keep any hope for severe alive downstream. We really won't know how that plays out until it develops I guess. So at this point the best chances for severe IMO look to be within 75-100 miles of wherever the line initiates at later Sunday afternoon. Probably somewhere along a Wausau/La Crosse/Des Moines/Falls City line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 5, 2015 Share Posted July 5, 2015 I'll take the 18z NAM for Weds please. Looks like a April IL warm front setup but in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 I'll take the 18z NAM for Weds please. Looks like a April IL warm front setup but in July. How likely is it to verify though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 There were some good sets of analogs for today's 12z GFS... especially hours 60 and 132. For hour 132, the ones that brought severe reports were forward propagating MCS's. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/threats.php?reg=MV&rundt=2015070512 Hour 60: http://i.imgur.com/ageEWS6.png Hour 132: http://i.imgur.com/8c9uOWb.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 It would be nice if we can slow the cold front down just a little bit Tuesday. The 00z NAM would be ideal, with CAPE values of 3000 J/KG by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Next shot of some severe for part of our sub looks to be later Monday afternoon/eve. Pretty decent surface convergence along a cold front from Wisconsin down through Iowa, and into Kansas should kick off a line of severe storms. NAM is showing the most cape, as usual, with 3000-4000j/kg ahead of the front in Iowa. Shows dews pooling well into the 70s in the instability axis, which is reasonable given that we're now in peak evapotranspiration season. Wind profiles are fairly decent in the low levels, with good southerly/southwesterly flow in the lower 3km or so. Mid-levels are pretty meh, but 30-35kts at H5 isn't terrible. The shear vectors are pretty crappy though, as they're fairly parallel to the boundary, so a solid line of storms is what we should see. The big question is how long will the line of storms hold onto severe potential? To me there's not much doubt that the line will blow up quickly, and become severe fairly quickly as well given the parameters in place. With the relative lack of mid and upper support that could mean a quick flare up of severe, with the line quickly undercutting itself shortly after. We would then need some forward propagation, and cold pool development to keep any hope for severe alive downstream. We really won't know how that plays out until it develops I guess. So at this point the best chances for severe IMO look to be within 75-100 miles of wherever the line initiates at later Sunday afternoon. Probably somewhere along a Wausau/La Crosse/Des Moines/Falls City line. This is still looking spot on. Looks like the storms won't stay severe for too long. Looks like some sloppy seconds later tomorrow evening for eastern Iowa and northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Some crazy parameters on tonight's GFS for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Some crazy parameters on tonight's GFS for next weekend. Most of this is being driven by high instability, the wind profiles really aren't that great overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Most of this is being driven by high instability, the wind profiles really aren't that great overall. Right... I was thinking about an MCS event. The shear might be a bit marginal for an MCS though. It's 20 knots and I think you need 25-30. Another problem is the cap... it's ridiculous on the northern periphery of the high instability. This far out, it's not something I'm gonna write off yet. I can't wait to see how ridiculous the parameters are on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 Most of this is being driven by high instability, the wind profiles really aren't that great overall. In addition, verbatim, the front is also parallel to the overall weak flow. That said, July 4th-5th, 2012 was somewhat similar to the GFS' depiction (high instability/weak shear). So poor wind profiles with that type of instability and low-level convergence is hardly a dealbreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 QC area cell.... SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 441 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 ILC073-161-195-062215- /O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-150706T2215Z/ HENRY IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-WHITESIDE IL- 441 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN HENRY...EAST CENTRAL ROCK ISLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN WHITESIDE COUNTIES... AT 440 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CLEVELAND...OR 7 MILES EAST OF EAST MOLINE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... EAST MOLINE...SILVIS...GENESEO...COLONA...LE CLAIRE...HAMPTON... ORION...PORT BYRON...ERIE...ATKINSON...RAPIDS CITY...CLEVELAND... WARNER...OSBORN...DAYTON...CARBON CLIFF...HILLSDALE...OSCO...JOSLIN AND SPRING HILL. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS... INTERSTATE 80 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 31. INTERSTATE 74 IN ILLINOIS BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 11 AND 21. INTERSTATE 88 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 12. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THIS STORM PRODUCED ROOF AND CAR WINDOW DAMAGE NEAR SOUTH PARK MALL IN MOLINE. