Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,617
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

Model Discussion for April


Quincy

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

it's really the same event for the 28th ... being pushed back in time a little.  It kind of makes sense to do so, though, because in an increasing amplitude derivative, slowing systems down over original modeling tends to be a prerequisite need.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, I'm going to an outdoor wedding, May 1st, Hingham, Ma.seems like an interesting period, storm wise...hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, right?

we have an outside wedding here Friday , despite me warning the planner about the weather. Brides not knowing climo ftl
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, I'm going to an outdoor wedding, May 1st, Hingham, Ma.seems like an interesting period, storm wise...hope for the best, but prepare for the worst, right?

It begs the question of why anyone would do an outdoor wedding in hingham as early as May 1. I don't like going to ball games at night before June around here though I broke down last year and paid dearly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Has anyone discussed or looked at the 3rd week of April and why there tends to be a few very warm days Almost every year across SNE. We hit 80 again this year, seems like almost every year we are between 80-90 degrees for a few days during this timeframe then cool off again for late April. Seems to be warmer than the first week of May like you were talking about earlier.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Has anyone discussed or looked at the 3rd week of April and why there tends to be a few very warm days Almost every year across SNE. We hit 80 again this year, seems like almost every year we are between 80-90 degrees for a few days during this timeframe then cool off again for late April. Seems to be warmer than the first week of May like you were talking about earlier.

 

This is entirely hypothetical but I have noticed this often in the past, as well...

 

Granted, neither of us have lived for 10,000 years, so our experiential sample set is minimal at best... still, in the time I've been allowed to live between the GL and NE, an early "morchy"/"napril" stint is more often than not a death sentence for term or two in May.

 

Why?

 

My hypothesis is best delivered metaphorically:  it has to do with "seasonal reflex"  ?   Think of is as the winter being a rubber band that is stretched taut and beyond... Then the great puller of the band relaxes grip ...circa the Equinox, and the band comes back and then over-shoots the resting state by a bit... That "over-shoot" is the warm up ... It's a faux spring that comes in when the main polar jet/mean retreats and floods the medium with rotted polar warmth and/or outright season's first Gulf inject.  But, then the band comes back and even overcompensates in the cooler direction, and there's your April snow, or your May case of the quagmires. Finally, the burgeoning subtropical ridging of summer overwhelms and/or the sun just annihilates all gradients and the flow either becomes ring of fire or meandering -- but sans the cold. 

 

But the above paragraph is more like art than science, admittedly...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've heard it postulated it could have something to do with the final stratospheric warming event that takes place every spring. These warmings occur every winter on and off, butn there is usually one final event in late March or thereabouts that set up the late spring/ summer vortex configuration. Every SW event usually pushes cold air to lower lattitudes with somewhat of a lag, maybe 2 up to 3 weeks. So if a final warming event occurs say the end of March, the cold spell would/could coincide around the 3rd week of april.

Other forces are at work im sure, but its plausible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is entirely hypothetical but I have noticed this often in the past, as well...

 

Granted, neither of us have lived for 10,000 years, so our experiential sample set is minimal at best... still, in the time I've been allowed to live between the GL and NE, an early "morchy"/"napril" stint is more often than not a death sentence for term or two in May.

 

Why?

 

My hypothesis is best delivered metaphorically:  it has to do with "seasonal reflex"  ?   Think of is as the winter being a rubber band that is stretched taut and beyond... Then the great puller of the band relaxes grip ...circa the Equinox, and the band comes back and then over-shoots the resting state by a bit... That "over-shoot" is the warm up ... It's a faux spring that comes in when the main polar jet/mean retreats and floods the medium with rotted polar warmth and/or outright season's first Gulf inject.  But, then the band comes back and even overcompensates in the cooler direction, and there's your April snow, or your May case of the quagmires. Finally, the burgeoning subtropical ridging of summer overwhelms and/or the sun just annihilates all gradients and the flow either becomes ring of fire or meandering -- but sans the cold. 

 

But the above paragraph is more like art than science, admittedly...

 

 

There may be some truth to it...in the spring, the wavelengths tend to be really short...so a big wamrup usually requires pretty sharp ridging...well as we know, sharp ridging means that somewhere nearby there is sharp troughing...eventually that ridge moves on and we get welcomed into the death sentence that is a sharp spring trough in the process of cutting off from the flow....

 

Of course, like you, that is a fairly rudimentary way of explaining it, but I think there may be some conceptual merit there. Obviously we'd have to run the mounds of data to see exactly what type of response there is in numeric terms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ski Jay peak next Saturday instead? :lol:

 

Haha, yeah.

 

Jay's photo from this morning...

 

RS14575_Apr23_Snowy_THL-lpr.jpg

 

 

I haven't been up the road to the base of Mansfield yet today, but it was snowing pretty good earlier on the web cam.

 

Fresh wind-blown accumulations on the roof-top of the web cam in the base area.  33F currently at 1,500ft.  Brrrrrr.  That snow on the roof wasn't there yesterday evening.  And all bare patches are white again on the ski trails.  Would explain the persistent flurries we saw this morning in town, but also shows how its a whole other world just a couple miles up the road.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...