Solak Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 On Monday, Friday was supposed to be sunny and 70. Now they're calling for showers before noon and 57 for the high. Dang ULL! I've got decks to paint and stain!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 The next 6 days look spectacular. Sunny, Sunny, Sunny, Sunny, Sunny, Sunny. It's been a long time since I've seen 6 straight days of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 29, 2015 Share Posted April 29, 2015 The next 6 days look spectacular. Sunny, Sunny, Sunny, Sunny, Sunny, Sunny. It's been a long time since I've seen 6 straight days of sunshine. I'll rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Well, thank you. I'll be there.....what time is dinner? It varies, but it's all vegetarian fare at my place. So, I guess that means there's no place for me at the Angus Barn GTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 It varies, but it's all vegetarian fare at my place. So, I guess that means there's no place for me at the Angus Barn GTG. Why??? You can get all the asparagus you want! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 It varies, but it's all vegetarian fare at my place. So, I guess that means there's no place for me at the Angus Barn GTG. They have a killer salad bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 On Monday, Friday was supposed to be sunny and 70. Now they're calling for showers before noon and 57 for the high. Dang ULL! I've got decks to paint and stain!! Just last night WRAL said the rain today should come at night, but it's raining this morning. I think they mentioned isolated showers this morning. Nothing like throwing up a 50% chance of showers to make sure you get it right either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Looking at the 6z GFS it actually looks like it will (now) be on the cool side from day 12 onward. Lots of precip over the southern states; especially back towards Texas. Of course take it with a grain of salt, just a few days back it was looing like we would get our first real heat wave. We're now in that time of year where it can get summer hot. The longer we can keep a cool pattern the better. Also a good sign is the amount of precip in Texas. Many times this is where our heat waves can begin or get fueled. The wetter that area stays the better the heat can stay tempered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 I would much rather have days in the 80s and 90s now than cool and rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 I would much rather have days in the 80s and 90s now than cool and rainy. But a cool pattern this time of year can actually mean 70s. Also precip would be more convective giving us at least some sunshine. I think everybody would agree this would be the ideal setup. I'm hoping for a repeat of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Looking at the 6z GFS it actually looks like it will (now) be on the cool side from day 12 onward. Lots of precip over the southern states; especially back towards Texas. Of course take it with a grain of salt, just a few days back it was looing like we would get our first real heat wave. We're now in that time of year where it can get summer hot. The longer we can keep a cool pattern the better. Also a good sign is the amount of precip in Texas. Many times this is where our heat waves can begin or get fueled. The wetter that area stays the better the heat can stay tempered.Great post. Looks like 80s from the weekend and through the following weekend. As you stated, moist soil over TX is great and should definately temper any big heat, for now! And wet brings more wet, so summer is looking avg , hopefully ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted April 30, 2015 Share Posted April 30, 2015 Great post. Looks like 80s from the weekend and through the following weekend. As you stated, moist soil over TX is great and should definately temper any big heat, for now! And wet brings more wet, so summer is looking avg , hopefully ! Thanks! All I hope for is an average summer. Lots of upper 80s some lower 90s and thunderstorms would be a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Stu Ostro 6 mins · A preseason trosum (tropical summary), given the thing being forecast by models next week that's getting attention ... -- Low pressure system likely to form off southeast U.S. coast mid next week -- Slight chance of taking on characteristics of a "hybrid" system (combo of non-tropical and tropical) Models have been predicting a low pressure system to form just east of Florida during the middle of next week. If it does it would start as a non-tropical system. There is a slight chance of it transitioning into a subtropical one (a hybrid that is a combo of tropical and non-tropical). The chance of ultimately becoming tropical enough to be officially designated as a tropical cyclone (depression or storm) is a long shot, though not zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Stu Ostro 6 mins · A preseason trosum (tropical summary), given the thing being forecast by models next week that's getting attention ... -- Low pressure system likely to form off southeast U.S. coast mid next week -- Slight chance of taking on characteristics of a "hybrid" system (combo of non-tropical and tropical) Models have been predicting a low pressure system to form just east of Florida during the middle of next week. If it does it would start as a non-tropical system. There is a slight chance of it transitioning into a subtropical one (a hybrid that is a combo of tropical and non-tropical). The chance of ultimately becoming tropical enough to be officially designated as a tropical cyclone (depression or storm) is a long shot, though not zero. Last nights run of the GFS had it pretty much OTS, the current 6Z run seems to want to stall it for awhile so at the least the beaches will have nasty rip currents all next week..