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Most hate him, but Joe B kinda nailed this winter and says next winter...

Hambone

By Hambone,
in New England

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Although JB has clearly been biased cold in the E US overall, I think he may be onto something for next winter and he did end up doing pretty well these last two winters:

2nd year El Niño DJF's temperature anomalies:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45270-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-iii/?p=3503966

This writeup is from a SE US perspective, but there is also a full US map in the post. Based on it, one can see an overall bias of cool for the E US as a whole.

If we get another weakish El Niño (say weak to low end moderate), if a solid +PDO persists (quite likely per long range models into the fall at least), and if we can get a -NAO for next winter, next winter would likely end up being cold for the bulk of the E 1/3 of the US per historical patterns/indices. If it ends up being cold, it would mean the 3rd in a row overall cold DJF for the E 1/3 of the US for the 1st time since 1976-7 through 1978-9. The time before that was 1967-8 through 1969-70.

Also, if the next Niño peak ends up weak to low end moderate, I suspect that would give places like Boston a good shot at a snowy winter based on past weak El Niño's including 2014-5.

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Although JB has clearly been biased cold in the E US overall, I think he may be onto something for next winter and he did end up doing pretty well these last two winters:

2nd year El Niño DJF's temperature anomalies:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45270-winter-2014-2015-pattern-discussion-thread-iii/?p=3503966

This writeup is from a SE US perspective, but there is also a full US map in the post. Based on it, one can see an overall bias of cool for the E US as a whole.

If we get another weakish El Niño (say weak to low end moderate), if a solid +PDO persists (quite likely per long range models into the fall at least), and if we can get a -NAO for next winter, next winter would likely end up being cold for the bulk of the E 1/3 of the US per historical patterns/indices. If it ends up being cold, it would mean the 3rd in a row overall cold DJF for the E 1/3 of the US for the 1st time since 1976-7 through 1978-9. The time before that was 1967-8 through 1969-70.

Also, if the next Niño peak ends up weak to low end moderate, I suspect that would give places like Boston a good shot at a snowy winter based on past weak El Niño's including 2014-5.

 

 

2008-09 was colder than normal for the MW-Lakes-Northeast, so we did have a 3 year run 2008/09-2009/10-2010-11.

 

33ohzed.png

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

When you go cold and snow all the time, you'll

Be right eventually.

 

That is my biggest issue with him.

 

Plus the fact that if you say cold and snow for the upcoming winter, the general public always thinks you've nailed it. Even in the mildest of winters people generally think it's cold and more often than not a large portion of the country is cold enough to snow.

 

In other news, this summer will feature heat and humidity.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

That is my biggest issue with him.

 

Plus the fact that if you say cold and snow for the upcoming winter, the general public always thinks you've nailed it. Even in the mildest of winters people generally think it's cold and more often than not a large portion of the country is cold enough to snow.

 

In other news, this summer will feature heat and humidity.

Even in 97/98 and 01/02 my mom would ask me, "when is it going to warm up?"

 

:(

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

2008-09 was colder than normal for the MW-Lakes-Northeast, so we did have a 3 year run 2008/09-2009/10-2010-11.

33ohzed.png

Isotherm,

Thanks. Just to clarify in case there's any confusion among others (though I think you realized what I meant), I was referring to the bulk of the E 1/3 being cold anomalywise during DJF averaged. As your map shows, 2008-9 was cold only pretty far north in the E US.

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ariof

ariof

Posted
Posted

When you go cold and snow all the time, you'll

Be right eventually.

 

My thought exactly, just reading the headline. When was the last time he didn't forecast cold and snowy? Certainly not 2011-12—he had everyone cold and snowy that winter, and that didn't happen.

 

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while.

Etc.

 

(Although not about global warming. He spends half that video yelling about how it's a lie. Good grief.)

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

lol that was my response. I'll pay attention when he calls for a season long torch.

It's the same on here most of the time...there's never a shock when certain folks lean cold or snowy all the time.

Yeah...if I want a winter forecast I'll wait until mid fall and see what Scott, Will, Don, HM, NJHurr, etc have to say.

