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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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We still do call them clown maps don't we??

I try to. But they are posted often as serious evidence. I mean, don't get me wrong, they aren't 100% useless but they certainly shouldn't be used to define stiff boundaries or get specific with amounts.

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I try to. But they are posted often as serious evidence. I mean, don't get me wrong, they aren't 100% useless but they certainly shouldn't be used to define stiff boundaries or get specific with amounts.

They give you a general idea....especially if you don't have time to closely analyze the run, or don't care to because of ample lead time.

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Are 2m temp maps on tidbits of any use?

 

Yeah the rest of the parameters they show are pretty good because they just pull them directly from the GFS data at NCEP...but the snow maps are algorithms that are created by the vender. So the snow maps do not show "verbatim" solutions...they show what the vender algorithm interpretes as snow.

 

QPF is verbatim, the snow amounts are not. Every algorithm is a bit different, and none of them are even that good.

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Yeah the rest of the parameters they show are pretty good because they just pull them directly from the GFS data at NCEP...but the snow maps are algorithms that are created by the vender. So the snow maps do not show "verbatim" solutions...they show what the vender algorithm interpretes as snow.

 

QPF is verbatim, the snow amounts are not. Every algorithm is a bit different, and none of them are even that good.

Thanks

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I try to. But they are posted often as serious evidence. I mean, don't get me wrong, they aren't 100% useless but they certainly shouldn't be used to define stiff boundaries or get specific with amounts.

I don't know, they seem to give the overall gist of any given run. They are no more or less accurate than any model run deterministic output in my opinion. I mean they are basically 10:1 ratio QPF maps when the column is below freezing. It's essentially a QPF map.

If you look at the 12z GFS, the snow maps match what the model is showing, there isn't anything egregiously wrong in the translation between what the model output data shows at various stations vs what the snow map shows.

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I don't know, they seem to give the overall gist of any given run. They are no more or less accurate than any model run deterministic output in my opinion. I mean they are basically 10:1 ratio QPF maps when the column is below freezing. It's essentially a QPF map.

If you look at the 12z GFS, the snow maps match what the model is showing, there isn't anything egregiously wrong in the translation between what the model output data shows at various stations vs what the snow map shows.

 

I think they are terrible, but to each his own.

 

I've seen outputs that make no sense to me. Where it will show very little in a marginal column when clearly there is a signal for heavier snow...and then vice versa. I think the specific 12z GFS solution was a bit light in spots.

 

I definitely prefer non-algorithm based analysis when looking at a model for snowfall.

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I don't know, they seem to give the overall gist of any given run. They are no more or less accurate than any model run deterministic output in my opinion. I mean they are basically 10:1 ratio QPF maps when the column is below freezing. It's essentially a QPF map.

If you look at the 12z GFS, the snow maps match what the model is showing, there isn't anything egregiously wrong in the translation between what the model output data shows at various stations vs what the snow map shows.

 

If the GFS-based snowfall maps verified, Katahdin would be over 400" by now, as there's almost always a generous jack pictured for the Baxter Mountains.  However, those maps have been quite close for my area since last month's blizz bust - (almost) nothing forecast, (almost) nothing gained.

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So does the Euro

the models have been fluctuating for some time as expected with the strength and placement of the high pressure pressing down from Canada as well as the strength and position of the southeast ridge which obviously

has an impact on the strength and position of the frontal wave as it approaches New England from the southwest.

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the models have been fluctuating for some time as expected with the strength and placement of the high pressure pressing down from Canada as well as the strength and position of the southeast ridge which obviously

has an impact on the strength and position of the frontal wave as it approaches New England from the southwest.

My gut is push comes to shove that high is going to nose down and it won't be nearly as warm on Friday as Euro has and it probably ends up cloudy or raining and that may end as wet flakes on Saturday. I don't think the setup favors a warm day or a warm rainer..but rather a cold, raw miserable rain.

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