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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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Below normal and meh... but... definitely not the worst. Not a ton of rain - mainly dry with some showers. 

if we get sun it won't feel that cold either.  These things always seem overdone with the doom and gloom.  The ULL would have to end up in exactly the wrong spot.    Low probability for any given area.

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if we get sun it won't feel that cold either.  These things always seem overdone with the doom and gloom.  The ULL would have to end up in exactly the wrong spot.    Low probability for any given area.

 

It's true tho - all or nothing with these sort of deals.  The Euro could plausibly take place, and it would be nothing more than 3 or so days of low RH/high 700mb lapse rates.... with daily destructive sunshine and p-size hailers.  Still 55 F at maxes.

 

Or, if a S/W times a bit better in the trough as it rotates up just off shore, we have a coastal to contend with, that drills omega cooling and it's snowing in the ORH Hills.  

 

Those two have very different sensible appeals from nearly the same mid and u/a anomaly... 

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if we get sun it won't feel that cold either. These things always seem overdone with the doom and gloom. The ULL would have to end up in exactly the wrong spot. Low probability for any given area.

Yeah well Mr Hype will make it sound like the apocalypse if it's slightly below normal with scattered showers this time of year. But I agree, these usually seem to produce more sunshine than people are giving credit for. ULL overhead won't be beautiful, but probably a lot of mid-afternoon popcorn stuff with clearing at night again. Unless we get a more consolidated surface low to pump easterly flow into the region, I just picture those days where it's sunny in the morning then popcorn cellular showers of graupel and rain in the afternoon...first over the higher terrain then spreading downwind.

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Yeah well Mr Hype will make it sound like the apocalypse if it's slightly below normal with scattered showers this time of year. But I agree, these usually seem to produce more sunshine than people are giving credit for. ULL overhead won't be beautiful, but probably a lot of mid-afternoon popcorn stuff with clearing at night again. Unless we get a more consolidated surface low to pump easterly flow into the region, I just picture those days where it's sunny in the morning then popcorn cellular showers of graupel and rain in the afternoon...first over the higher terrain then spreading downwind.

you can't be talking about Stowe VT USA with that Euro run
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Yeah well Mr Hype will make it sound like the apocalypse if it's slightly below normal with scattered showers this time of year. But I agree, these usually seem to produce more sunshine than people are giving credit for. ULL overhead won't be beautiful, but probably a lot of mid-afternoon popcorn stuff with clearing at night again. Unless we get a more consolidated surface low to pump easterly flow into the region, I just picture those days where it's sunny in the morning then popcorn cellular showers of graupel and rain in the afternoon...first over the higher terrain then spreading downwind.

 

Same story and panic every year. You always manage to salvage a day maybe two out of an ugly ULL.

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Yesterday late day was pure hell for those of us walking to get from point a to point b. You have to through certain levels of misery every spring. I recall being at Fenway around 4/28 last year with temps in the mid 30s facing a still easterly fetch.

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