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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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Was liking my chances for a couple inches this evening, until 12z GFS did its usual late-in-game thing and cut qpf by half. Maybe 1", maybe a coating. Thursday still has a chance, but 72 hr seems always to "has a chance."

 

Thinking we don't see much of any accumulating snow up this way

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Whinemester said flip to summer, there's a mild spell but there's also backdoors and generally meh climo level temps.looks meh

Well in his defense, a week of normal temps would feel like full blown summer compared to what we have been dealing with the past few months.

Remember when people would say that normal is the new cold a few years ago? Well now normal is the new torch.

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I'd also add that it FLIPs...    

 

No question... The thermal fields are no comparison after ~ Thursday.  What that entails, we'll see... 

 

Can it all change and not come to pass... ?  of course -- but for the time being, the models are for the most part on the same page, and it's heavily backed by the teleconnections.  If anything, it may end up warmer.   

 

I know that seems hard to envision, but it looks to me like we're about to enter a transitional pattern that goes from neutral to above, as opposed to these unending below, transitioning right back to below. I wouldn't call that summer, no, and I agree with Will, that's entering a whole new sensible ballpark. 

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I'd also add that it FLIPs...

No question... The thermal fields are no comparison after ~ Thursday. What that entails, we'll see...

Can it all change and not come to pass... ? of course -- but for the time being, the models are for the most part on the same page, and it's heavily backed by the teleconnections. If anything, it may end up warmer.

I know that seems hard to envision, but it looks to me like we're about to enter a transitional pattern that goes from neutral to above, as opposed to these unending below. I wouldn't call that summer, no.

he said Flips to summer
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he said Flips to summer

 

I'd call it late winter to late spring...perhaps inside of a week..  

 

But it's a dopey petty discussion, and I don't want to get into it.   

 

I'll just exit by saying that we could put up some modestly positive depatures by the middle of next week if the tele's are right.  Time will tell -

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Get the AC units into windows I think for late month and May. Looks toasty and dewy

it's funny when you act like two face from Batman, snowing in one thread and oddly telling people to put ACs in in April in another. Especially when no model indicates anything remotely summer like. What's the basis of this?
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it's funny when you act like two face from Batman, snowing in one thread and oddly telling people to put ACs in in April in another. Especially when no model indicates anything remotely summer like. What's the basis of this?

I just see lots of signs of a quick turn to early summer Wx late month. Massive changes underway even now. I not allowed to express ideas based on models and pattern recognition?
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what do you use for modeling

 

I've been using weather.cod a great deal the past few years.  IMO it's one of the most user-friendly modeling sites out there.  The fact that you can view a regional sector and there is minimal effort to change products and it's so easy to scroll through the various hours.  

 

However, I have found myself to actually get quite lazy the past year plus with just looking at certain products and not looking at the picture as a whole and I think that has lead to a huge decline in my forecasting the past few years.  

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