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JBG

JBG

Posted
Posted

His denial of climate change is irritating and yes there's a clear east coast bias that extends from the hurricane season to winter. It's no shock given where he gets a lot of subscribers and he tells them what they want to hear.

Actually it's his saving grace.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Here's the actual 2nd year El Nino DJF temperature anomaly map based on these 11 winters (weaker Nino's generally the coldest; the four strongest (1896-7, 1905-6, 1940-1, 1987-8) actually averaged near to slightly warmer than normal in New England):

 

1896-7, 1900-1, 1905-6, 1914-5, 1919-20, 1940-1, 1953-4, 1958-9, 1969-70, 1977-8, 1987-8

 

1885-6 (cold weak El Nino winter for most in the E US) is another one but the database to make these maps only goes back to 1895.

 

I can't graph snowfall. For that, you'd need to look back in a snowfall database for your location and calculate it.

 

post-882-0-30825000-1427047759_thumb.png

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Isotherm,

Thanks. Just to clarify in case there's any confusion among others (though I think you realized what I meant), I was referring to the bulk of the E 1/3 being cold anomalywise during DJF averaged. As your map shows, 2008-9 was cold only pretty far north in the E US.

For up here 2009-2010 wasn't cold either. I think it was slightly above average temps. Tho obviously it was a cold winter for midAtlantic and southeast.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

I want to see JB nail a warm winter.   Call it warm and have it verify warm.    He busted horribly in the 3 warmest winters of the last 15 years, 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12.   Secondary bust for saying  the 2nd half of each was going to bounce back (which didn't happen in any of them)

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

I want to see JB nail a warm winter.   Call it warm and have it verify warm.    He busted horribly in the 3 warmest winters of the last 15 years, 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12.   Secondary bust for saying  the 2nd half of each was going to bounce back (which didn't happen in any of them)

 

 Agreed 100%. I think that would go a good ways toward redemption and improve his objectivity image. Regardless, stopped clock or not, he has done well these last two winters. If we get a weak to low end moderate Nino peak later this year, I'd then expect his cold winter feeling for next winter to verify well as per my posts earlier in this thread. (2nd year Nino's that are weak have usually been cold for the E 1/3 of the US as a whole and easily the coldest of 2nd year Nino's). Also, weakish Nino's may actually have been about the most prolific snow producer of any ENSO for a good portion of New England when averaged (EXCLUDING 2014-5) based on recollection though I don't have actual stats to show now.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

 Agreed 100%. I think that would go a good ways toward redemption and improve his objectivity image. Regardless, stopped clock or not, he has done well these last two winters. If we get a weak to low end moderate Nino peak later this year, I'd then expect his cold winter feeling for next winter to verify well as per my posts earlier in this thread. (2nd year Nino's that are weak have usually been cold for the E 1/3 of the US as a whole and easily the coldest of 2nd year Nino's). Also, weakish Nino's may actually have been about the most prolific snow producer of any ENSO for a good portion of New England when averaged (EXCLUDING 2014-5) based on recollection though I don't have actual stats to show now.

 

 

Yes, they have been. I ran stats on weak Ninos years ago for Soutern New England and they were by far the snowiest ENSO sub-group in dominant fashion. But granted, the sample was like 7-8 seasons.

 

2014-2015 will only add to the list of prolific weak Ninos in SNE. The only weak Nino that actually wasnt above average was 1951-1952 and that was pretty much at average. Though SE MA/Cape did very well that season. ACK had like 55" that winter.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Yes, they have been. I ran stats on weak Ninos years ago for Soutern New England and they were by far the snowiest ENSO sub-group in dominant fashion. But granted, the sample was like 7-8 seasons.

 

2014-2015 will only add to the list of prolific weak Ninos in SNE. The only weak Nino that actually wasnt above average was 1951-1952 and that was pretty much at average. Though SE MA/Cape did very well that season. ACK had like 55" that winter.

1979-80 or 1978-'79?

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

His denial of climate change is irritating and yes there's a clear east coast bias that extends from the hurricane season to winter. It's no shock given where he gets a lot of subscribers and he tells them what they want to hear.

Whats irritating is people that believe there is climate change. It's cyclical. Period. Anymore please take it to AP forum
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