Indystorm Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong but I think besides the problem of a lack of a robust EML this season we have also had a relative lack of strong low pressure systems..say 990 mb. Maybe April 9, but as I think about pressures I've seen with systems that fall short of potential this may have also been a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 7, 2015 Share Posted June 7, 2015 Are we gonna get a setup with a quality EML sometime? lol Yeah it's been pretty frustrating this year. That said, this is more a case of an ill-timed tropical system vs. a longer term EML problem ala the ST jet issues we were seeing in May in the S Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Evidently Cleveland is feeling pretty confident about Friday... Friday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 40% Friday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 50%. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=354&y=121&site=iwx&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=353.5&map_y=121#.VXWYRVVVhHw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Evidently Cleveland is feeling pretty confident about Friday... http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=354&y=121&site=iwx&zmx=1&zmy=1&map_x=353.5&map_y=121#.VXWYRVVVhHw Its definitely caught my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong but I think besides the problem of a lack of a robust EML this season we have also had a relative lack of strong low pressure systems..say 990 mb. Maybe April 9, but as I think about pressures I've seen with systems that fall short of potential this may have also been a factor. The problem has been the lack of heat, pure and simple. You can't have quality EMLs this far NE without a sustained period of dry heat The perpetual NW flow and the now soaking wet Plains are both to blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 8, 2015 Author Share Posted June 8, 2015 Wouldn't be surprised to see Wednesday get upgraded from marginal risk as we get closer. Deep layer shear is marginal for organized severe weather but instability should help compensate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Pattern overall looks pretty good with renewed storm chances through the weekend and into next week, starting Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 frontal boundary looks to get hung up for a while, crossing fingers i end up on the right side this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Wednesday and Friday both interest me for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 8, 2015 Share Posted June 8, 2015 Thursday on the 18z NAM is pretty damn impressive. It lights up the warm front with discrete supercells. An area that usually remains capped but a well timed s/w displaced east of the main upper trof to the west. Scary solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Kind of intrigued with today's setup across the Upper Midwest. Storms will likely be fairly high based with 25-30 degree dew point spreads at the surface. Likely a damaging wind threat and coverage should remain widely scattered at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Seems to be some severe potential via NAM guidance in particular over Lower MI/S Ontario/W NY/NW PA on Wednesday. Fairly impressive shortwave trough/wind fields overspreading the region, will be dependent on destabilization. Worth noting that the GFS also shows adequate instability, but its low level shear is significantly less (common problem this year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 Seems to be some severe potential via NAM guidance in particular over Lower MI/S Ontario/W NY/NW PA on Wednesday. Fairly impressive shortwave trough/wind fields overspreading the region, will be dependent on destabilization. Worth noting that the GFS also shows adequate instability, but its low level shear is significantly less (common problem this year). Timing will be key also. For some locations, an early vs. late afternoon cold front passage will make a huge difference. In these setups, I lean towards the former happening, but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2015 Author Share Posted June 9, 2015 Don't sleep on areas farther west tomorrow. Shear looks less but very strong instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 9, 2015 Share Posted June 9, 2015 NAM/GFS really differ on the placement of the frontal boundary tomorrow. Pulling for the NAM as a perfect prog would give you a few NW flow supercells IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2015 Author Share Posted June 9, 2015 Change of plans...use Alek's thread for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 15, 2015 Share Posted June 15, 2015 18z GFS looks really interesting here next Monday. 00z at ORD Sharpy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 18z GFS looks really interesting here next Monday. 