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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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Yea, it's over. What a clinic in how to not snow since Feb 15th. Tale of two winters....the great one lasting 3 weeks.

Yeah, I'm glad I'm not the only one with the same thought process on this winter. Maybe we'll get it right next year ideally with at least 1 warning level snow each month from Dec. - March, a handful of moderate storms, and some cold in between to keep the pack alive. Have a happy Easter Ray.

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We've been through this already. C'mon. Hey the 384 hr GFS got a storm right! Give credit where credit is due! :facepalm:

Sorry dude, just drop it. We disagree. Dumb analogy because there is a human element to forecasting. Probably not wise to say on air, but he was right. History tells us, as well as common sense, that things are probably about to really grind to a hault after a ferocious three weeks ending in the latter part of winter. Will even referenced most past seasons that were exotically prolific over relatively short windows usually go out with a whimper. Only exception was the year that still features the record seasonal tally for many. Couple that with an abatement of the western pig ridge in min Feb, and it was a viable call, and as it turned out, an absolutely correct one.

What he did was to employ the analog method of fotecasting in conjunction with some gut instinct. You were waiting for a stationary Bermuda high to call it???? Good luck in a season of this ilk, but hedging toward a dearth of production down the home stretch for most was a good call. Period. Not debatable. Sorry.

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Agree with Scott. Ray's emotions clouding the bigger picture.

Sucks you got skunked but a chunk of the area has had decent snow since then. Calling for no more 100" in 3 weeks? Sure. Nobody would forecast that again.

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Agree with Scott. Ray's emotions clouding the bigger picture.

Sucks you got skunked but a chunk of the area has had decent snow since then. Calling for no more 100" in 3 weeks? Sure. Nobody would forecast that again.

The majority of the viewing area didn't.

 

Probably the southern third of sne, most of which isn't even his viewing area.

 

The areas that did the best in the epic three weeks did not get in on the vast majority of the March shannanigans.

This is logical unless you expected a 140" finish in most of the Boston area??

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We could have easily gotten half the snow we got this season in that pattern, but guess what? We got over 100", which makes my seasonal pretty damn good.

A few bad breaks in that three weeks, which would have been  normal, and I would have been overdone.

 

But that didn't happen, did it??

 

It's all about what happens.

And from Boston's immediate southern suburbs points north and west, not much of anything did.

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1) The majority of the Boston forecast area does not.

2)The area immediately south of the pike was skunked....you had to travel south a little bit beyond the pike.

Aside from Springfield, Ma..which according to one poster hasn't seen any snowfall in over 30 years..everyone from about ORH south had a normal or above average snowfall in March ..from north to south

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Happy Easter all!

Can we focus on the model discussion here?

I'm sick of reading the debate about Bouchard-gate.

Still interested in mid week. Esp north of pike. Looks best for CNE and NNE right now but still a ways to go on this delicate setup.

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Aside from Springfield, Ma..which according to one poster hasn't seen any snowfall in over 30 years..everyone from about ORH south had a normal or above average snowfall in March ..from north to south

:lol:

 

It was below average from mid Feb on, and most came piece meal.......which is important because he postulated that the big nor' easters were done.

 

Feel free to move or delete all of this so we can discuss the impending 42* drizzle and fog.

Agreed.

Back OT....

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Happy Easter, everyone.....had to bury my aunt yesterday, but the show must go on.

 

All debates aside, enjoy the holiday, guys.

 

That sucks, Ray -   At least it's sunny and approaching "napril" out side.

 

Hey, I agree with you on B.  I am not speaking about any particular user ( I just skimmed to get caught up so don't know all the names of who said what).   I think there's a base-line opposition toward him, in this and perhaps other weather-centric forums, that has more truthful roots in that folks just don't like him ... kind of a pettiness out there where people are less inclined to credit any source that annoys them; that has to apply first.

 

There's that, ...and, the actual intimations he made at the time were diametrically opposed to the desires of the majority SNE sub-forum user.  

 

Combining those two factors is just as judgement clouding, as would be any disheartening reality that he was essentially right.  Some may say right for the wrong reasons ...lucky... whatever.  But to me that's all bargaining.  I remember when he coined his statements and heard them, and it didn't "shine" to me like he was pulling antithetical shock-jock out of a arse.  The vibe was that "to him" the pattern was breaking. And he's a Met! Just for the same reason's I was impugned yesterday for merely asking if people could be assessing cold side QPF in error, shouldn't that same credit be extended both ways? One has to be fair and assume that the man has an idea how to read things.

