Most hate him, but Joe B kinda nailed this winter and says next winter...

[Damage In Tolland]

Idiotic.

I know..They just don't get it

[Hailstoned]

Idiotic.

2nd

[tamarack]

Here's the actual 2nd year El Nino DJF temperature anomaly map based on these 11 winters (weaker Nino's generally the coldest; the four strongest (1896-7, 1905-6, 1940-1, 1987-8) actually averaged near to slightly warmer than normal in New England):

 

1896-7, 1900-1, 1905-6, 1914-5, 1919-20, 1940-1, 1953-4, 1958-9, 1969-70, 1977-8, 1987-8

 

1885-6 (cold weak El Nino winter for most in the E US) is another one but the database to make these maps only goes back to 1895.

 

I can't graph snowfall. For that, you'd need to look back in a snowfall database for your location and calculate it.

 

2ndYearNinoDJFTemps.png

Farmington, Maine averaged well BN for those seasons (DJFM temps were 2.6F below long term avg - 1896-97 omitted as Feb data missing, but that season was probably near avg). Snowfall for the ten seasons with full data was 99% of long term avg, with two big seasons (19-20 and 77-78 at 135%) and the other 8 between 66% and 105%.

For up here 2009-2010 wasn't cold either. I think it was slightly above average temps. Tho obviously it was a cold winter for midAtlantic and southeast.

Farther north 2009-10 was way above avg, and in N.Maine had the mildest DJFM on record, with #2 not even close.  On a temp map fro that period, Maine glows red like a hammered thumb.

 

[West Point, NY]

Whats irritating is people that believe there is climate change. It's cyclical. Period.

Gotta give credit where it is due..................

[Damage In Tolland]

Gotta give credit where it is due..................

"like"

[Brian5671]

JB is thumping his chest after his victories of the last 2 winters.  I expect him to go nuts with some crazy cane forecast this summer..."hurricane kevin to slam into LI with 400 MPH winds and 39 inches of rain"

[GaWx]

JB is thumping his chest after his victories of the last 2 winters.  I expect him to go nuts with some crazy cane forecast this summer..."hurricane kevin to slam into LI with 400 MPH winds and 39 inches of rain"

JB has already said he expects low ACE but a higher than normal % developing close to the US. When did he last not forecast a higher than normal % of storms forming in the western part of the Atlantic basin? If he'd for a change forecast the opposite and if it were to verify, that would do well for his credibility with regard to his tropical fcasts IMO.

[GaWx]

The current Nino continues to be low end weak. So, it has only barely warmed at the sfc in 3.4 in recent weeks. Based on the history of the 12 2nd year Nino's since the late 1800's: if the current one were to remain on the weak to low end moderate side into fall, the chance for another overall cold winter for the eastern 1/3 of the US in 2015-6 would be pretty high though it would help if the NAO were to flip at least down to neutral. Also, a continued weak Niño into fall would bode well for another snowy winter in much of NE.

[ORH_wxman]

The current Nino continues to be low end weak. So, it has only barely warmed at the sfc in 3.4 in recent weeks. Based on the history of the 12 2nd year Nino's since the late 1800's: if the current one were to remain on the weak to low end moderate side into fall, the chance for another overall cold winter for the eastern 1/3 of the US in 2015-6 would be pretty high though it would help if the NAO were to flip at least down to neutral. Also, a continued weak Niño into fall would bode well for another snowy winter in much of NE.

 

 

We'll probably have no idea what ENSO will look like for this fall until at least June.

 

I think it probably won't be a La Nina...but it could def be neutral.

[Brian5671]

JB has already said he expects low ACE but a higher than normal % developing close to the US. When did he last not forecast a higher than normal % of storms forming in the western part of the Atlantic basin? If he'd for a change forecast the opposite and if it were to verify, that would do well for his credibility with regard to his tropical fcasts IMO.

agree...needs to forecast and get right a warm/snowless winter and a cane season that is no big deal-he always has some "in close" warnings etc etc

[GaWx]

We'll probably have no idea what ENSO will look like for this fall until at least June.