00z at ORD Sharpy: Video game numbers there. The Euro has been hinting at a system during that period too. The dewpoints aren't unreasonable considering how saturated things should be by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 16, 2015 Share Posted June 16, 2015 Video game numbers there. The Euro has been hinting at a system during that period too. The dewpoints aren't unreasonable considering how saturated things should be by then. Saturday for us has looked crazyyyyy on the GFS over the last couple of runs. I'm usually not one to get excited 5-6 days out, but that looks like it has a chance to be fun. Or maybe I'm just guilty of looking too far ahead to find something to break us out of the rut of Marginal/low-end Slight risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Good potential for two MCS's...first one across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Friday night and then Saturday night for the Western Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2015 Author Share Posted June 18, 2015 Started a thread for the severe/heavy rain threats June 20 and beyond http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46495-june-20-and-beyond-heavy-rainsevere-threats/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 18, 2015 Share Posted June 18, 2015 Saturday for us has looked crazyyyyy on the GFS over the last couple of runs. I'm usually not one to get excited 5-6 days out, but that looks like it has a chance to be fun. Or maybe I'm just guilty of looking too far ahead to find something to break us out of the rut of Marginal/low-end Slight risks. Too bad timing will suck (as things stand now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Subtle little event may take place on Sunday over Iowa/Missouri/Illinois/southern Wisconsin. Nice little vort rolls down off the west side of the parent eastern lakes upper-level storm. Surface winds stay nicely backed ahead of a cool front and associated surface low/trough. The NAM is most impressive with a respectable 1002mb surface low near LaCrosse. Forecast hodographs look pretty nice late Sunday afternoon, especially over southeast IA. Cape is a little meager compared to what we've been spoiled with lately, but GFS and NAM both forecast surface-based cape over 2000j/kg, with the NAM even showing a few areas over 3000j/kg. The mid-levels are actually pretty decent with H5 winds above 30kts over a wide area, with even a few areas of 40-50kts showing up. The incoming vort, decent instability, and nice shear profiles could make for a decent little late June event. Can definitely see a broken line of sups along or ahead of the cool front late Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 Subtle little event may take place on Sunday over Iowa/Missouri/Illinois/southern Wisconsin. Nice little vort rolls down off the west side of the parent eastern lakes upper-level storm. Surface winds stay nicely backed ahead of a cool front and associated surface low/trough. The NAM is most impressive with a respectable 1002mb surface low near LaCrosse. Forecast hodographs look pretty nice late Sunday afternoon, especially over southeast IA. Cape is a little meager compared to what we've been spoiled with lately, but GFS and NAM both forecast surface-based cape over 2000j/kg, with the NAM even showing a few areas over 3000j/kg. The mid-levels are actually pretty decent with H5 winds above 30kts over a wide area, with even a few areas of 40-50kts showing up. The incoming vort, decent instability, and nice shear profiles could make for a decent little late June event. Can definitely see a broken line of sups along or ahead of the cool front late Sunday afternoon. Sounds like a day with some good hailers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Sounds like a day with some good hailers. Yeah, freezing heights aren't particularly high either. I think we could have a handful of tornadoes if things continue to look the way the NAM shows. Moisture is the biggest question mark regarding tor potential. Hard to believe as wet as it's been lately, but surface dews may not be quite adequate for the lower LCLs we may need to realize tornado potential. At the least we could still be looking at some fairly picturesque supercells with some hail and gusty wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 New NAM looks even better with even more cape. Shows a few areas pushing 4000j/kg. Even if that's overdone, we really don't need as much with shear profiles, plenty of vorticity advection, and excellent surface convergence. Really gotta watch these subtle little NW flow events in mid-summer. They have had a tendency to over-perform in the past.. 00z NAM forecast hodo to the east of Ottumwa at 21z Sunday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Pretty crazy veering with height going from SSE at the surface to NW or even NNW at the EL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I noticed that the NAM is showing dewpoints pooling behind the convergence zone. It looks like low level parcels will be strongly capped in front. There is definitely enough deep layer shear oriented nearly perpendicular to the boundary to consider discrete activity. Definitely something interesting to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Pretty crazy veering with height going from SSE at the surface to NW or even NNW at the EL. Yeah, I'm definitely interested to see how this plays out with this orientation of the features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Pretty crazy veering with height going from SSE at the surface to NW or even NNW at the EL. Buoyancy increases the more southwest you go in the instability axis, so I think the sups will have a tendency to really dig in and pull to the right, or nearly due south as they try to fight to get the best instability. That will only enhance an already impressive SRH. If LCLs end up being reasonable, then we may have something interesting on our hands Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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