 

By the way, Mr Leonard told me something similar around that time in an email ;)

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Sorry dude, just drop it. We disagree. Dumb analogy because there is a human element to forecasting. Probably not wise to say on air, but he was right. History tells us, as well as common sense, that things are probably about to really grind to a hault after a ferocious three weeks ending in the latter part of winter. Will even referenced most past seasons that were exotically prolific over relatively short windows usually go out with a whimper. Only exception was the year that still features the record seasonal tally for many. Couple that with an abatement of the western pig ridge in min Feb, and it was a viable call, and as it turned out, an absolutely correct one.

What he did was to employ the analog method of fotecasting in conjunction with some gut instinct. You were waiting for a stationary Bermuda high to call it???? Good luck in a season of this ilk, but hedging toward a dearth of production down the home stretch for most was a good call. Period. Not debatable. Sorry.

I'll just say one last thing. We all agreed the three week stretch of awesomeness was over. I would never say in mid Feb we are done with nor'easters in SNE. That's all.

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It's becoming more clear that warm front/stationary front, that aligns from the eastern Lakes to NE, will have a couple of distinct, albeit weak, waves along it to perhaps enhance precipitation as we go from Tuesday through early Thursday... 

 

I only buy the GFS solution through that period of time, as it's in reasonable agreement with the other guidance types/their blend (which still ...the latter being the better fit for the teleconnectors/mass-field layout beyond D4).  Beyond that, the GFS seems to suffer spring stochastics that enhance any given model's longer terms absurdities... 

 

The two wave scenario appears to offer chilly rains for SNE, with CNE mixing and snows in the summits during the first period of enhancing... Then a lull prior to the second weak wave rippling out of the eastern Lakes.  The GFS's recent runs (00z and 06z) do something interesting.  They start to strengthen deeper layer trough over the MV/western Lakes longitude nearing 90 hours, and that begins damping the 2nd wave because it immediately exerts a bit of S/W ridging into where the weak 2nd wave is trying to move ...roughly NYS.  That technical complexity makes it problematic, because the column has cooled enough to offer some snow into SNE between 90 and 100 hours, but a plume of light to moderate QPF over NYS around 90 hours...loses support and disappears just as it's entering the area.  There is a race there of sorts ... as to whether the 2nd wave can hold it together enough to bring more than category 1 QPF.  

 

But that's the details of the GFS.  The other models have differing details... The NAVGEM doesn't cool the column enough regardless over a single versus two pulsed light event.  The GGEM ends the QPF right as the cold arrives, similar to what was discussed yesterday, and the Euro as others have noted, tries to get some light snow in before it all ends... 

 

Whatever happens, this week may be it until next autumn (obviously barring a fluke, which doesn't and shouldn't count in a generalized conception...).  Now, all guidance except the GFS has joined the Euro in showing a grand scaled, total continental withdrawal/ moderation of erstwhile cold tropospheric thickness' beyond D5... -20 isotherm contracts to and above the arctic circle, and in fact, modestly positive 850 temperatures are circumvallate over a massive area of midriff Canada and points S, with burgeoning regions at or exceeding 10C over the CONUS.   This is perhaps this particular season/year's big seasonal flip period, and it has a lot of teleconnector support frankly.  Of the main mass field players ... only the PNA offers cooling, and it's dubious at best. The index starts out very negative, and recovers to essential neutral by the end of week 2... Granted, that's a recover of 2 SD, which is a lot for such a large domain space...but the entire arc of the NP is AB, and the NAO is also positive; I have my doubts that PNA's signal would dominate considering that, and that the PNA's correlation on the flow is already begun it's seasonal decline.  

 

Maybe we can last hurrah Logan's seasonal total up a notch or two through Thursday... otherwise, heh... might be time to set expectations accordingly.. 

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Im curious how this week plays out...models are snowy tomorrow afternoon and then again Wednesday.

Quite the boundary tomorrow as the 2m max temps I'm seeing on the GFS and GGEM have 33-35F up here with snow, while it's 55-60F at ALB and BDL.

Yeah that boundary means business. That's gonna nose some colder air down and wedge it into the higher terrain of MA and SNH too. That's why I've been saying to keep an eye out for that down into MA despite some celebrating Napril and dreaming of time warps to June.

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