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March 22-23 Snow


Hoosier

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Models coming into relative agreement on a NW-SE oriented band of snow from the Northern Plains southeastward toward IL/IN.  The general idea is for a weakening trend as it heads east but just how quickly this happens remains to be seen.  This event, if not frontogenesis driven, has decent frontogenetic support which means that we could see some decent totals in a narrow band if things work out.

 

 

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Expecting about 1/4" of cold rain here.

 

 

imo, things look a bit more interesting around there than you're suggesting.  Forecast thermal profiles support a messy mix and with a deep layer of steep lapse rates aloft, it may be showery/convective.

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Precip type looks tricky here.  Onset should be sometime Monday afternoon so we'll have had plenty of hours to warm up, but low level dry air looks like it will play a role and there could be enough cooling to allow for some snow or at least a mix. 

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Prob have some variations of precip type here, but all in all a non-event in this area.  May be a narrow corridor of decent accums up north, but over such a small swath it's hard to pin down where that will occur.  These little narrow late-season systems can be a bit interesting, but this one is so narrow it's more annoying than anything.  

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T looks about right for the LAF, barring an earlier onset to the precip. But even then...

 

GFS has us in the low 40s at 18z Mon, but wetbulb zero is sub 1000 feet and it would cool pretty quickly with precip.  Forecast sounding looks very typical for this time of year with that warm layer near the surface.

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Looks like the dry air in the LL is already being overcome. Some very light snow falling here now. Models took a little jog south, but still looking like 3-5" on tap. Nice rates possibly over 1"/hr at times.

 

Another storm where I wish I was farther south. I'd actually be a bit worried if north of 94.

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