Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 20" of blue: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 April 28, 1987 redux looks to be off the table without a pig high or any confluence even for those with latitude in the upcoming cool regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I wonder how sugarloaf got its name. Someone should open up molassesbaguette on a nearby mountain to compete. *rimshot* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 April 28, 1987 redux looks to be off the table without a pig high or any confluence even for those with latitude in the upcoming cool regime. Get a deep enough H5 low tracking south of us, and nothing else matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I wonder how sugarloaf got its name. Someone should open up molassesbaguette on a nearby mountain to compete. *rimshot* The name Sugarloaf applies to numerous raised topographic landforms worldwide: mountains, hills, peaks, summits, buttes, ridges, rock formations, bornhardt, inselberg, etc. Landforms resembling the characteristic conical shape of a sugarloaf were often so named.[1] According to the United States Board on Geographic Names, there are over 200 such designations in the United States alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 20" of blue: As low a probability as it is, these solutions actually have a bit more credence than the day 10 GFS hallucinations of last month, which were in conflict with teleconnectors (teleconnector divergence lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 April 28, 1987 redux looks to be off the table without a pig high or any confluence even for those with latitude in the upcoming cool regime. analogs in general are less useful at this time of year. Not saying they have "no use" per se -- just that one should use them with increased over normalcy, degree of incredulity (to put it nicely..) In the higher gradient months of the year... mid Novy through the (depending on year's tempo...) beginning to end of March, they are more useful. The reason is as much philosophy as it is physics ... but has to do with a stronger, organized faster flow everywhere has few resulting constructs that it can result in ...thus, an analog has greater chance of succeeding a 'redux' However, when the wave lengths shorten, and the flow becomes more nebular, with R-wave fragments and so forth that takes place through (depending on year's tempo..>) early June, this more chaotic construct allows for greater probability for permutations ..some unseen before, that can lead to interesting results. Large potential solution sets means its harder to peg an analog. In this case, however, there is an unusually strong convergence of colder signals for the Lake/OV/SE Canada, and NE regions for 7 to 10 days beginning after this blue bird blue weekend decays into that frontal exchange in about 4 or so days... Post that, strong -EPO (unseasonally strong) appears readying to dump an obnoxiously late cold load into Canada. We see this in the bevy of operational, and in large measure ...their ensemble backing, as 850 mb recession in temperatures. It won't be as extreme as those seen in February during our micro ice age... But -10 C may permeate over the vaster aspect of the Canadian Shield, East of the Can Rockies cordillera as we head into D5 ..6/7. This air oozes south over the border, with an active NAO blocking event (like we have not seen over the recent winter, at that...) helping to ensure it gets S of the border... That all sets the stage for a plausible spring snow in my mind, endemic to this particularly season's method for getting the job done (should it work out...) It is still equally plausible to suffer the cold departure period without recouping snow... But, seeing as April and even May snow occurrence along the 40th parallel ... if there were ever a candidate leading signal for that, this is certainly interesting. We'll just have to see how the chips fall - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 As low a probability as it is, these solutions actually have a bit more credence than the day 10 GFS hallucinations of last month, which were in conflict with teleconnectors (teleconnector divergence lol). Agreed! Just wrote about that Forget the details ... if we see white one last gasping dying winter's spitting its last breath at thee, this particularly tele spread heading into next week is putting some extra wind in its respirator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I'd rather not. 95% chance that we end up with days of chilled, 43* puddles, while Steve unearths new stations in the mountains of northwestern ME, and ogles their obs. I would hope he can "unearth" new stations there. With Clayton Lake and Allagash having ceased obs, there's an area of NW Maine the size of CT without a single coop site. (Very few permanent residents, too.) Of course, if one considers Sugarloaf (or the nearby Eustis coop) as "NW Maine", that's another issue. GYX talking 1-2" rain Mon-Tues. Probably will still be enough snow left at elevation to make life interesting near small-medium mountain streams. Larger rviers should be fine south of Aroostook, as the ice has mostly run and much of the snow as well. That much rain might be enough so that the Kennebec provides the annual washing of the waterfront parking lots in Augusta. (If that 1-2" were to verify at 3-4", life becomes more exciting for the mainstem rivers, but that's unlikely.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I would hope he can "unearth" new stations there. With Clayton Lake and Allagash having ceased obs, there's an area of NW Maine the size of CT without a single coop site. (Very few permanent residents, too.) Of course, if one considers Sugarloaf (or the nearby Eustis coop) as "NW Maine", that's another issue. GYX talking 1-2" rain Mon-Tues. Probably will still be enough snow left at elevation to make life interesting near small-medium mountain streams. Larger rviers should be fine south of Aroostook, as the ice has mostly run and much of the snow as well. That much rain might be enough so that the Kennebec provides the annual washing of the waterfront parking lots in Augusta. (If that 1-2" were to verify at 3-4", life becomes more exciting for the mainstem rivers, but that's unlikely.) What's your thinking for snowfall potential on Monday-Tuesday for Western Maine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I would hope he can "unearth" new stations there. With Clayton Lake and Allagash having ceased