downeastnc Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Euro keeps the "system" offshore but the GFS. CMC and Navgem all bring it in anywhere from central SC to ILM..... CMC has a pretty decent low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 Euro keeps the "system" offshore but the GFS. CMC and Navgem all bring it in anywhere from central SC to ILM..... CMC has a pretty decent low cmc cane 2.png Yeah man, one thing looks certain with this potential TS and thats the fact that it will linger for a couple of days off the coast. That in itself will magnify any effects from this weak TS. The models continually struggle though with tropical development so this thing could really ramp up, or just die a slow death to dry air. I am glad to have some active weather to track though, things were starting to get boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 This summer could easily be a repeat of 1993 in our region, which featured 2 solid months of near 100 degree heat and less than 1 inch of rain at my location from May 1 through September 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 I saw some photos this morning that part of the beach road in Kitty Hawk in front of the Black Pelican restaurant washed away. A storm off-shore combined with a full moon did the damage. I hope the potential coastal system this week stays away. I wonder if it could produce some severe weather inland. I'd rather have the long stretch of warm and dry weather, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 This summer could easily be a repeat of 1993 in our region, which featured 2 solid months of near 100 degree heat and less than 1 inch of rain at my location from May 1 through September 15.I thought your location always only gets an inch, from May to Sept?!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 I saw some photos this morning that part of the beach road in Kitty Hawk in front of the Black Pelican restaurant washed away. A storm off-shore combined with a full moon did the damage. I hope the potential coastal system this week stays away. I wonder if it could produce some severe weather inland. I'd rather have the long stretch of warm and dry weather, though. These photos were taken 2 days apart over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 These photos were taken 2 days apart over the weekend Living on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 I thought your location always only gets an inch, from May to Sept?!! It has only been that dry 1 time, in 1993. Even in years like 2007, 1986, and 1999 we managed to get some decent rainfall here. My rain gage was messed up in 2013, but I would bet I got close to 20 inches of rain that summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 I don't see any hot weather patterns setting up in the short term. The 6z GFS did show some hot temps at the day 15/16 timespan but we'll see. Any cool temps we get now is really bonus. We're getting close to that point where you turn on the AC and leave it on until September. Here is day 8 on the 12z GFS (should equate to cool-ish surface temps): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=192ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150505+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Wow RAH punted the long term about the coastal "low" on this afternoons AFD......went with a copy and paste from last night..... FXUS62 KRAH 051840 RRAAFDRAHAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC240 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015.SYNOPSIS...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO OUR REGIONTHROUGH MID WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE BAHAMASAND MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL NC...EVEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. MILD LOWS TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. -- End Changed Discussion -- &&.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL STALL TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE U.S. AND OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE BIGGER FEATURE WILL BE THE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT OVER CENTRAL NC BEING INCREASING CLOUDINESS FROM THE SE AND AN INCREASE IN AFT/EVE WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFT/EVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL NC. WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS... AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA... EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND SOME WEAK WAA...LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S. -- End Changed Discussion -- &&.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AS OF 247 AM TUESDAY...