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Last nights run of the GFS had it pretty much OTS, the current 6Z run seems to want to stall it for awhile so at the least the beaches will have nasty rip currents all next week..... 12z stalls it too. The 0z Euro from last night brought it onshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 12z stalls it too. The 0z Euro from last night brought it onshore.Hopefully, models will do better with tropical activity than they do snow storms !? But, why would they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 RAH has picked up on it this afternoon... WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GETS INTERESTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST AS BOTHTHE GFS AND ECMWF GENERATE A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THECARIBBEAN...MOVING SLOWLY NORTH AND STALLING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEMGIVEN THAT IT IS FAR OUT IN THE MODEL FORECAST PERIOD...THE FACTTHAT BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR FEATURES INCREASES THE CHANCE THATSOMETHING OF INTEREST WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTTOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BESOMETHING TO WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 12z stalls it too. The 0z Euro from last night brought it onshore. Last GFS run has the thing several hundred miles south of Hatteras from roughly hr 150 to hr 222, that's a long time for it to hang out out there, interestingly if correct the GFS has it sitting over the GS with a fresh supply of deep warm water constantly moving in under it...so I can see how it could end up warm core.... oh and the CMC has this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Last GFS run has the thing several hundred miles south of Hatteras from roughly hr 150 to hr 222, that's a long time for it to hang out out there, interestingly if correct the GFS has it sitting over the GS with a fresh supply of deep warm water constantly moving in under it...so I can see how it could end up warm core.... oh and the CMC has this CMC cane.png I give it a 90% chance of swinging wide right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 I give it a 90% chance of swinging wide right. Yeah safe bet.....but I can see the weather gods poking us in the eye after 8" of rain in April and letting it hit since you know we need the rain........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 1, 2015 Share Posted May 1, 2015 Yeah safe bet.....but I can see the weather gods poking us in the eye after 8" of rain in April and letting it hit since you know we need the rain........... Haha yeah...it's been soooo dry and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 this will be something odd to, well, it's already been said. RAH has picked up on it this afternoon...REGARDLESS...ITS EVOLUTION WILL BESOMETHING TO WATCH. http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images/blog/trosum_1May2015.html The animation included in the page above really does show more of a subtropical low forming and strengthening. I will watch on the water vapor loops as this happens and i'm sure many other people will too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Latest GFS has the coastal low forming and eventually landfalling as a weak TS maybe in central SC then moving north into central NC.....new GFS run should be out in a few hrs and we can see if this solution sticks around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 The 12Z Euro has next to nothing. Is the GFS fooling us now? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 Yeah safe bet.....but I can see the weather gods poking us in the eye after 8" of rain in April and letting it hit since you know we need the rain........... 8 inches? We only had 2.3 down here and with only .14 falling these past week we could sure use a good rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 2, 2015 Share Posted May 2, 2015 8 inches? We only had 2.3 down here and with only .14 falling these past week we could sure use a good rain. It was a little under that here 7.78" I rounded up. we got hammered with 3-4" a few weeks back on a Sunday night into Monday morning and that was after 1" the Sat evening before so almost half of it came in 36 hrs...on the second loop that line around 3-4 in the morning was good for a 1.5" all by itself. PGV ended the month with 6.55 at the airport location. http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/nc/morehead-city/mhx/history/?date=2015-04-19 http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/nc/morehead-city/mhx/history/?date=2015-04-20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Dang, are going to have to start a tropical thread in May this year?? Special Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center for Sunday May 3, 2015 11am For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves slowly northward.The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Dang, are going to have to start a tropical thread in May this year?? Special Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center for Sunday May 3, 2015 11am For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent Yeah why don't you do the honors I was going to start one this afternoon if no one else had the latest CMC was pretty nice 998 right off Lookout and it stays offshore, Euro brings it across Lookout and into the Pamlico Sound and then OTS and the GFS doesn't seem to know what to do with it lol....it was all over the place on its last run..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted May 3, 2015 Share Posted May 3, 2015 Let's not forget the NAVGEM, it did quite well this winter maybe it'll do decent in the tropics also! It shows it stalling off of SC/GA coastline, similar to GFS and CMC scenario but not as strong as the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 4, 2015 Share Posted May 4, 2015 What happened to all the rain! Here comes the real summer that we all knew would arrive! Long hot and dry spells! I'm so excited and I just can't hide it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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