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 509 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL CLAY COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 509 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LIBERTY... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... MISSOURI CITY AROUND 520 PM CDT. INDEPENDENCE AROUND 525 PM CDT. BUCKNER AND SIBLEY AROUND 530 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 This time In Wisconsin SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 509 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 WIC115-062230- /O.CON.KGRB.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150706T2230Z/ SHAWANO WI- 509 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWANO COUNTY... AT 508 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PELLA...OR 5MILES SOUTHWEST OF SHAWANO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 6, 2015 Share Posted July 6, 2015 SPC tornado probability: "Less than 2% all areas" Can't blame the SPC though... mesoanalysis shows parameters are really weak for tornadoes anywhere. You just never know with these LEWPing squalls. Currently 7 tornado reports... tornado warning just south of KC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 7, 2015 Author Share Posted July 7, 2015 SPC tornado probability: "Less than 2% all areas" Can't blame the SPC though... mesoanalysis shows parameters are really weak for tornadoes anywhere. You just never know with these LEWPing squalls. Currently 7 tornado reports... tornado warning just south of KC. It must be the smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 It must be the smoke. LOL well played There was a paper that came out a while back about how the smoke from Mexico fires enhanced the 4/27/2011 tornado outbreak (met with some criticism because it used an event that was so prolific). If the fires persist, perhaps the smoke will stick around in the atmosphere during some severe weather setups. If we get an anomalous tornado outbreak, we'll have something to blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Next shot of some severe for part of our sub looks to be later Monday afternoon/eve. Pretty decent surface convergence along a cold front from Wisconsin down through Iowa, and into Kansas should kick off a line of severe storms. NAM is showing the most cape, as usual, with 3000-4000j/kg ahead of the front in Iowa. Shows dews pooling well into the 70s in the instability axis, which is reasonable given that we're now in peak evapotranspiration season. Wind profiles are fairly decent in the low levels, with good southerly/southwesterly flow in the lower 3km or so. Mid-levels are pretty meh, but 30-35kts at H5 isn't terrible. The shear vectors are pretty crappy though, as they're fairly parallel to the boundary, so a solid line of storms is what we should see. The big question is how long will the line of storms hold onto severe potential? To me there's not much doubt that the line will blow up quickly, and become severe fairly quickly as well given the parameters in place. With the relative lack of mid and upper support that could mean a quick flare up of severe, with the line quickly undercutting itself shortly after. We would then need some forward propagation, and cold pool development to keep any hope for severe alive downstream. We really won't know how that plays out until it develops I guess. So at this point the best chances for severe IMO look to be within 75-100 miles of wherever the line initiates at later Sunday afternoon. Probably somewhere along a Wausau/La Crosse/Des Moines/Falls City line. This ended up being lol worthy. Things didn't evolve anywhere even close to this due to nocturnal convection that spread a lot further east and south than what was expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Hoping for something decent Friday around here on the nose of the LLJ near the warm front. At least decent storm potential. Sun/Mon look better with some sufficient shear and lots of instability for the making of a sleeper or two NW flow days. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Hoping for something decent Friday around here on the nose of the LLJ near the warm front. At least decent storm potential. Sun/Mon look better with some sufficient shear and lots of instability for the making of a sleeper or two NW flow days. Time will tell. liking prospect for some healthy + decent coverage storms (severe or not) friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Neat MCV feature just south of Indianapolis, heading for SW Ohio like a bowling ball. There's a bit of rotation in the bookend vortex... not tornado warning worthy yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 7, 2015 Share Posted July 7, 2015 Warning just issued for our region. This must be the 4th or 5th one this season. Pretty active so far, can't complain about much. Just drove home and lights are out over much of the area. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK... * UNTIL 515 PM EDT * AT 434 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DERBY...OR NEAR HAMBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BUFFALO...CHEEKTOWAGA...WEST SENECA...LACKAWANNA...KENMORE... DEPEW...TONAWANDA AND AMHERST. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN EXITS 57A AND 49. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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