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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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Someone should start a thread for Tues/Wed threat

 

Responsible shortwave enters British Columbia tonight

 

GGEM/RGEM have a more potent shortwave that digs and tilts the trough more favorably than the flatter outcome on the GFS / Euro

 

We are 72 hours away but this one has my interest for upside potential with larger synoptic-scale impact on SNE.

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The warm day was supposed to be Friday.. Thursday has a sneaky chance at a Napril ...depending on sky cover, as what appears to be a dry warm fropa.. Late high so to speak.  As to Friday, it could still turn out a dirty warm sector, too 

 

This 18z GFS, btw, gets buds swelling in the extended... But it's way way out there in time time time time time time

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I don't like the GFS and Euro both beig south. Tho the Euro was closer to a hit than GFS. 00z is an inmportant model suite. It pretty much has to come north on this model suite.

 

Agree.

Shortwave comes onshore tonight. If we don't see at least a budge on Euro/GFS at 0z towards a better shortwave and sharper trough, it's more likely the Canadian guidance is over-amplified.

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Other difference Canadian vs. Euro/GFS is spacing of prior shortwave. Euro/GFS have that prior shortwave a little closer and that blunts downstream ridging so our relevant shortwave slides harmlessly south of us.

 

Can't say which depiction is more accurate. 0z suite will be telling.

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How many times can you see a white Easter when it falls in April? I can't recall any. In March I can, but not April. It would be historic and put a cherry on top of my Jim Dandy

And then translate that kind of epicness to the coast in E MA, as anomalous as it is in interior CT.

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