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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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I'm a fan of HHH but who would complain of 80/50? COCadoodledoo!

 

It's probably more for the banter thread ... but I don't care for torridity.  A short stay to remind us we are human, and at our current state of technology, still subjected to mother nature's "threats".  These can only come from deep blue arctic invasions, fantastic Sonoran dragon breaths, or your Sandy's, Katrina's, and 1978's.  

 

But the impetus is 'short stay'.   If it gets even 86/68 ...falling well shy of heat-wave criteria, but persists for more than a week... That's sack-sticking annoyance.  

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It's probably more for the banter thread ... but I don't care for torridity.  A short stay to remind us we are human, and at our current state of technology, still subjected to mother nature's "threats".  These can only come from deep blue arctic invasions, fantastic Sonoran dragon breaths, or your Sandy's, Katrina's, and 1978's.  

 

But the impetus is 'short stay'.   If it gets even 86/68 ...falling well shy of heat-wave criteria, but persists for more than a week... That's sack-sticking annoyance.

August 1988
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Well your relentless spin during the warm season on 3 degrees of dewpoint or BDL hitting 90 vs 88 makes your winter spin look like a discussion with Paul Kocin.

 

It's understandable. You decided to transform your posting style that way in summer of 2008...just don't expect us to like it.

:lol:

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I'd hardly call next week a summer preview -- though certainly it will come across sensibly like quite a change, sure. 

 

Summer is beyond upper 70s with humble dumble didity....  

 

This 18z GFS, used only to exemplify a point ...does so rather nicely in elucidating the type of pattern we are replacing endless cold bias with...

 

post-904-0-40103600-1428703967_thumb.jpg

 

And that is a transitory pattern... It's like 30 to 40 hours in each interval, give or take. But neither should deliver too far above or below climo to be much different than seasonable departures.

 

Why can't there ever be a sensible impression of things?  why is it always some hugely overblown impression of stuff - Let's be reasonable here.  

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Yeah I doubt NNE is done yet. They can get snow way into late April at elevation. Even SNE at elevation could see flakes again though the chances really diminish after about 4/20-4/22 or so.

I agree with tip that the upcoming week looks pretty mundane. Some warmth not too far above climo and then probably some seasonably cool weather for a day or two where we may radiate well one night.

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Looks like the potential for vintage awful april wx in the d6-10 range.

 

:)    ... It's like PTSD syndrome ...  Collectively, the prospect of April quagmire rings about a fear that rivals apoplexy, and any wayward model run or index that pops off a distance salvo drives the beleaguered soldier heads (the war beaten faithful internet weather forum opines) under their pillows ...muffled cries of 'mommy make it stop...' 

 

Fact of the matter is, April is our rite of passage.  Maybe we would all fair better for our collective trek through the misery that seemingly too often characterizes this gosh forsaken month, if we learned to employ some Stockholm Syndrome.  We need to start identifying with our captor; and upon doing so ... such acceptance brings about slowed heart beats, that pleasant glow when replacing the poundings in ones heads, and even perhaps ...joy.  

 

Or, become rich and leave this region around April 1, and not return until May 15 - a tentative end date at that.  That's actually my dream ...among many less likely to become anything other than the transom of the imagination, and that's to own an Oklahoman weather-station-home that sets inside a retractable see-through, transparent aluminum dome. Every time a bee-lining hook echo curls around the horizon, the structure closes off, leaving protective silence in unabated visibility to the outside world. Just sit there, inside, pop-corn and coke, while 300 mph winds and detritus gliding harmlessly over the fluid dynamical shape of the structure.

 

I was just noticing in the 00z oper. Euro... that D 4 cool shot is attenuating slightly ...about a half a degree C per cycle.. When it was D6, 850 mb temperatures were on the order of -5 C for a brief period in the core. Now, just skims barely -1, and quite literally only for a couple of hours before surging positive.  If we can get by that day, and have that trend continue ...such that it never gets really less than 0 C, that's 0 days below 0 C at 850 mb, right out to the end of the run.  

 

Nice... 

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Yeah I'm def not gonna spend as much time as usual this warm season in the wx threads. I've been doing more outdoor stuff the last year or two and my golf game is recovering because of it too, lol.

 

Debating whether 78F will be the high versus 73F and if we are talking about BDL or ORH or BOS and if 61F dewpoint is muggy but 58F is not will become mind-numbing after about 3 exchanges.

 

Hopefully we get a decent severe setup for two that is worth discussing...otherwise, sports forum and outdoors. :lol:

 

Sounds like you're ready for your debut on the GYX scramble team.

 

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