Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 drunk? Oopssince you have started with your BS already I decided to reply once with the same kind. early summer like. I won't be responding anymore to your hyperbole but hopefully you thoroughly enjoy your 40s to 60s early summer end of month . Talk to you again in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 since you have started with your BS already I decided to reply once with the same kind. early summer like. I won't be responding anymore to your hyperbole but hopefully you thoroughly enjoy your 40s to 60s early summer end of month . Talk to you again in November. WTF.. Why such a mean and nasty response. Sorry winter is over....but all good things must come to an end. Time to move on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 11, 2015 Share Posted April 11, 2015 WTF.. Why such a mean and nasty response. Sorry winter is over....but all good things must come to an end. Time to move onyep see you in Nov or if we get a real cane threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 12, 2015 Share Posted April 12, 2015 Congrats FVE on the euro this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Nice NAO a little late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Nice NAO a little late Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Overall looks fairly normal in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Overall looks fairly normal in the long range. Noyes really nailed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Overall looks fairly normal in the long range.early summer like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Napril isn't look good later next week on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Congrats Tolland on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Napril isn't look good later next week on the models. How's it looking about 2000mi SSW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 How's it looking about 2000mi SSW? Hammocks and Umbrella drinks. I assume somewhere in Mexico? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Hammocks and Umbrella drinks. I assume somewhere in Mexico? Yup. Hondouras/Belize/Mexico. Actually peeked at the GFS and it looked like typical summer stuff. Convection in afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Yup. Hondouras/Belize/Mexico. Actually peeked at the GFS and it looked like typical summer stuff. Convection in afternoon. Have fun man...can't go wrong this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 early summer like? Early summer for anchorage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Congrats Tolland on the GFS.Torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Torch?early summer appeal for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 288?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 So speaking to Kevin's sig: how is 80/60 normal for any season other than summer? I think climo hits 80 here in late June...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 So speaking to Kevin's sig: how is 80/60 normal for any season other than summer? I think climo hits 80 here in late June...lol. He's never let facts get in the way of a good story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 It appears the pattern may try and reload with more amplitude again after about a week, but it's really not very clear what that will mean. In the cold mo, to which March and April are boundary intervals ... the implications would be wintry -- not so sure in the last 10 days of April. ...could merely result in seasonal cool and unsettled. Probably safest to go that route for now. It's all not a very stable outlook, which lends to reducing confidence as to what 'form' the amplitude will come in. Is it going to be a returned interval of -EPO blocking, or is it just a +PNAP expression from a last gasp +PNA ...? either cannot be ironed out/perceived just yet. It matters, because the former would be colder... One aspect I'm playing with is the tempo of succeeding cooler anomalies over warm, being the predominant anomaly type over the last 18 months. It really began in 2013 around December, and relaxed at times, but in that time since... the return/base state seems to not give way to 'hot events' so to speak. It seems if there were ever a season/year to realize a 1987 -esque type of deal, it would 2015. The PNA starts to lose it's correlation-ability as the warm season matures; in fact, CDC doesn't even populate the cross-correlation table during JJA. But the operative variable there is "JJA", meaning I think April is - obviously - to soon to discount that index. Both major agencies (GEFs) indicate the PNA robustly flipping from negative to positive nearing the 20th and beyond.. As painful as it is to admit ... (the back ground anomaly trend + strong PNA phase change + wild card -EPO pulse)/3 = I think an increased chance compared to "normal" years for a temporary seasonal regression ... If those chances pan out, who knows if it is just a period of Prozac weather, or an interesting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 end of month looking uglier and uglier, enjoy next weekglad we have this week to get a warm break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Napes thru month end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 