I think it probably won't be a La Nina...but it could def be neutral.

Per the latest CFSv2 forecasts and taking into account the warming of an already quite warm subsurface, the chances appear to be increasing somewhat that the 2015 El Niño peak won't be weak though that could still be the case. IF the peak turns out to be on the stronger side (say, high end moderate to strong), the odds based on previous strong 2nd year El Nino's would tend to favor the winter of 2015-6 not be an overall cold one for the E 1/3 of the US unlike the prior two winters though a near normal DJF averaged out would still be quite possible. So, if that were to occur, JB would likely end up being too cold if he ends up actually going cold. Let's see how fast the warming actually progresses over the next few months. Last year near this time, the subsurface was similarly quite warm and yet the Niño only made it to a low end weak peak per the ONI. However, last year we were coming off of high end neutral negative per the ONI. This year we already have a low end weak Niño to start. So, we have a significant headstart of sorts.

[ORH_wxman]

Per the latest CFSv2 forecasts and taking into account the warming of an already quite warm subsurface, the chances appear to be increasing somewhat that the 2015 El Niño peak won't be weak though that could still be the case. IF the peak turns out to be on the stronger side (say, high end moderate to strong), the odds would tend to favor the winter of 2015-6 not be an overall cold one for the E 1/3 of the US unlike the prior two winters though a near normal DJF averaged out would still be quite possible. Let's see how fast the warming actually progresses over the next few months. Last year near this time, the subsurface was similarly quite warm and yet the Niño only made it to a low end weak peak per the ONI. However, last year we were coming off of high end neutral negative per the ONI. This year we already have a low end weak Niño to start. So, we have a significant headstart of sorts.

 

I would almost completely disregard the CFS2 at the moment. It is on the warmer edge of the model envelope...and not even taking into account that fact, we still have the "spring barrier" to make through before the models produce much of any skill predicting ENSO for the autumn/winter.

 

The statistical models at the moment barely get this to weak Nino by autumn after cooling us a bit in early summer to warm-neutral. I do tend to favor either warm-neutral or El Nino at this point, but I do know that trying to predict the strength at this point probably has zero skill.

[CoastalWx]

The dynamical models always initialize and key in on any upwelling or downwelling features which can cause incorrecr forecasts like we saw last Spring. The statistical models sort of "take a look around" at some metrics and give a forecast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The dynamical models always initialize and key in on any upwelling or downwelling features which can cause incorrecr forecasts like we saw last Spring. The statistical models sort of "take a look around" at some metrics and give a forecast.

I favor another weak Nino, too, but really wouldn't be suprised if that didn't because we are so due for a down year lol

[CoastalWx]

I favor another weak Nino, too, but really wouldn't be suprised if that didn't because we are so due for a down year lol

Yeah who knows. I think it's safe to say we won't have a winter like this one, but wouldn't it be funny if the -NAO came back.

[GaWx]

New tweet from JB:

"Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

@energyrabbit heh, remember who you talked to way back in summer about how nasty winter would be for the east this year. Another next yr"

However, the latest weekly and current 3.4 situation suggest that the chance for a weak to low end moderate peak associated with the 2nd year of the Niño is dropping while the chance for high end moderate to strong is increasing. With weak to low end moderate and a solid +PDO, the frequency of really cold E US winters has been quite a bit higher than that for strong/high end moderate. Only 1957-8 and 2009-10 come to mind for the latter. Well, you guessed it, he may be hinting at 1957-8 as a good analog for 2015-6. One thing to keep in mind is neither of 1957-8 and 2009-10 was a 2nd year Niño. I haven't found any solid cold high end moderate to strong 2nd year Niño winters for the bulk of the E 1/3 of the US. Could 2015-6 be the first one going back at least to the late 1800's?

Edited