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Spring 2015: Pattern and Discussion thread


Eastatlwx

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Any student at NC State that lived in Bragaw on the north side should remember the horrid smell of the huge Bradford pears outside the building. You could not open windows in the spring. The smell made me think of rotting fish mixed with essence of lye soap flakes.

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There are not different kind of Badford pears, but there are trees that look almost identical, I.e., " Cleveland Select" . The Bradford is a hybrid and it re-seeds readily, and the seedlings don't exactly come true to the parent tree and revert back to one of the parent trees called " Callery"pears, and they are most likely the ones sprouting up in abandoned fields and roadsides. There are thorns on these that can puncture tractor tires! So this tree is a nuisance , in many, many ways! :(

 

Yes, the first time I witnessed those, I was surprised.  I had only ever noticed Bradford pears, but this "new" tree had crazy thorns on it, even though it had the same flowers and leaves as the Bradford.  Like, three-plus-inch long thorns that hurt like crazy.  I gave up trying to cut back that tree on the edge of the property I was trying to clean up.  It wasn't worth the pain.

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Any student at NC State that lived in Bragaw on the north side should remember the horrid smell of the huge Bradford pears outside the building. You could not open windows in the spring. The smell made me think of rotting fish mixed with essence of lye soap flakes.

I was at Bragaw last week. Lucky those trees havent blossomed yet.
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 I'll have to recheck them when I go there again though the blooms may then be gone.

 

 I just asked a lawn/garden expert and he wasn't at all aware that they stink and had never heard of that (just like I had never heard about it until now). However, he's around them quite often. So, perhaps the kind that grows in Savannah is a different version that doesn't stink?

This may have been said before but they stink to attract carrion bugs to do the pollination.  Pawpaws are the same way.  That way they don't have much competition unlike all of the sweet blossoms courting honeybees and the like.

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This may have been said before but they stink to attract carrion bugs to do the pollination. Pawpaws are the same way. That way they don't have much competition unlike all of the sweet blossoms courting honeybees and the like.

They may also stink to attract NC State and Duke fans! :)

I'm ready for my freeze Saturday night! I guess winter really loves to kick you when your down! Maybe it will end up 5-10 degrees warmer than what the models are showing now, kind of like they have done all winter!

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Maybe there are different varieties of people that can't smell stink?

Maybe I'm one of these people  :(

 

 

I don't think there will be a freeze imby Saturday night, but I sure can't rule out some frost scattering the ground  :lol:   Looks like I'll get to have one final fire in the fireplace  :D  

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It has been cool and wet a lot lately. Ready for some dry and warmer weather. Going to the OBX tomorrow for the weekend and it looks like the weather is going to suck. I wish the kids had spring break the last week of April or first week of May so the weather would be warmer. 

This is a bad time of year to go to the outer-banks. The ocean temps take longer to heat than the interior land mass, and hence the beach areas are many time the coolest locations in the state.

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It has been cool and wet a lot lately. Ready for some dry and warmer weather. Going to the OBX tomorrow for the weekend and it looks like the weather is going to suck. I wish the kids had spring break the last week of April or first week of May so the weather would be warmer. 

Hey! It's Positive Tom!

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It has been cool and wet a lot lately. Ready for some dry and warmer weather. Going to the OBX tomorrow for the weekend and it looks like the weather is going to suck. I wish the kids had spring break the last week of April or first week of May so the weather would be warmer. 

 

Welcome back Eeyore.

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It has been cool and wet a lot lately. Ready for some dry and warmer weather. Going to the OBX tomorrow for the weekend and it looks like the weather is going to suck. I wish the kids had spring break the last week of April or first week of May so the weather would be warmer.

Yeah its been quite cold and wet lately.

www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthPNormSERCC.png

www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/sercc/MonthTDeptSERCC.png

 

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This is a bad time of year to go to the outer-banks. The ocean temps take longer to heat than the interior land mass, and hence the beach areas are many time the coolest locations in the state.

 

That's why I wish the kids spring break was later in spring, like the end of April or first week of May. But there really isn't anywhere else to go for a weekend around here this time of year that is that nice.

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Pretty normal temps and precip here according to those. But we have had a lot of cloudy, dreary days this month here. And we usually have a handful of days with temps in the mid 70s here in March, but have not had that much this month. Usually temps have been staying at or slightly below normal. 

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That's why I wish the kids spring break was later in spring, like the end of April or first week of May. But there really isn't anywhere else to go for a weekend around here this time of year that is that nice.

Just hit the light houses, Jockeys Ridge, and the Wright Brothers Memorial. Plenty to do out there even if the weather is bad.  

 

Edit:

Brick it looks like Saturday and Sunday will be sunny at Kitty Hawk; BUT high temps will be in the low to mid 40s, lows in the 30s and winds of 15 to 20 mph. Picnic time on the beach....

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Just hit the light houses, Jockeys Ridge, and the Wright Brothers Memorial. Plenty to do out there even if the weather is bad.  

 

Edit:

Brick it looks like Saturday and Sunday will be sunny at Kitty Hawk; BUT high temps will be in the low to mid 40s, lows in the 30s and winds of 15 to 20 mph. Picnic time on the beach....

 

Yeah, we talked about going to the aquarium on Roanoke Island and the Wright Brothers Memorial. The hotel has an indoor pool, too. Tomorrow afternoon doesn't look too bad to go on the beach. 

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RAH said the S word. Who's going to start the thread?

 

THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED VORT CENTER WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS TEMPS FALL THROUGH THE 40S AND INTO THE UPPER
30S...GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW  A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG OMEGA
AND SUFFICIENT RESATURATION OF THE ICE-NUCLEATION ZONE FOR SHOWERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT....FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE TRIANGLE.  SREF
SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF PROFILES AND THE ECMWF DOESNT HAVE
MOISTURE QUITE A DEEP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. WITH A RELATIVELY
SHALLOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...ABOUT 2500 FT PER
GFS SOUNDINGS...ITS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN SHOWERS COULD MIX WITH SOME
SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT
...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT IN MOISTURE PROFILES BEFORE INCLUDING ANY MENTION IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S WEST TO UPPER 30S EAST.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN
ON SATURDAY AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 1270 TO
1280M RANGE.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS...SO ONLY THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE OF DECOUPLING BY SUNDAY MORNING.  THICKNESSES WOULD SUPPORT
SUB-FREEZING LOWS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND EVEN MID 20S GIVEN
MULTIPLE HOURS OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING.


 

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Well RAH has added a chance of snow showers to my grid forecast for very late Friday into early Saturday morning. Of course no accumulations are expected but just maybe some of us can wake up early Saturday morning a see a few last snow flakes.

 

Looking at the 6z GFS it actually looks better for areas in N. central SC (again not talking about accumulations just something falling from the sky):

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_048_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=048&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150326+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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was noticing weird looking slug of moisture last few days upstream that shows advancing Friday but disappears Sat.  Then I read this in Peachtree City AFD

BOTH GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOW
END RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE LATE SAT AM INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE VERY COLD THERMAL PROFILE ACROSS THE AREA...ANY SATURATION
OF THE COLUMN WOULD KEEP TEMPS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
FORECAST AS A RESULT OF ANY PRECIP FALLING THROUGH THE LAYER. ITS A
GOOD THING WE ARE IN LATE MARCH AFTER LOOKING AT THE GFS SOUNDINGS
FOR SATURDAY.

 

So it makes me wonder if we might see some kind of surprise in extreme N. Ga Mtns higher elevations saturday.  

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