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Spring 2015: Pattern and Discussion thread


Eastatlwx

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All these springtime Cads are killing our storm chances. I haven't heard thunder since like January. I was at the beach when we had the severe storms earlier in the month.

 

Loving the springtime CADs here.  Storms are nice, but not worth the heat required to get them, IMO.  Keep the heat at bay.  The CAD is always welcome IMBY.

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I would say this spring qualifies as one of the quieter ones for sure. The quality CAD the last couple of weeks has done an amazing job of quelling any thunderstorm activity. I do expect a quick transition to summer heat soon, without question.

Quintessential quite quiet quarter.

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Quintessential quite quiet quarter.

The flow looks quasi-zonal for awhile, which equates to quiet periods of weather , for quite along time ! I think I have the sniffles, hopefully , it's not Ebola !? I may need to quarantine myself for quite a long time and come back when the quiet fall weather comes back!? But in this quiet time, it's quite possible for the new Queen of England to be born and we could play a game of Quiddich or just keep quite quiet-like! :)
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The flow looks quasi-zonal for awhile, which equates to quiet periods of weather , for quite along time ! I think I have the sniffles, hopefully , it's not Ebola !? I may need to quarantine myself for quite a long time and come back when the quiet fall weather comes back!? But in this quiet time, it's quite possible for the new Queen of England to be born and we could play a game of Quiddich or just keep quite quiet-like! :)

 

I think you win!

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This sounds a lot better. From WRAL met Mike Moss:

 

We continue to watch a couple of systems west and southwest of us that could affect the weather here Wednesday into Friday, mainly an upper low over the southern plains and a surface wave of low pressure along an old front in the northern Gulf of Mexico. projections of the movement of the surface low were fairly consistent yesterday in moving it across southern GA and then hugging the NC coast late Wednesday through Thursday, bringing lots of clouds, much cooler than normal temperatures and significant periods of rain. More recent observations and resulting computer forecasts have raised uncertainty by suggesting a small weakening of the upper low as it opens into a wave and pushes east, and the potential for the track of the surface low to follow a more southerly track that keeps it farther from our coast. This would allow for some breaks in the clouds, a lower chance of rain for many of us (especially from Raleigh north), and warmer temperatures than it appeared yesterday.

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This sounds a lot better. From WRAL met Mike Moss:

 

We continue to watch a couple of systems west and southwest of us that could affect the weather here Wednesday into Friday, mainly an upper low over the southern plains and a surface wave of low pressure along an old front in the northern Gulf of Mexico. projections of the movement of the surface low were fairly consistent yesterday in moving it across southern GA and then hugging the NC coast late Wednesday through Thursday, bringing lots of clouds, much cooler than normal temperatures and significant periods of rain. More recent observations and resulting computer forecasts have raised uncertainty by suggesting a small weakening of the upper low as it opens into a wave and pushes east, and the potential for the track of the surface low to follow a more southerly track that keeps it farther from our coast. This would allow for some breaks in the clouds, a lower chance of rain for many of us (especially from Raleigh north), and warmer temperatures than it appeared yesterday.

There is no need to ever look at a forecast beyond 24 hours out, and that may be too far in advance. These models are just flat out awful. Yesterday at 12z, they had 1-2 inches of rain. Now, a few showers. You can't trust the models.

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Well looking at the 12z GFS it doesn't show our heat wave any more. It looks seasonably warm/humid days 8 to 12 or so; then there could be some CAD setup but nothing really dramatic. Basically boring. At the very least no real hot weather. I would love to continue not using the air conditioning as long as possible.  

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There is no need to ever look at a forecast beyond 24 hours out, and that may be too far in advance. These models are just flat out awful. Yesterday at 12z, they had 1-2 inches of rain. Now, a few showers. You can't trust the models.

 

I am glad they were wrong this time. Looks like the rain is going to stay away from here for the most part.

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