SN_Lover Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 I bet you're right about that. I'm not sure why they'd wait until then tho. This thing is getting scary. Did a quick check of Duke's lake levels and things appear to be stable but could change when lakes start warming up and water use increases. Voluntary measures could be posted if the situation does not change in the next several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Using words like severe and scary are a little over dramatic don't ya think? It's not even June yet, jeez oh pete. Guess some things never change around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 Using words like severe and scary are a little over dramatic don't ya think? It's not even June yet, jeez oh pete. Guess some things never change around here. looking at how much rain was received compared to normal, one can begin to entertain those verbs. my area only saw a sprinkle in a month and my well is showing signs of water loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 23, 2015 Share Posted May 23, 2015 I can only water on odd days now, in my neighborhood ! It's like California in my back yard! Their kicking out the Starbucks spring water operation next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 GFS holds on the the early June tropical system, brings it in around Hilton Head this run....still its 14 days out so we shall see....looks wet most places either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 Today's walk was the 3rd in a row with very pleasant conditions (no sweating) north of ATL (mid 70's, dewpoints in the high 40's, and beautiful sunny skies). I can't ask for much better than that. The party is about to end unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 I can only water on odd days now, in my neighborhood ! It's like California in my back yard! Their kicking out the Starbucks spring water operation next week! Your HOA is stupid for imposing restrictions this early. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 This could help ease my water restrictions! I hope this happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 This could help ease my water restrictions! I hope this happens! here is the 60 hour total precip. on the 6z GFS at day 5 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150524+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Should knock back the emerging drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 here is the 60 hour total precip. on the 6z GFS at day 5 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150524+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Should knock back the emerging drought. Move all the >.5" amounts to the mountains and that will be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 here is the 60 hour total precip. on the 6z GFS at day 5 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150524+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Should knock back the emerging drought. Nice. Now let's just hope it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 here is the 60 hour total precip. on the 6z GFS at day 5 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150524+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Should knock back the emerging drought. I would love for that to happen, but Robert is saying to ignore all the rain being printed out on the GFS east of the mountains. This is one time that I hope he is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 I would love for that to happen, but Robert is saying to ignore all the rain being printed out on the GFS east of the mountains. This is one time that I hope he is wrong. The GFS has been very sub-par in that...the model as a whole has been hard to understand ever since the upgrade was done. Anyway...looking at today's data, Euro is teasing in both runs today at splitting the ridge in the east and allow a light, cyclonic flow to develop by next weekend going into the first full week of June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted May 24, 2015 Share Posted May 24, 2015 18z GFS is still precip happy and NAM has trended drier... isn't this usally the other way around? Me thinks Robert might be right and the GFS does a 180 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 Well, Robert has caved to the GFS. I like it when a man is willing to admit when he was wrong and own up to it. Mucho respeto. Now, let's hope his caving is the proper call at this time, and he doesn't have to uncave his cave. (Yeah, I totally just made up that word.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 [brick]Wxsouth says rain. I hope he's wrong, I hate rain and storms. Give me hot and dry any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 [brick]Wxsouth says rain. I hope he's wrong, I hate rain and storms. Give me hot and dry any day.I like Robert ! Hope he's right!But it will only storm when Brick has a baseball game to attend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 25, 2015 Share Posted May 25, 2015 I like Robert ! Hope he's right! But it will only storm when Brick has a baseball game to attend! Yep. Who can forget the big T-Ball Mesocyclone of 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Sadly, I can see the 7:30 update here, becoming a trend as this week progresses! What's wrong with these dam models!??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I was looking at the GFS this morning, and nothing interesting really sticks out. Looks like a lot of mid-upper 80s with chances of thunderstorms. The chances look better for the western (SE) folks. (so) Basically normal warm June temps with afternoon thunderstorms. Could be worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The luck of the SE........ 6z GFS 60 hour precip at day 5: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150527+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model It does get a little better after this; especially for western areas. This would be nice at day 10: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=240ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_240_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150527+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 I like Robert ! Hope he's right! But it will only storm when Brick has a baseball game to attend! Guess when we got rain the one time last week? The night my son had a baseball game. It only rained for an hour but they canceled the game, even though the sun came out afterwards and they could have played. My daughter has a t-ball came tonight so there's a better than average chance it will rain here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Guess when we got rain the one time last week? The night my son had a baseball game. It only rained for an hour but they canceled the game, even though the sun came out afterwards and they could have played. My daughter has a t-ball came tonight so there's a better than average chance it will rain here today. This seems to happen to you all the time. You might think about changing churches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 If the GFS is on to something here...the parts of the Southeast that has been dry in recent weeks (FL/GA/Carolinas) are going to quickly reverse that...First off, you can thank the potential EPAC tropical system that's about to form. If it can get strong enough, what will happen is that heights will begin to rise soon over the Southwest US, so that means somewhere downstream troughing will occur...The GFS for the past several days has been hinting at an upper low in the Southeast or Mississippi River Valley area and I think that feature is starting to lock into the model now...is gets started by Day 5 and by mid next week, it could really turn into quite a moisture pumpDay 5...Day 7...Now...with a nice broad upper low in place, lets add some kind of developing feature on the eastern edge...and look at how the moisture gets sucked northwest in the extended range...Day 5 PWAT's... Day 8 PWAT's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 From today's RAH long range... FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A COMPLICATED PATTERN APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY OR GULF COAST REGION...AND THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW RIGHT NOW...PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA SUGGESTS AT LEAST CLIMO-POPS EACH DAY...DESPITE LACK OF MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Still waiting for today's storms to start popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Actually got a good storm last night. Looks like today's chances are the same as yesterday with scattered storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Actually got a good storm last night. Looks like today's chances are the same as yesterday with scattered storms. Is good better than plain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Is good better than plain? Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I'm not familiar with Glenn Burns (just started following him) , although I have seen his name mentioned in this forum frequently. Just came across this on his Facebook page.... Glenn Burns Looks like we get a chance to dry out tomorrow and Sat before an extended period of wet weather moves in next week. Gretchen Mitchell wow are we going to be another texas situation? Glenn Burns Will be watching that intently. If models are correct, 1-2 inches of tropical rains every day. That could mean around a foot of rain for the week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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