Randy4Confluence Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 analogs in general are less useful at this time of year. Not saying they have "no use" per se -- just that one should use them with increased over normalcy, degree of incredulity (to put it nicely..) In the higher gradient months of the year... mid Novy through the (depending on year's tempo...) beginning to end of March, they are more useful. The reason is as much philosophy as it is physics ... but has to do with a stronger, organized faster flow everywhere has few resulting constructs that it can result in ...thus, an analog has greater chance of succeeding a 'redux' However, when the wave lengths shorten, and the flow becomes more nebular, with R-wave fragments and so forth that takes place through (depending on year's tempo..>) early June, this more chaotic construct allows for greater probability for permutations ..some unseen before, that can lead to interesting results. Large potential solution sets means its harder to peg an analog. In this case, however, there is an unusually strong convergence of colder signals for the Lake/OV/SE Canada, and NE regions for 7 to 10 days beginning after this blue bird blue weekend decays into that frontal exchange in about 4 or so days... Post that, strong -EPO (unseasonally strong) appears readying to dump an obnoxiously late cold load into Canada. We see this in the bevy of operational, and in large measure ...their ensemble backing, as 850 mb recession in temperatures. It won't be as extreme as those seen in February during our micro ice age... But -10 C may permeate over the vaster aspect of the Canadian Shield, East of the Can Rockies cordillera as we head into D5 ..6/7. This air oozes south over the border, with an active NAO blocking event (like we have not seen over the recent winter, at that...) helping to ensure it gets S of the border... That all sets the stage for a plausible spring snow in my mind, endemic to this particularly season's method for getting the job done (should it work out...) It is still equally plausible to suffer the cold departure period without recouping snow... But, seeing as April and even May snow occurrence along the 40th parallel ... if there were ever a candidate leading signal for that, this is certainly interesting. We'll just have to see how the chips fall - Interesting ... that -EPO teleconnector has been just incredible for us the past couple of winters now. I don't understand the physics, but I always thought that CAD with a strong high anchored north was pretty necessary for a good storm especially this late, and that the early April event we saw earlier last week was demonstrative of the CAD that a strong high can provide. I guess you and others believe that with such cold ML's, and such saturation caused by a blue bomb, that we can "wet-bulb" this mother to a nice event. Therefore, guess I'll jump on this train with you and others, but I'll need you save me a seat, kay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 No one is going skiing some ski areas are open until May 1st and some people skin up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I'm sure I'm not either Sent from my iPhone sitting under a sub 520 5h in late April is going to bring big surprises to you, damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Euro has not backed off crushing the ENNH WME Whites and Mahoosucs elevations Mon-Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 No one is going skiing Speak for yourself. May 26th 2013: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Speak for yourself. May 26th 2013: kmart7.png kmart2.png Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 nice Noreaster monday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Euro has not backed off crushing the ENNH WME Whites and Mahoosucs elevations Mon-Tues Last night's GGEM was big there too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 What an awful pattern coming up. Just a cold pool overhead. Everything squashed to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 What an awful pattern coming up. Just a cold pool overhead. Everything squashed to south. So Tip's storm is a miss? No snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 So Tip's storm is a miss? No snow? Verbatin yes which was always a risk. It could come back too, but everything was squashed last night. Even yesterday it had that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Verbatin yes which was always a risk. It could come back too, but everything was squashed last night. Even yesterday it had that look. Not the GFS. Well if that happens it's actually better wx wise. You have those nice, sunny mild days near 60 with light winds.. until noon or so..then you build up Cu and you get low topped showers/storms with small hail and gusty winds and temps drop to 46 ..before sun comes out again late..so for those looking to avoid, cold and wet..that's a decent deal..plus we get storms out of it under cold pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Not the GFS. Well if that happens it's actually better wx wise. You have those nice, sunny mild days near 60 with light winds.. until noon or so..then you build up Cu and you get low topped showers/storms with small hail and gusty winds and temps drop to 46 ..before sun comes out again late..so for those looking to avoid, cold and wet..that's a decent deal..plus we get storms out of it under cold pool Yeah the hr 228. That's a lock lol. I mean it was a big block and had that look. Either way, pattern stinks for nice weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 16hrs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 When will the pattern revert back to the early summer feel we've had? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 AWT..torch spots near 80 NWS Boston @NWSBoston 2h 2 hours ago Spring Fever? Morning fog gives way to sunshine & warm temps with highs in the 70s away from the shore! #MA #RI #CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 That Monday rain seems to be getting colder btw. With the High positioned where it is, those easterly winds should cool the coast especially BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Weather is going to suck for the Boston Marathon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Yup a windswept soaking cold rain in the 40's. It's miserable . Worst type of running weather other than heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 I have a sick perverse pleasure out of seeing the cold wet marathon day when I am among the few not off...lol You have to go through cold pool season so we might as well get it done. last year I went to a game on something like 4/28 in a heavy jacket, gloves, hat with temperatures in the 30s but that was due to back door from hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 2007 Patriots Day was pretty nasty It was also the day of the VaTech shooting. I recall sleet I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 2007 Patriots Day was pretty nasty It was also the day of the VaTech shooting. I recall sleet I think I recall it as sunny, very cool, and very windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Yup a windswept soaking cold rain in the 40's. It's miserable . Worst type of running weather other than heat My co-worker said he'd much rather that, than anything 70+. Said it's not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 My co-worker said he'd much rather that, than anything 70+. Said it's not bad.I don't agree. 70 is not that bad. 46 and soaking rain is terrible. Once you sweat and then the rain soaking you .. You can't get warm. Hfd was like that this past Oct. everyone hated it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 I don't agree. 70 is not that bad. 46 and soaking rain is terrible. Once you sweat and then the rain soaking you .. You can't get warm. Hfd was like that this past Oct. everyone hated it Well a driving nor'easter is one thing, but he said some rain and temps near 50 was much better than anything over 70. He's ran 15 marathons so I assume he knows what he's talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Shower at work and dropping temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 40F here in Rangeley with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 2007 Patriots Day was pretty nasty It was also the day of the VaTech shooting. I recall sleet I think I recall it as sunny, very cool, and very windy. 2007 missed being apocalyptic by a few hours. The afternoon before it was 39 with E winds at 25G35. At 6 AM it was 48, there were 40G50 winds from the ESE with moderate rain. By 10 a.m. the rain had let up and the winds were 15G30. Of course, up north it was snowing. I'm running, and 45 is perfect, light rain isn't terrible, but I'd rather have the winds from the WSW, that's for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Well a driving nor'easter is one thing, but he said some rain and temps near 50 was much better than anything over 70. He's ran 15 marathons so I assume he knows what he's talking about.Well to each their own. Most runners do not prefer cold soaking rains to run in. I've run 6 marathons and 2 were with temps in the 60's, 1 in light rain but 60 degrees .. One on the low 40's and 1 in cold soaking rain. And 1 windy and 50's..Guess which one sucked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted April 18, 2015 Share Posted April 18, 2015 Well a driving nor'easter is one thing, but he said some rain and temps near 50 was much better than anything over 70. He's ran 15 marathons so I assume he knows what he's talking about. Yeah a soaking rain is bad because you're running through puddles, your feet get wet and blistery, and everything gets soaked and chafe-y. But 45 and light rain isn't too bad, really, although I'd rather have 45 and dry. The winds are a concern. Right now the Euro is quite a bit later with the onset of the rain and especially the winds. Anyone have an opinion one way or another on that? BOX was leaning towards it in the AFD yesterday but didn't mention it today, but they did mention that the rain will be falling through a dry layer so there might be some virga for a while. 42 with a DP of 28 and cloudy would not be bad. I can dream, right? I guess I have to run in whatever comes. See y'all out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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