13, 2015 Share Posted April 13, 2015 Man ..it's Napes as far out as the eye can see. Warmth here for good it seems Eric Fisher @ericfisher 2h 2 hours ago You know what...let's just keep this going. Plants start to come alive this week with milder air sticking around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Nothing but mild to warmth and mostly nice thru day 10. Cold pattern end of month phail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Nothing but mild to warmth and mostly nice thru day 10. Cold pattern end of month phaild10-15 looks BN on the EPS. Of course this time of year the key is getting sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Battle royale between the teleconnectors and the forces of seasonal change... In the first regard, the signal is circa January 21st. The latter is ....well, just look at the calendar, particularly post the 20th of April. The multi-day GEFs ensemble derived N. Pacific is signaling a reintroduction of AA phase type, featuring the -WPO emerging and it's subsequent relay into the EPO, also negative beyond D7. Meanwhile, though the PNA relaxes some off it's current robust positive, the NAO is finally ...after months of apparent hiatus, looking rather blocky as we approach the last ten days of the month. In January, I would argue for a better than 50/50 % chance for colder departures and enhancing snow chances ...for pretty much anyone E of the Rockies cordillera and N of the Gulf states. As others have intimated correctly ..this is obviously off-set more and more per day surpassed as we head toward the stronger insolation months of the year. In simpler terms ... the correlation of the index spread as it relates to pattern realization, is becoming less clear in time. Having said that ... I don't believe the lines have been blurred so much that there is less use... Particularly when considering the longer term trends over North America, as discussed yesterday, that really began during the winter of 2013-2014 and has persisted since; that being, blocking in the EPO domain space cycling into +PNA, and then oscillating back. That's been the predominating signal, one that brought record cold to the MW/Lakes last year, kept the summer temperate from the MV-OV-NE regions last year, and assisted our cold and snow anomalies this last winter. I haven't seen enough evidence that the longer term base-line sort of rest state has changed. Because of that, I suggest any deterministic Meteorology that is based upon these current -WPO/-EPO/-NOA, with residual neutral-positive PNA, should get a bit of confidence boost. In simple terms, I think we have to endure an unseasonably chilly dailies weather result at points between the 20th and the first week of May. In that time, I would not be shocked if winter p-type were experienced... particularly in the elevations. However, we remind ourselves that there are more than just a handful of years in the past 40, that have snowed in May, and I can assure you ... a lot of those did not have the foresaid base-line argument working in conjunction with multi-day, multi-domain space converging teleconnectors. It doesn't mean it "will" snow. And fact of the matter is ...the only "system" to really track as we entere said time frame is a blurry D10 feature at this time. The 00GGEM has a blue bomb of certain significance for the deep interior, however. The Euro is less emphatic. Still, that epic battle of seasonal change rages on while all this is happening... There is a 2nd differential that is not handled too well in all this... My experience over the years, the models don't tend to integrate the "acceleration" of seasonal change very well at any given run time. Such that 10 days from now, the entire flow could lose gradient every where, and this whole course work would be moot for how it might pertain to "chilly enough" for obnoxious late spring white. It might just mean we lose any hope of Napril weather. Going to be interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Agree Tip. Although even with 540 thicknesses you can probably get into the low 60s...it's a chill aloft for sure. Throw in any clouds or precip and the dailies will plummet. Definitely some signs it could be troughy in the east, but it's tough to say how cold it will get since sun will do wonders this time of year...unless it's a very anomalous airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 14, 2015 Share Posted April 14, 2015 Agree Tip. Although even with 540 thicknesses you can probably get into the low 60s...it's a chill aloft for sure. Throw in any clouds or precip and the dailies will plummet. Definitely some signs it could be troughy in the east, but it's tough to say how cold it will get since sun will do wonders this time of year...unless it's a very anomalous airmass. I'd like to take every year it snowed post the 15th of April and do a comparative polar field index to this year, and this current 7 to 10 day prog. I'm wondering if there are any propensities there.. It seems that getting a late, late snow like that would benefit from EPO and/or NAO pulses, but spring anomalies are also in the process of disconnecting from the better correlation of mid winter. Hmm. interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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