Brian5671 Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 The snow maps from wx bell and tropical tidbits are one of the worst things that ever invaded these forums. We used to call them clown maps for a reason. We still do call them clown maps don't we?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 The snow maps from wx bell and tropical tidbits are one of the worst things that ever invaded these forums. We used to call them clown maps for a reason. Are 2m temp maps on tidbits of any use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 We still do call them clown maps don't we?? I try to. But they are posted often as serious evidence. I mean, don't get me wrong, they aren't 100% useless but they certainly shouldn't be used to define stiff boundaries or get specific with amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 We still do call them clown maps don't we??The DGEX maps are still the best/worst clown maps, but no one ever posts them anymore :sad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 It was a sweet look for nrn ORH into SNH. Regardless of the snow maps. I bet this area would make out ok in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I try to. But they are posted often as serious evidence. I mean, don't get me wrong, they aren't 100% useless but they certainly shouldn't be used to define stiff boundaries or get specific with amounts. They give you a general idea....especially if you don't have time to closely analyze the run, or don't care to because of ample lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Pike north blaster on the GFS Friday night/Saturday morning. Would be nice...this probably won't sink southward, but my fear is the whiff-rainer oscillation continues for this area. That particular run looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Are 2m temp maps on tidbits of any use? Yeah the rest of the parameters they show are pretty good because they just pull them directly from the GFS data at NCEP...but the snow maps are algorithms that are created by the vender. So the snow maps do not show "verbatim" solutions...they show what the vender algorithm interpretes as snow. QPF is verbatim, the snow amounts are not. Every algorithm is a bit different, and none of them are even that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 The Canadian is a soaker on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 The Canadian is a soaker on Saturday. Completely viable solution. That is the threat here. But hey, I'll take that over another south of pike compressor. I'd rather the old fashioned rain, than the inconsequential white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Completely viable solution. That is the threat here. But hey, I'll take that over another south of pike compressor. I'd rather the old fashioned rain, than the inconsequential white rain. Its not always about what you want. What about what others want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 TORCH on the Euro on Friday. That would probably create some hydro problems with heavy rain in N NE. Euro is 70F for BOS, NYC, HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 TORCH on the Euro on Friday. That would probably create some hydro problems with heavy rain in N NE. Euro is 70F for BOS, NYC, HFD nice at least one spring day before it gets nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Dr. Dew coming for a visit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Yeah the rest of the parameters they show are pretty good because they just pull them directly from the GFS data at NCEP...but the snow maps are algorithms that are created by the vender. So the snow maps do not show "verbatim" solutions...they show what the vender algorithm interpretes as snow. QPF is verbatim, the snow amounts are not. Every algorithm is a bit different, and none of them are even that good. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 TORCH on the Euro on Friday. That would probably create some hydro problems with heavy rain in N NE. Euro is 70F for BOS, NYC, HFD Soaker for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I try to. But they are posted often as serious evidence. I mean, don't get me wrong, they aren't 100% useless but they certainly shouldn't be used to define stiff boundaries or get specific with amounts.I don't know, they seem to give the overall gist of any given run. They are no more or less accurate than any model run deterministic output in my opinion. I mean they are basically 10:1 ratio QPF maps when the column is below freezing. It's essentially a QPF map.If you look at the 12z GFS, the snow maps match what the model is showing, there isn't anything egregiously wrong in the translation between what the model output data shows at various stations vs what the snow map shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Gonna be some hydro issues up here if the EURO is right lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Something will probably happen to ruin that on Friday either with clouds or south flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 TORCH on the Euro on Friday. That would probably create some hydro problems with heavy rain in N NE. Euro is 70F for BOS, NYC, HFD About as warm as it's been in Antarctica the past few days. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Its not always about what you want. What about what others want? Moot point seeing as I don't control the weather. But yes, Id rather rain, than see another 1" relegated to preexisiting pack while you guys plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Moot point seeing as I don't control the weather. But yes, Id rather rain, than see another 1" relegated to preexisiting pack while you guys plow. silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I don't know, they seem to give the overall gist of any given run. They are no more or less accurate than any model run deterministic output in my opinion. I mean they are basically 10:1 ratio QPF maps when the column is below freezing. It's essentially a QPF map. If you look at the 12z GFS, the snow maps match what the model is showing, there isn't anything egregiously wrong in the translation between what the model output data shows at various stations vs what the snow map shows. I think they are terrible, but to each his own. I've seen outputs that make no sense to me. Where it will show very little in a marginal column when clearly there is a signal for heavier snow...and then vice versa. I think the specific 12z GFS solution was a bit light in spots. I definitely prefer non-algorithm based analysis when looking at a model for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 silly Not really. I think most folks are done with the 33-34* white rain. It's miserable. I'd rather 45* regular rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Canadian tracks the fri/sat system from PSF to PWM, that would be an odd track. Plenty of time to trend it further S or W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 I don't know, they seem to give the overall gist of any given run. They are no more or less accurate than any model run deterministic output in my opinion. I mean they are basically 10:1 ratio QPF maps when the column is below freezing. It's essentially a QPF map. If you look at the 12z GFS, the snow maps match what the model is showing, there isn't anything egregiously wrong in the translation between what the model output data shows at various stations vs what the snow map shows. If the GFS-based snowfall maps verified, Katahdin would be over 400" by now, as there's almost always a generous jack pictured for the Baxter Mountains. However, those maps have been quite close for my area since last month's blizz bust - (almost) nothing forecast, (almost) nothing gained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 Canadian tracks the fri/sat system from PSF to PWM, that would be an odd track. Plenty of time to trend it further S or W. So does the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 So does the Euro the models have been fluctuating for some time as expected with the strength and placement of the high pressure pressing down from Canada as well as the strength and position of the southeast ridge which obviously has an impact on the strength and position of the frontal wave as it approaches New England from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 the models have been fluctuating for some time as expected with the strength and placement of the high pressure pressing down from Canada as well as the strength and position of the southeast ridge which obviously has an impact on the strength and position of the frontal wave as it approaches New England from the southwest. My gut is push comes to shove that high is going to nose down and it won't be nearly as warm on Friday as Euro has and it probably ends up cloudy or raining and that may end as wet flakes on Saturday. I don't think the setup favors a warm day or a warm rainer..but rather a cold, raw miserable rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2015 Share Posted March 30, 2015 April 67 showing up quite a bit in analogs years, Orh was -4.3 with 7.3 of snow Bos -3.2 with 3.3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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