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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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It doesn't mean it "will" snow. And fact of the matter is ...the only "system" to really track as we entere said time frame is a blurry D10 feature at this time.  The 00GGEM has a blue bomb of certain significance for the deep interior, however. 

 

 

So only 8 more days to go and we can pretty much lock this in, huh?

 

;)

 

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GFS ensemble mean is working in cahoots with the operational version - muahahahaha.   First the mean sets up all these crazy winter-signaling teleconnectors for the D10 to D15 range...then, the 12z operational version "conveniently" then gets carte blanche to put off the potential for a cold eastern trough another week.  

 

WRONG.  

 

It's like someone gave the GFS the memo that it can't have it's cake and eat it too in mid April. So it conspires with its ensemble mean to mute the power of the actual Earth going around the sun's imposing will. Once we're all conned into forgetting the time of the calendar year, the GFS gets to have its merrily way in the extended?  

 

No GFS, nice try!  You either do the deed on D9 - 12, or suck it up and admit that summer's coming -

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Pretty sure even this late in April that these teleconnections signals won't lead up to early summer like conditions to end the month. The awesome stretch we are in doesn't look to be sustainable under this kind of teleconnection pressure. hopefully we end up sunnier and drier than this indicates. This look leads me to believe it will be stormy and troughy with below normal temps soon.

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Its like a lot of dry NW flow. BN normal nights and mild sunny days .. Like today. It's not like a week long siege of clouds and rain lol. It won't end up cold for us unless you count a rainy day or something

 

You contradict yourself....you first say the cold is more centered over the plains/GL...this would put us in the prime spot for storm systems on the eastern edge of the longwave trough.

 

You then turn around and say it's all dry NW flow, lol. There's also a difference between 850 temps of like +3 and -5C. :lol:

 

 

 

Summer in April FTL.

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Yeah I was looking at that. Looks very similar to HFD this past October. Temps in the low 40's with rain. That was misery to run in that. Soaking cold hell. Hopefully that look changes

 

Yeah better hope you finish the marathon in under 2.5 hrs..lol. Euro was later so we'll see.

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I'm pretty sure they run at high elevations in Kenya..not sure about exact weather conditions.

 

I think the Great Rift Valley is like 7000ft in Kenya, but they are also a coastal country so they have to have sea level land down next to the Indian Ocean.  Nothing anything higher than what we have in the U.S. I don't think...I mean a good deal of folks live in Colorado at 6,000ft to even 12,000ft.

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Lots of 50's and low 60's next week and thru months end. A bit BN..Not great..but not terrible if the sun is out

10-15 degree anomalies yield temps in the 40's low 50's but glad to see you capitulated and realize that the early summer like conditions you called for for weeks are not in the cards.

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