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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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Yup. Regardless of the patten and how great it was, Bouchard was right. I got croaked for saying I expected a 2013 comeback and it was much bigger, and for drawing an analogy to a 2011 like quiesecence from mid Feb on, and it's been worse. A- on the season.

Yeah Bouchard was right in the end, even if there was some luck involved. I'll have to give it an A here still though

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Yeah Bouchard was right in the end, even if there was some luck involved. I'll have to give it an A here still though

There is always luck involved in any call since the atmosphere is utter chaos. You have to incorporate your "gut" into it. I agree it was an A on the south shore.....but imo a season can't get an A plus with such a protracted and miserable cold, dry, rainy back 7 weeks.
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Yup. Regardless of the patten and how great it was, Bouchard was right. I got croaked for saying I expected a 2013 comeback and it was much bigger, and for drawing an analogy to a 2011 like quiesecence from mid Feb on, and it's been worse. A- on the season.

We've been through this already. C'mon. Hey the 384 hr GFS got a storm right! Give credit where credit is due! :facepalm:

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Sounds like a wild next 12-18 hours on tap. Thunderstorms, wind, graupel, snow..Spring

VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING MAINLY ACROSS N CT/RI/SE MA /ON ORDER OF 9.5 TO 10.5C/KM
FROM ABOUT 950 TO 800 HPA AND AROUND 7C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS/. NAM
MOST ROBUST WITH THE INSTABILITY...WITH TT/S IN THE MID AND EVEN
UPPER 50S AND TQ/S AROUND 20. GFS ALSO HAS THIS THOUGH NOT AS
HIGH. WITH SUCH SHARP LAPSE RATES AND MILDER TEMPS S OF WHERE THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL...COULD SEE SPOTTY ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP. HAVE MENTIONED ISOLD THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF N CENTRAL CT/RI/S COASTAL MA. WITH THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT AND IF ANY STEADIER PRECIP MOVES ACROSS...COULD SEE BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME GRAUPEL /SOFT HAIL OR SNOW
PELLETS/ MAY FALL.

FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AROUND THE MASS PIKE BY EVENING...SO BEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS S OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...NEAR AND N OF THE
FRONT...EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW COLDER AIR TO MIX DOWN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AS WELL AS THE
WORCESTER HILLS. SO...COULD SEE PRECIP MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
LATE IN THE DAY. COULD ALSO SEE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STEADIER PRECIP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

EXPECT TEMPS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
/OCCURRING EARLY BEFORE PRECIP MOVES IN/ TO AROUND 50 ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

TONIGHT...
PRECIP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. CONTINUED
MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY LINGERS.
WILL ALSO SEE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS FALLING. TEMPS ARE
BORDERLINE...BUT COULD SEE MIXED PRECIP MOVE S INTO INTERIOR SE
MA/N RI/N CT AFTER MIDNIGHT. TOTAL QPF EXPECTED IS ONLY 0.1 TO 0.2
INCHES TOTAL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AND...WITH TEMPS
ONLY FALL BACK TO THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S FOR MOST OTHER AREAS...WILL BE TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW EXCEPT MAYBE WELL INLAND ACROSS GRASSY
SURFACES.

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What did this Bouchard character say?

 

He said no more nor'easters based off a GFS run. Meanwhile, he said the V-Day storm was out to sea (oopsie) and the Cape has had like 20+" since no more nor'easters. The same guy who said the only thing we had to worry about during the Dec 2008 icestorm was black ice. So now, after emotions and frustrations take over...some people have the need to give someone like that who makes reckless calls "props." 

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He said no more nor'easters based off a GFS run. Meanwhile, he said the V-Day storm was out to sea (oopsie) and the Cape has had like 20+" since no more nor'easters. The same guy who said the only thing we had to worry about during the Dec 2008 icestorm was black ice. So now, after emotions and frustrations take over...some people have the need to give someone like that who makes reckless calls "props." 

 

Yeah, its all relative to a given location I guess.  I mean I could say that someone who called for way above normal snowfall for all of the northeast was wrong because that's not true up here, haha.  I guess it depends on the context...if he was saying, well we are done with 100" in 3 weeks type storms, then he was right.  If it was we are done with snow all together, then its wrong haha.

 

But in general yeah, I have a hard time giving credit to huge blanket statements way out in time that no one could ever really know.  Its like when at Day 7 all the models show a cutter and DIT calls for a SNE snowstorm, just because that's what he does.  We don't give him credit for throwing that dart in the right direction, lol.

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Yeah, its all relative to a given location I guess.  I mean I could say that someone who called for way above normal snowfall for all of the northeast was wrong because that's not true up here, haha.  I guess it depends on the context...if he was saying, well we are done with 100" in 3 weeks type storms, then he was right.  If it was we are done with snow all together, then its wrong haha.

 

But in general yeah, I have a hard time giving credit to huge blanket statements way out in time that no one could ever really know.  Its like when at Day 7 all the models show a cutter and DIT calls for a SNE snowstorm, just because that's what he does.  We don't give him credit for throwing that dart in the right direction, lol.

 

Hey look with all due respect..he's a big market OCM and had a good career. But for me being a met and knowing how things work, I have trouble agreeing with some of those reckless calls. We all agreed that crazy period was over.

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He most likely meant we were done with nor easters in the short term "the pipeline". He put that statement out for ratings in all likely hood , but I'm sure he didn't mean no more snow for the entire winter but left it purposefully amgibguous in case the outcome was realized. We all know that's petes style, he's done this in the past. In this case, he'll look like a god to 99% of his viewers and to network management which is all I'm saying.

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Yeah, its all relative to a given location I guess.  I mean I could say that someone who called for way above normal snowfall for all of the northeast was wrong because that's not true up here, haha.  I guess it depends on the context...if he was saying, well we are done with 100" in 3 weeks type storms, then he was right.  If it was we are done with snow all together, then its wrong haha.

 

But in general yeah, I have a hard time giving credit to huge blanket statements way out in time that no one could ever really know.  Its like when at Day 7 all the models show a cutter and DIT calls for a SNE snowstorm, just because that's what he does.  We don't give him credit for throwing that dart in the right direction, lol.

We do

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