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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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Monday could be warm, very questionable later on despite pretty orange colors at 18,000ft.

what happened to our 60 and 70s for this weekend?, looks like on that run verbatim 2-3 nice days but man a lot of folks aren't going to like to hear this but after mid month or so the pattern reverts back to the dominant western ridge eastern trough and  it could get real ugly by the 21st. flip to summer , um no

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what happened to our 60 and 70s for this weekend?, looks like on that run verbatim 2-3 nice days but man a lot of folks aren't going to like to hear this but after mid month or so the pattern reverts back to the dominant western ridge eastern trough and  it could get real ugly by the 21st. flip to summer , um no

???

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true enough.  Perhaps I'm alone in this, but the banter in the model thread keeps me away from the site.  I thought it was a great improvement to have a dedicated banter thread, but if it's not used, then the threads become littered with debris.  Maybe most folks like or don't mind the banner.  If that's the case, fine, I'll keep quiet and move on.

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The pattern change and associated flipping of the cold-biased thermal fields of the last... 3 months is still in play. 

 

That doesn't account for nuances associated with position surface highs ... such that periods of onshore flow may offer this or that sensible differences.   It's April, BDs are a fact of life until June 1 ...and then some, and any one of them in a middle or extended range modeling may or may not really take place.

 

I didn't see a lot of on-shore flow contamination in the Euro.  But saw a lot in the GGEM...  Just have to wait on those -

 

I'd say the modeling is better clustered around Sunday and Monday as gem days that really contributing to getting spring further along. After that, I wouldn't spend much time in petty concerns for keeping it cool, or zealous ambitions of warmth, because you are wasting said time. 

 

Still dealing with the cold spring schits through tomorrow night... Friday's dirty warm sector, then Saturday transitions... May be a nice enough day, but seeing a bit of annoying chill with the wind lingering...  But big turn around.  Sunday above 0C 850's and rising, with sear sun and off-shore wind tendencies out of the core of the anticyclone keeping breezes pretty shallow.   Monday does soar and I would suggest if choosing the Euro 70s are an easy feat.   We'll see if said BD can mar the mid-week.  

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GFS won today around here...upton tossed its dry solution last evening, but it's correct.

-

FOR THIS UPDATE HAVE CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON CHANCES OF RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. COOL/DRY AIR DAMMING WEST EXTENDING SW FROM STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND..

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