obs, there's an area of NW Maine the size of CT without a single coop site. (Very few permanent residents, too.) Of course, if one considers Sugarloaf (or the nearby Eustis coop) as "NW Maine", that's another issue. GYX talking 1-2" rain Mon-Tues. Probably will still be enough snow left at elevation to make life interesting near small-medium mountain streams. Larger rviers should be fine south of Aroostook, as the ice has mostly run and much of the snow as well. That much rain might be enough so that the Kennebec provides the annual washing of the waterfront parking lots in Augusta. (If that 1-2" were to verify at 3-4", life becomes more exciting for the mainstem rivers, but that's unlikely.) I hadn't realized that. I knew something was up with Clayton Lake but I don't know why they couldn't resurrect that one. It seems centrally located. Isn't there a camp still there? I know there used be a post office that closed but I thought there was still some activity there. You're right in that they need a station in that part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Agreed! Just wrote about that Forget the details ... if we see white one last gasping dying winter's spitting its last breath at thee, this particularly tele spread heading into next week is putting some extra wind in its respirator. You hit the nail on the head. Catch 22 because teleconnectors now support; however they are relinquishing relevance by the day. Be that as it may, the stronger the signal, the more credence it gains...and this is spring's attempt at a Feb redux with the assist of an NAO. If it were to happen with warning at this time of year, this is how one draws it up in that perverse winter OCD handbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 You hit the nail on the head. Catch 22 because teleconnectors now support; however they are relinquishing relevance by the day. Be that as it may, the stornger the signal, the more credence it gains...and this is spring's attempt at a Feb redux with the assist of an NAO. If it were to happen with warning at this time of year, this is how one draws it up in that perverse winter OCD handbook. Where was this a month ago when my failed KU was supposed to hit, man just classic Kocin stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Ginxy, any 4/82's or 4/87's showing up on the analog data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 The NAO block is pretty awesome that develops....we probably would have gotten annihilated in March if it formed back then with the amount of cold available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Where was this a month ago when my failed KU was supposed to hit, man just classic Kocin stuff Oh sure now we get a -NAO, I mentioned this a month or two back that it would happen and pooch spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 What's your thinking for snowfall potential on Monday-Tuesday for Western Maine? Maybe some paste above 1500' with catspaws to 1000? But it's 4 days out, so that's only a guess. Allagash went away following March 2012 - maybe the 40F AN temps at the equinox melted the instruments. Clayton snowfall obs became unreliable soon after the turn of the century, followed by temps being on and off several years later, and all obs ending as of 3/31/2011. The buildings are still in use as a logging camp, more accurately perhaps as an in-woods garage/depot, as folks generally are going home at night. The departure of International Paper, which established that camp, from that part of Maine a couple decades ago was soon followed by shakier data from the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Ginxy, any 4/82's or 4/87's showing up on the analog data? No but see the April 1961 mid month snow event in the mix , will hone as we get in range but something to watch I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I'm pretty amped up about the potential interior snow later next week. This one might be one for the record books. Mark that down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 meh, Snow is useless at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 meh, Snow is useless at this point Anything under 1' is useless here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 No one is going skiing or mobiling.. It would simply be awesome to have such a big and potentially historic and damaging late April snowstorm. It would / will be fun to track should the signals continue the next few days and it sure as hell beats cold miserable rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Anything under 1' is useless here. It's all useless, I am well past anymore snow, To many projects to get done outdoors and snow would just muck it up at this point Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 It's all useless, I am well past anymore snow, To many projects to get done outdoors and snow would just muck it up at this point Sent from my iPhone Well, you live in Maine....you signed up for weather that is unconducive to outdoor projects in April. I'll take my seasonal record, if I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Well, you live in Maine....you signed up for weather that is averse to outdoor projects in April. I'll take my seasonal records, if I can. Well good luck if you can get it, Not as meaningful to me as others Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Well good luck if you can get it, Not as meaningful to me as others Sent from my iPhone Believe me, I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Believe me, I'm not holding my breath. I'm sure I'm not either Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 I love rare late and early season events. I don't know why, but a 3" car topper can be annoying on March 25th, but on April 25th its cool. You know its going to melt quick and in a day or two be in the 60s again anyway. By far my favorite late season event is April 27-28, 2010... that was a whopper in the upslope towns and across NE VT through N.NH. Awesome map for April 27th... thats late season. To think that this event was even 10 days after today. These are from J.Spin's archives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Hopefully a mod will be along to delete those photos and suspend you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 17, 2015 Share Posted April 17, 2015 Hopefully a mod will be along to delete those photos and suspend you. My wife hopes I get banned as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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