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Spring 2015: Pattern and Discussion thread

Eastatlwx

By Eastatlwx,
in Southeastern States

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

After our cool down the next few days we should start to heat up for days 5 to 7. But looking at the 6z GFS, it looks like we'll cool back down again after day 7. In my opinion, we're having a great May (weather wise): 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=192ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150512+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Looking ahead ---

 

RAH

 

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
HIGHLIGHTING SUNDAY AS POSSIBLY BEING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE-WISE...DEPICTING A MINOR S/W CROSSING OUR REGION DURING
PRIME HEATING. SINCE THIS IS DAY 5...POPS NO HIGHER THAN 30-40
PERCENT SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW BUT IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...HIGHER
POPS WARRANTED. RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN COMBINATION WITH THE
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ON MONDAY THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED IF THE
ATMOSPHERE IS SLOW TO RECOVER FROM SUNDAY'S ACTIVITY.

A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ITS ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY. LATEST GFS MAY BE DISSIPATING THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. TOO QUICKLY. FAVOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHILE MIN TEMPS WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
 

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NRVwxfan.

NRVwxfan.

Posted
Posted

After our cool down the next few days we should start to heat up for days 5 to 7. But looking at the 6z GFS, it looks like we'll cool back down again after day 7. In my opinion, we're having a great May (weather wise): 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=192ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150512+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

I would say the contrary for my area. Been very warm to hot and very little rain. We need a pattern change.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

That is surprising. We weren't overly wet here in April (5.19") but have already picked up 3.17" so far in May.

It's definitely been wet enough in this part of the country. As you stated not overly wet but good enough to keep the plants happy and the pollen down. My grass sure has been growing; I've had to cut every two weeks.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

18z GFS still shows the cool down at day 7. Looks like maybe even a late season CAD:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=192ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_192_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150512+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

6z GFS looks good, temperature wise, for the SE for the next couple of weeks. Lots of rain will continue to fall to the west of us in Texas and the southern plains. As we discussed before this will help temper heat waves going through June. Way out in fantasy land the day 16 GFS sums up the next two weeks and this is definitely what we need to see going into the first part of June: 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150517+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=335

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150517+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=335

 

Day 12 60 hour precip(nice precip amounts in the plains):

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=288ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_288_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150517+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

6z GFS looks good, temperature wise, for the SE for the next couple of weeks. Lots of rain will continue to fall to the west of us in Texas and the southern plains. As we discussed before this will help temper heat waves going through June. Way out in fantasy land the day 16 GFS sums up the next two weeks and this is definitely what we need to see going into the first part of June:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150517+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=335

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=384&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150517+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=335

Day 12 60 hour precip(nice precip amounts in the plains):

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=288ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_288_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150517+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

Great assessment on the rain in Texas keeping temps down for us.
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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Great assessment on the rain in Texas keeping temps down for us.

Thanks, it's kind of hard to find things to track this time of year. Rain in the plains is one of them. (but) No matter what it does out there we'll still heat up (more) for the summer. Hopefully it will be a lot of upper 80s with afternoon thunderstorms and less upper 90s and drought.  

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted

Thanks, it's kind of hard to find things to track this time of year. Rain in the plains is one of them. (but) No matter what it does out there we'll still heat up (more) for the summer. Hopefully it will be a lot of upper 80s with afternoon thunderstorms and less upper 90s and drought.

yeah anything to temper the heat is good. It is nice to see Texas get the rain is needs. I would like to see that rain shield shift East as we get into summer.
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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

The Texas rain may not be our best friend as far as avoiding 100 degree weather and drought. We could very well be under the center of the big summer high pressure and have the hottest and driest weather right in this area, like the years 1986 and 1993. I see this as very likely going to be what happens and say some spots will not see much rain at all until maybe October, and many of us seeing 110 this summer.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

The Texas rain may not be our best friend as far as avoiding 100 degree weather and drought. We could very well be under the center of the big summer high pressure and have the hottest and driest weather right in this area, like the years 1986 and 1993. I see this as very likely going to be what happens and say some spots will not see much rain at all until maybe October, and many of us seeing 110 this summer.

You might be right if we get that big Bermuda high to set up right off the coast; which would keep us close to the center (dryer) and the central US on the peripheral (wetter); but that would still not be as bad as having the intense dry heat that can sweep over us from the SW. At least with the Bermuda high we can get that high to waver and still get those afternoon thunderstorms. Also this would then favor more chances of tropical system affecting the SE.    

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted

You might be right if we get that big Bermuda high to set up right off the coast; which would keep us close to the center (dryer) and the central US on the peripheral (wetter); but that would still not be as bad as having the intense dry heat that can sweep over us from the SW. At least with the Bermuda high we can get that high to waver and still get those afternoon thunderstorms. Also this would then favor more chances of tropical system affecting the SE.    

It's true that for the last few years the big high usually starts in Texas and then builds east, though this year that may not be the case with all the rain they are having. A case could be made I guess, that the big ridge forms over Cal and Nevada and stays out that way this year since it is so dry there. For our area it isn't dry enough here YET to get that ridge, but another 2-3 weeks of dry weather might just do it. The Bermuda high, in its traditional place would be great though for afternoon storms and maybe a tropical system, but I don't think it'll be there.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Wonder if we will finally hit 90 Mon or Tues at PGV, there is a 30% and 50% pop chance respectively and the forecast calls for 88 Mon and 89 Tues......if not then it looks to be another week before we get another chance to get close to 90.  Average mean date for first 90 degree day at PGV is May 5th so already 12 days past the mean but nowhere close to the record latest 90 degree high which is June 13th.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

The Texas rain may not be our best friend as far as avoiding 100 degree weather and drought. We could very well be under the center of the big summer high pressure and have the hottest and driest weather right in this area, like the years 1986 and 1993. I see this as very likely going to be what happens and say some spots will not see much rain at all until maybe October, and many of us seeing 110 this summer.

110?
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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

When's summer going to start? It's not hot or dry enough! I need mid 90s and weeks without rain! I need 93 Shetley summer! My grass is only light brown, I need full, dark brown death! No chance of rain after today, for atleast 10 days! Need a tropical storm already, but the raging niño will keep that from happening, but yet, won't bring us any moisture via the STJ ! I love it! :)

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Yesterday in the northern portion of ATL, I experienced heavy rains from a thunderstorm complex late in the afternoon. This afternoon in Dunwoody (just north of ATL), I experienced not one but two strong to severe thunderstorms only about 3-3.5 hours apart! The 2nd storm is still occurring. It has definitely not a day for a walk, but it has been a very interesting day weatherwise! That's a whole lot of rain these last two days.

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