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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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We snow

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ECENS/EPS SUGGEST CORE OF COLD AIR ALOFT

SETTLES OVER THE AREA AS MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NY
STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING TO -2C TO
-5C! RISK OF SHOWERS TOO GIVEN COLD AIR AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIX WITH SOME SNOW
AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN!

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Yeah.. Pattern looks like west flow with chilly nights for radiators, and days in the 50's to low 60's, before CU in afternoon. I'm not sure where days of 40's is coming from lol

  

Wed-Saturday look like highs in the 40's..Just a terrible looking setup. Congrats to all who wanted a cold/wet late April and blocking. Enjoy it

It sucks, but we'll get through it together.
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Looks like a lot of local mets are taking my old forecasts and when modeling was showing a milder regime than they are now. Seeing forecasts of near 60 every day this week. That will fail badly. Gotta update with new data

It looks meh...idk about 40s for highs everyday down there. Maybe there will be one here andthere, but I'd lean mostly 50s. Just gotta avoid those 72hr drizzlefests.
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At the end of Napril I think that's awesome. It has the look of an inch or something . Sort of like the Easter deal. We'll see. Either way.. It beats drizzle

 

Glad to see your coming around on putting things into perspective... It's not about a big snow event and never was. It's about having something more to monitor over, as you put it, drizzle, when the teleconnectors actually give some hope of that--

 

Bottom line, if a snow event occurred it's not like it had no support and came out of no where. If nothing occurs, it doesn't mean there was no chance - it only means things didn't break right.  

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Glad to see your coming around on putting things into perspective... It's not about a big snow event and never was. It's about having something more to monitor over, as you put it, drizzle, when the teleconnectors actually give some hope of that--

 

Bottom line, if a snow event occurred it's not like it had no support and came out of no where. If nothing occurs, it doesn't mean there was no chance - it only means things didn't break right.  

 

Yep.

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Having said that ... you can really see on this Euro run shows just how pummeling the sun is on the cold pattern. It's really obliterating the magnitude of it, such that by D6, the entire medium is forcibly moderated to just within a couple degrees C of 0 at 850 all over eastern Canada, the Lake through new england.  That's the sun normalizing that air mass over such a large area...  

 

It's interesting because this was less evidentiary in previous runs... We did warn here and elsewhere that the forces of seasonal change also are playing a role in the background - seems to be taking more of a center stage on this particular run.  Still chilly, but modifying with clear rapidity -

 

it's hilarious too, because all that while a west Atlantic cut-off with sufficient cold to nail New E with a blue bomb lurks just barely too far out at sea to get the deed done.   

 

Gotta love spring.

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Should have came down south for golfing. What a week. Now, disaster strikes.

 

Ekster and I out battling the drizzle at 9:30 AM tomorrow. We're pretty much settled on the fact that regardless of weekend flakes the Monday night/Tuesday SOS is going to keep courses closed for a few days. :flood:

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Glad to see your coming around on putting things into perspective... It's not about a big snow event and never was. It's about having something more to monitor over, as you put it, drizzle, when the teleconnectors actually give some hope of that--

 

Bottom line, if a snow event occurred it's not like it had no support and came out of no where. If nothing occurs, it doesn't mean there was no chance - it only means things didn't break right.  

The big threat is really around 4/28 with the storm forming in the Deep South. Everything before that is just snow showers/rain showers under the cold ULL.

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The big threat is really around 4/28 with the storm forming in the Deep South. Everything before that is just snow showers/rain showers under the cold ULL.

yup, all we hope for is a lobe / piece of vorticity pinwheeling around the larger closed upper lvl low dives down at the correct time .. 

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