snowlover2 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Slight risk added for tomorrow for a good chunk of MO,se IA and extreme western IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Things still looking pretty decent for tomorrow, especially in Iowa, and northern MO. 4km NAM breaks out a broken line of supercells by late afternoon. The things will be rotating pretty good with the shear profiles in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 FWIW, there's a tornado warning in North Dakota for a possible tornado and tennis ball size hail. Preview of things to come tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Apparently the NAM is biased high with the dewpoints according to the latest D2 outlook so it may be overdoing instability (although that's kind of hard to believe given how much rain has fallen over the Midwest recently). There's also no mention of tornado potential even though the directional shear is arguably the most impressive part of this setup (except on the GFS, as per usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 If today is any indication about tomorrow, they are going to need to up the ante on the day 1 for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 If today is any indication about tomorrow, they are going to need to up the ante on the day 1 for tomorrow. Pretty potent little vort. Tomorrow may have some morning clouds/precip leftover, but most models get that out of the way by early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Yeah, pretty interested in tomorrow but I work at ORD till 6am. Thankfully it shouldn't be more then a 3hr drive from home if it's worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 New day 2 stays at marginal for IN/sw OH but SPC mentions slight risk might be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 New day 1 stays slight risk for MO/W IL/E IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Things are progressing about as planned regarding today's potential. A ribbon of instability is slowly building immediately west of the ongoing clouds/precip. Nice surface convergence in place a little east of I-35. Dews are looking pretty decent relatively speaking, generally in the 66-67 degree range in target area. Capping looks pretty meager, so things may kick off a bit earlier than expected. Gonna head west in a bit and head down towards Sigourney IA and wait. The better sups will likely be moving nearly due south once they get fully established/dominant, so the best play will be to stay a little southwest of them. May have to follow them into northeast MO or far west-central IL eventually. Hoping to see some decent structure, and of course a tor would be icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 New day 2 has introduced a slight risk for se IN, most of the east half of KY and sw/ parts of central OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Things are progressing about as planned regarding today's potential. A ribbon of instability is slowly building immediately west of the ongoing clouds/precip. Nice surface convergence in place a little east of I-35. Dews are looking pretty decent relatively speaking, generally in the 66-67 degree range in target area. Capping looks pretty meager, so things may kick off a bit earlier than expected. Gonna head west in a bit and head down towards Sigourney IA and wait. The better sups will likely be moving nearly due south once they get fully established/dominant, so the best play will be to stay a little southwest of them. May have to follow them into northeast MO or far west-central IL eventually. Hoping to see some decent structure, and of course a tor would be icing on the cake. Good luck Joel! Keep us updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Good luck as well, Joe. I'd pick ne MO as the best chance for seeing a tor. Dews are as you mentioned and both low and mid level helicity is quite significant at present. Hope you have a rewarding afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME FROM CNTRL MO INTO WRN IL. TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED. THE ST. LOUIS AREA IS IN THE HIGHEST THREAT CORRIDOR. DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL IA AT 18Z. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WIND SHIFT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW...WITH AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW NEAR THE MS RIVER IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN ONGOING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG HEATING AND MIXING HAS COMMENCED UPSTREAM OF THE AREA...WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM KS INTO WRN MO. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CIN REMAINING AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 80S F. AS THE SURFACE LOW TRAVELS SEWD...LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST AHEAD OF IT WILL REMAIN BACKED...WITH A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COUPLED WITH FAVORABLY VEERING WIND SHEAR PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL STRONGLY FAVOR SUPERCELLS...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH STORMS MATURING AS THEY TRAVEL SEWD. OTHER CELLS WILL FORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE ADVANCING WIND SHIFT WITH A HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Latest LSX VAD VWP showing backing in the low levels and quite a bit of shear overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 10% tor added in 20z outlook. Lull in activity early this afternoon (partially unexpected to a degree) should be boosting instability a bit higher than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 10% tor added in 20z outlook. Lull in activity early this afternoon (partially unexpected to a degree) should be boosting instability a bit higher than forecast.Winds remain locally backed to the SSE as well across portions of the Mississippi River Valley too. Forecasts were quicker to veer and considering the upper levels are NW to NNW, that's plenty of turning. If storms initiate and remain relatively discrete, there could be a localized outbreak of tornadoes. I'm not sold on that being a sure thing, but it's possible. Not sure if the 70F dews near STL are accurate, but if they are, that's above expectation as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 There is that shortwave swinging through, you can see the rotation to the whole cloud field. I like right at the northern edge of that 10%, in NE MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Winds remain locally backed to the SSE as well across portions of the Mississippi River Valley too. Forecasts were quicker to veer and considering the upper levels are NW to NNW, that's plenty of turning. If storms initiate and remain relatively discrete, there could be a localized outbreak of tornadoes. I'm not sold on that being a sure thing, but it's possible. Not sure if the 70F dews near STL are accurate, but if they are, that's above expectation as well. Observations have 68 for several locations along the river in NE MO. Not quite 70 but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 At least radar coverage is awesome in this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 At least radar coverage is awesome in this area... Yeah I was about to mention this, need a radar in Kirksville badly. Not like there isn't a good amount of population in this area either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Yeah I was about to mention this, need a radar in Kirksville badly. Not like there isn't a good amount of population in this area either. I almost forget sometimes just how bad it is. I have DVN as my radar source right now and the lowest level information I can get about that stronger cell near Edina is from 13,000 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Boy that storm near Hannibal developed strong rotation quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 404 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... NORTHEASTERN RALLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT * AT 402 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RENSSELAER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... HANNIBAL AND NEW LONDON AROUND 415 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ILASCO...SAVERTON...HULL AND KINDERHOOK. THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES... INTERSTATE 72 NEAR EXIT 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 That's impressive, pumped out half dollar size hail already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 My LSX NWS radar loops are not showing the warning polygons. Anyone else notice this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rolltide_130 Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 That SVR warned cell near Hallsville is going to be tracking directly into the St. Louis metro, and the parameters will only get better the farther east it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Nice core up by Keosauqua. 60 dbz up around 30 kft. Sign of a potentially stronger updraft there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 These storms are starting to rotate very quickly. Even the cell just east of Vandalia (which I'm under) has a base that's lowering and some visual, weak/broad rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 One more dominant storm and you're probably going to get at least one strong tornado today given the magnitude of the directional shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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