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Model Discussion for April

Quincy

By Quincy,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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Looks like a nice day for sure. Maybe clouds in the morning with fropa, but a day full of disc golf for anyone living in Ayer, MA. Many times our nicest days are post fropa.

You can even picture folks with pony tails around Rt poop long tossing frisbees in shorts , hiking boots and no shirts. With a pony tail tan line draped down from napes toward mid back
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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Annnnyway.... ( :lol: ) ...  definitely a huge paradigms shift in the thermal intervals across all of North America, just around the corner... 

 

Have to get through a couple/three days of drab snow/rain/cat paws misery...but when it breaks, it could do so with rapidity. Most have seen, the Euro notion of going from the late winter to late spring in one 24 hour period at week's end.  

 

The teleconnectors are essentially unchanged in their collective outlook for a generalized warmer regime S of ~ the 60th parallel, so seeing all these operational models latching on brings a component of confidence.   

 

It's interesting in a subtle way.. Namely, if this teleconnector spread were to evolve in a given January, we'd be eyeing a significant "January Thaw" period of time/plausibility. But, having this layout out emerge going forward approaching the ides of April, we also add warming sun/insolation to daily mixing and modulation of in situ air masses... Such that when cold yields, that all allows for those big spring turn arounds that can happen -- that's essentially why they can differentiate so largely across shorter lengths of time.  To elucidate this ... take May of 2005.  45/39 with three distinct elevated Nor-easter events couched in a three week period of cold, NW Alantic puke became so unrelenting/unending that stories were written about the old days when a season known as summer used to happen...  But, right around that first week of June, the flip... I recall temp and dew soaring to some 90/72 within days of all that misery.  

 

Which of course offered a misery in its own rite... Not looking at anything close to that here...but, > 0 C 850's cover the entire domain of the conus and southern Canada, with occasional runs to 12C or higher is going to be hugely sensibly different than anything we've experienced since last autumn.  In fact, much of the cold collapse has taken place by as near as Thursday, but that polar high happenstance timed (what's new) a delay at getting the schits out of New England...  Ode to spring in this quagmire of an annoying geography right there -

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

We had a legit snowstorm on Easter in 1996...heavy snow started falling mid afternoon.

Hard for me to top Easter Sunday 1970, March 29, when we had 11" of mid-20s pow in NNJ. Even NYC scored 4" from that one.

@BarryWBZ: 33 Yrs. Ago Tonight, I Was Here At WBZ 4Casting A Blizzard! 10-20" Of Powdery Snow In The Region. Boston 13.2", Record Low 16 Deg. 4/7/82!

Absolutely the best positive bust I will ever experience. Forecast from CAR late evening on the 6th was for 20s, windy, flurries, with the storm missing wide right. They got 26.3", which at the time was their top 24-hr snowfall. "Only" 17" at my Ft.Kent home, not that we could get an accurate measurement of stuff going by at 50+ mph. Temps were 10-15F for most of the storm.  It remains the only storm I can recall which had major impact on CHI, NYC, and CAR.  Hard enough to get 2 of those 3 in a single event.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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You can even picture folks with pony tails around Rt poop long tossing frisbees in shorts , hiking boots and no shirts. With a pony tail tan line draped down from napes toward mid back

I don't think there is a soul left in search of snow at this point.

My page turned this weekend, as it became apparent that all of the "chances" this week were what I had suspected all along.....fantasy BS.

Baseball time....

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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That sucks, Ray -   At least it's sunny and approaching "napril" out side.

 

Hey, I agree with you on B.  I am not speaking about any particular user ( I just skimmed to get caught up so don't know all the names of who said what).   I think there's a base-line opposition toward him, in this and perhaps other weather-centric forums, that has more truthful roots in that folks just don't like him ... kind of a pettiness out there where people are less inclined to credit any source that annoys them; that has to apply first.

 

There's that, ...and, the actual intimations he made at the time were diametrically opposed to the desires of the majority SNE sub-forum user.  

 

Combining those two factors is just as judgement clouding, as would be any disheartening reality that he was essentially right.  Some may say right for the wrong reasons ...lucky... whatever.  But to me that's all bargaining.  I remember when he coined his statements and heard them, and it didn't "shine" to me like he was pulling antithetical shock-jock out of a arse.  The vibe was that "to him" the pattern was breaking. And he's a Met! Just for the same reason's I was impugned yesterday for merely asking if people could be assessing cold side QPF in error, shouldn't that same credit be extended both ways? One has to be fair and assume that the man has an idea how to read things.

 

By the way, Mr Leonard told me something similar around that time in an email ;)

Thanks.

Glad I'm not alone on that.

I'll take Harvey Leonard on my team, any day.

 

I guess Harv's emotions are "clouding the bigger picture", as well.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I don't think there is a soul left in search of snow at this point.

My page turned this weekend, as it became apparent that all of the "chances" this week were what I had suspected all along.....fantasy BS.

Baseball time....

Theres plenty of folks here still hoping for some more snow. I thoroughly enjoyed the inch of snow that fell yesterday. Was a fun event ESP since it was Easter and it's April and it added to seasonal total. Many folks still feel the same way. Enjoy your snow Wednesday. It will be your last till autumn
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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Theres plenty of folks here still hoping for some more snow. I thoroughly enjoyed the inch of snow that fell yesterday. Was a fun event ESP since it was Easter and it's April and it added to seasonal total. Many folks still feel the same way. Enjoy your snow Wednesday. It will be your last till autumn

Well, there's plenty that have checked out.

 

I'm sure Wednesday will be inconsequential, so whatev.

Glad you got the inch, and not me.

Enjoy.

 

I'm done with the nuisance $hit.

 

Take Wednesday's crap, too.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Theres plenty of folks here still hoping for some more snow. I thoroughly enjoyed the inch of snow that fell yesterday. Was a fun event ESP since it was Easter and it's April and it added to seasonal total. Many folks still feel the same way. Enjoy your snow Wednesday. It will be your last till autumn

I'm one of the biggest snow weenies around yet I disdain april snow unless it's big. An inch doesn't cut it for me....would rather nice weather. I'm much more excited about a possible spectacular Saturday upcoming.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

Well, there's plenty that have checked out.

 

I'm sure Wednesday will be inconsequential, so whatev.

Glad you got the inch, and not me.

Enjoy.

 

I'm done with the nuisance $hit.

 

Take Wednesday's crap, too.

at this point, real snow chances are relegated to places with 1000 ft of elevation or better.   Coastal plain is done.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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give me a birch and pine bending 4 inches+ paste bomb or get this nuisance crap outta here. Mixed snow and rain yesterday did nothing but ruin the kids chances to play outside and do additional Easter egg hunts for the holiday at my sisters house in Windsor.

Kids here had a blast hunting for eggs in deep winter conditions

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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I honestly think deep winter conditions would have been better the ground was wet and muddy and it was raining as well as snowing with only a few crusty snow patches in the corners

Good news, Easter is 3/27 next year, so there's a chance of that if we're cold again next March

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