Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,614
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

Model Discussion for April


Quincy

Recommended Posts

Right, nobody has control of the weather. Unfortunately we are not in a warm pattern for the time being so we take what we can get.  I could care less what happens in my backyard at this point, but it doesn't mean I don't find the weather intriguing in nearby areas.

 

I mentioned this before but I'll paraphrase ... a couple cycles of the Euro in a row have really pulled deeper continental could out of the Canadian shield in the D6- 10.  Now...add this 12z run, too, so three...

 

For those holding out for warmth, you may only need this week of patience -- not withstanding how warm it would get by day. But ... this recent run, too, pulls deeper Canadian shield cold way back into the arctic domain.  +0C 850s encompass everywhere S of the 55th parallel by as near as D6...leaving only rapidly filling 0C packets south of that latitude.   

 

That's D6... Friday... I think what these last three cycles offer is lawn greening, bud swell, tulip pushing, pleasant evening walk weather for a change; and more than a fleeting 6 hours worth at that.   We'll see if it holds... But the tele's at CDC really would support that, actually.  All majors in warm phases/neutral... I think the pattern over the U.S. could flip that direction and so this Euro idea has legs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

People can be dismayed by undesirable outcomes. I don't know that has to mean they are about to off themselves. I don't get that. People have no control over the fate of their local sports teams, yet it sucks when they lose. If you don't get that, then the issue is your's.

 

 

Where are you getting that ...?

 

I'm talking about people letting the weather get the better of their mentality...  So yeah, I don't know that has to mean that, either.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At some point it will warm up. Been hearing about warmth for 5 weeks now, 1 day so far. Eventually

 

Ha ha... You mean how it's warmed up over the last 5 weeks - 

 

The weekly mean from back then compared to now ...is not even comparable.  It's warmer...  

 

As we said back then ...whether this is you, or not aside, but wanton detractors can't seem to get through into their craniums, is that spring is not going to be fast venture this year.  So far, that warm up, and the snow melt and all...have been right on cue. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ha ha... You mean how it's warmed up over the last 5 weeks -

The weekly mean from back then compared to now ...is not even comparable. It's warmer...

As we said back then ...whether this is you, or not aside, but wanton detractors can't seem to get through into their craniums, is that spring is not going to be fast venture this year. So far, that warm up, and the snow melt and all...have been right on cue.

that's not what I mean, record March cold and a cold start to April while some talked about spring warmth. Of course it's warmer than Winter, duh.First time our lake is iced over opening fishing day, ever. Right on schedule?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

that's not what I mean, record March cold and a cold start to April while some talked about spring warmth. Of course it's warmer than Winter, duh.First time our lake is iced over opening fishing day, ever. Right on schedule?

 

I see what ur saying... but you have to look at this stuff relative to seasonal trends... not absolute.  

 

I mean,  ha, it's a tedious dumb conversation because I'm merely bored at the moment .. .but, the background canvas being cold, and managing to warm through that, despite of that, is a symptom of spring's onset.  

 

Absolutely it is... If this advection (today) took place in mid Feb, we'd be a heluva lot colder.  

 

So yeah, I'd say relative to all ...it's on schedule. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I see what ur saying... but you have to look at this stuff relative to seasonal trends... not absolute.

I mean, ha, it's a tedious dumb conversation because I'm merely bored at the moment .. .but, the background canvas being cold, and managing to warm through that, despite of that, is a symptom of spring's onset.

Absolutely it is... If this advection (today) took place in mid Feb, we'd be a heluva lot colder.

So yeah, I'd say relative to all ...it's on schedule.

One would hope on April3rd it's warmer on down slope with the equivalent sun angle of Sept 9. Original point being we have yet been enamored with spring warmth sans one day
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One would hope on April3rd it's warmer on down slope with the equivalent sun angle of Sept 9. Original point being we have yet been enamored with spring warmth sans one day

 

 

Though I stand by my guns on that ... one thing I will agree upon is that we've yet to have a "trigger" day(s).  But I think these last 3 cycles of the Euro are trying to do just that.  So if by "appeal" -- if that is what folks are awaiting ... -- that time may be just down the block.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That still doesn't mean it's snowing... That .1 or .3 is leading up to that interval and the QPF from what I am looking at, appears (in that model) to be ending as the cold arrives.

I think we should stick to GGEM type solutions for any snow chances... That one looks better.

lol not my first time looking at a model. Its a snow column prior to the time period, and a snow column at the end of the period, and precipitation falls between the two snapshots that show a snow column.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why? Cool windy day....time taken doing something more efficiently delegated.

I thoroughly enjoy working outside with my hands. I got up at 6 on my day off, started working on spring clean up immediately, raked, stacked, cleaned, vacuumed the truck washed it and dried it. I just love being outside doing something. Not understanding the aversion to manual labor.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That still doesn't mean it's snowing... That .1 or .3 is leading up to that interval and the QPF from what I am looking at, appears (in that model) to be ending as the cold arrives.

I think we should stick to GGEM type solutions for any snow chances... That one looks better.

Yes, I'm sure Scott knows how to read that QPF falls in the previous hours lesson up to it.

It is still snow in those areas he mentioned verbatim on the ecmwf.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...