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OF UPPER LEVELRIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THEWEEKEND... THE TROUGHING OUT WEST. HOWEVER... MODELS STILL LIKELY DONOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL COASTALSTORM THAT WOULD DEVELOP UNDER THE RIDGE. IT STILL APPEARS THAT MOSTMODELS KEEP THE SIGNIFICANT RAINS OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEMEXCLUSIVELY. HPC CONTINUED TO FAVOR A BLEND OF THE TWO CAMPS OFMODELS TO ENSURE CONTINUITY OF CURRENT FORECASTS. THIS IS ACCEPTEDAS THE BEST STARTING POINT FOR OUR LATE WEEK FORECAST.OUR CHANCE OF RAIN MAY END UP MOSTLY COMING FROM A SCATTERING OFMAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FOCUS ALONG ORNEAR THE EXPECTED BACKDOOR FRONT THURSDAY AND THEN WHAT IS LEFT OFTHE BOUNDARY FRIDAY. IN ADDITION... SOME MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLYCOME INTO PLAY FROM THE LOW PRESSURE - BUT THE DETAILS CONTINUESKETCHY AT BEST. UNTIL THAT PROCESS IMPROVES... WE WILL CONTINUE TOFORECAST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT AS THE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BECOME 60+ BY FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR NOW WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY EACHDAY. A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 60-65. HIGHS 78-85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Wow RAH punted the long term about the coastal "low" on this afternoons AFD......went with a copy and paste from last night..... Very interesting considering how the 12z Euro looks totally different from what it was showing this morning. Instead of the system lingering around the Gulf Stream, the Euro now shows a solution where the storm intensifies over the weekend slightly before coming ashore near Wilmington. Not sure if this will go fully tropical or not but the GFS, Euro, & NAM all have it coming on shore and providing a lot of rain for coastal areas or SC/NC/GA. This one will be interesting to watch. The longer that thing hangs around the Gulf Stream, the better the chances are for it to go tropical..imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 They gave a late (for RAH) update .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 415 PM TUESDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAINS THE EVOLUTIONOF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH POSSIBLE SUB-TROPICALCHARACTERISTICS...FORECAST TO FORM NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFT NEARTHE SOUTHEAST US COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE TWO MODELCAMPS REMAIN...WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE NCEP ONES ON THEWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO MORE EASTERN ONES DEPICTEDBY THE NON-NCEP MODELS...THE SPREAD HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED INTHE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DECREASING MODEL SPREAD RESULTS FROM AWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE NON-NCEP GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE 12Z OPECMWF...WHICH YIELDS RELATIVE INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN ACLOSER TO THE CAROLINAS COAST MEANDER OF THE LOW THROUGH THEWEEKEND.HOWEVER...NO SOLUTION IS TRULY OFF THE TABLE...SINCE THE STEERINGFLOW FOR THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE WEAK ON THE SOUTHERNPERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE EAST COAST. INFACT...THE RIDGE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER LOWANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM THE SE STATES TO THE YUCATANCHANNEL...WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A BRIEF REXBLOCK...WHICH WOULD INDEED FAVOR SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OF ANYCYCLONE TRAPPED WITHIN IT. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A KICKER SHORTWAVETROUGH TO MIGRATE SLOWLY FROM THE PAC NW TODAY TO THE MS VALLEYEARLY NEXT WEEK TO FINALLY CAUSE THE LOW TO LIFT NE AND AWAY FROMTHE NC/VA COASTS EARLY NEXT WEEK.WILL FOLLOW THE WPC-PREFERRED "COMPROMISE" SOLUTION BETWEEN THE TWOMODEL CAMPS INDICATED ABOVE...BEST ILLUSTRATED BY A 12Z GFS/ECBLEND...WHOSE RESPECTIVE MASS FIELDS ARE REALLY NOT TOO DISSIMILAR.THE RESULTANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS ANDPROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST BY LATETHU...WITH THE LATTER PROBABILITIES RANGING FROM CHANCE OVER THECOASTAL PLAIN AND EASTERN SANDHILLS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THEPIEDMONT. WITH THE LOW NEARBY AND FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE...LIKELYJUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OFSIMILAR POP DISTRIBUTION -HIGHEST CHANCES SE AND LOWEST NW- WILL BEHARD TO BEAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PROVIDED THE TIMING OF THE KICKERWAVE REMAINS CONSISTENT...MON MAY BE THE RELATIVE DRIEST DAY OF THEPERIOD IN BRIEF SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LOW AND IN ADVANCE OF THEFRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE KICKER WAVE...FORECAST TO ARRIVEON SUN.TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...INTO THE 70S MAINLY OVEREASTERN AREAS...GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHERPRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE MORE WESTWARD FORECAST SOLUTIONS FORTHE LOW. IF THE LOW WERE TO STAY OFFSHORE AND FARTHER SE OF NC...THEAIR MASS WOULD SUPPORT LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S...AND SOME UPPER 80SPROBABLE BY TUE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 The GFS says very little rain for 16 days over upstate SC. It's looking like we may be going to be getting hotter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 5, 2015 Share Posted May 5, 2015 Nice I thought it was odd for RAH to do that....looks like yet another washed out weekend and after almost 8" of rain IMBY in April I hope this thing is not as wet as a true tropical system...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Yeah, the rain on the weekends is getting really old in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Yeah, the rain on the weekends is getting really old in NC. Last weekend was the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Last weekend was the worst.Exactly! 75/55 with full sun, oh the humanity!On a more serious note, not a drop of rain here since May 1, none in sight for a while, just gonna keep an eye on this as we don't need the drought to start this soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 6, 2015 Share Posted May 6, 2015 Last weekend was the worst. Yeah, my yard is still under water! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 7, 2015 Share Posted May 7, 2015 6z GFS has dew points near 40 along the NC/VA boarder at day 7. Should equate to cool weather for mid/late next week. And when I say cool (now) I mean anything below 80 degrees. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=05&model_dd=07&model_init_hh=06&fhour=168¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Stu Ostro 6 mins · A preseason trosum (tropical summary), given the thing being forecast by models next week that's getting attention ... -- Low pressure system likely to form off southeast U.S. coast mid next week -- Slight chance of taking on characteristics of a "hybrid" system (combo of non-tropical and tropical) Models have been predicting a low pressure system to form just east of Florida during the middle of next week. If it does it would start as a non-tropical system. There is a slight chance of it transitioning into a subtropical one (a hybrid that is a combo of tropical and non-tropical). The chance of ultimately becoming tropical enough to be officially designated as a tropical cyclone (depression or storm) is a long shot, though not zero. Last GFS run has the thing several hundred miles south of Hatteras from roughly hr 150 to hr 222, that's a long time for it to hang out out there, interestingly if correct the GFS has it sitting over the GS with a fresh supply of deep warm water constantly moving in under it...so I can see how it could end up warm core.... oh and the CMC has this CMC cane.png Euro keeps the "system" offshore but the GFS. CMC and Navgem all bring it in anywhere from central SC to ILM..... CMC has a pretty decent low cmc cane 2.png Not bad modeling at 10 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Pattern change or just wishful thinking!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Not bad modeling at 10 days out No doubt, it was shockingly good actually...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Pattern change or just wishful thinking!? Wishful thinking probably. Those forecast are almost never right regardless of what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Wishful thinking probably. Those forecast are almost never right regardless of what they show.They nailed this heat and dry spell going on now ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Pattern change or just wishful thinking!? I seriously doubt that forecast for rain pans out, but the temps will.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 They nailed this heat and dry spell going on now ! Thats one thing that will always pan out....While the rest of the country gets storms, tropical storms and blizzards.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 I see 1993 as an analog for this spring and summer. The pattern looks a lot like that year now, with cool weather in the plains and a ton of rain and storms from Texas into the upper midwest, along with our hot and dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Hot and dry is a lot easier for the models to get right. Meanwhile, Texas just continues to get storms every day now it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NRVwxfan. Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 Hot and dry is a lot easier for the models to get right. Meanwhile, Texas just continues to get storms every day now it seems. They need to share some of that water.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 12, 2015 Share Posted May 12, 2015 I see 1993 as an analog for this spring and summer. The pattern looks a lot like that year now, with cool weather in the plains and a ton of rain and storms from Texas into the upper midwest, along with our hot and dry weather.Just had 2 thunderstorms in the past hour! I think one made it your way! Keep hope alive! This summer is nothing like 93! Analogs are good for sh!t! How soon we forget about our blockbuster winter that just past!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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