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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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Still a burst of snow on the EC Wednesday evening into SNE.  

 

That's a very strong HP sending anomalous cold south into New England.  Not everyone may see wintry weather, but an interesting scenario setting up in CNE and NNE on down to ORH perhaps.

Seeing will be believing, at least given the past 8 weeks. The system out 100 hr always looks better than the one close at hand. (Or than the one just completed, which produced a smattering of flakes and now some wind.)

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Still a burst of snow on the EC Wednesday evening into SNE.  

 

That's a very strong HP sending anomalous cold south into New England.  Not everyone may see wintry weather, but an interesting scenario setting up in CNE and NNE on down to ORH perhaps.

Seeing will be believing, at least given the past 8 weeks. The system out 100 hr always looks better than the one close at hand. (Or than the one just completed, which produced a smattering of flakes and now some wind.)

 

 

Well depends on your location. I certainly wouldn't throw out definitive statements for wintry weather, but there could be a narrow area that sees a plethora of precip types.

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There are products out there that outright indicate/demo snow falling out of the Euro solution for Wed?

 

 

Not to be argumentative, but those freebie charts wouldn't suggest that at all. Those have a 850s above 0C, and deep layer moisture rapidly drying concurrent with 0c isotherm moving S of the area. I.e., typical chilly spring mist/light rain going to clearing... 

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Lol. Our hell on Earth payback for best winter ever has begun. Cold, wet , naperless

 

Meh, surprising napril out there today... I have 48 F in more warming sun than cooling cloud intervals.  Not bad at all!  

Wouldn't shock me if tomorrow's type of sky and lightening wind typically busts MOS a tick or two too cool, also. 

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There are products out there that outright indicate/demo snow falling out of the Euro solution for Wed?

 

 

Not to be argumentative, but those freebie charts wouldn't suggest that at all. Those have a 850s above 0C, and deep layer moisture rapidly drying concurrent with 0c isotherm moving S of the area. I.e., typical chilly spring mist/light rain going to clearing... 

925-850 temps sufficiently below 0C with saturation at 700mb at 00z Thursday. 

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925-850 temps sufficiently below 0C with saturation at 700mb at 00z Thursday. 

 

 

Didn't answer the question  :)  are there actually product showing the Euro outputing snow.  Because honestly, that sounds like an interpretation... and mine doesn't agree. 

 

700mb saturation can be OVC ...doesn't mean anything coming down, and it's so marginal at the surface I think that's little pushing it with snow there.  

 

But, we'll see - 

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Didn't answer the question   :)  are there actually product showing the Euro outputing snow.  Because honestly, that sounds like an interpretation... and mine doesn't agree. 

 

700mb saturation can be OVC ...doesn't mean anything coming down, and it's so marginal at the surface I think that's little pushing it with snow there.  

 

But, we'll see - 

 

Well there is QPF during this time with temps in the low to mid 30s even as modeled. I'm sure the 1k folk would be snowing. 

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Didn't answer the question :) are there actually product showing the Euro outputing snow. Because honestly, that sounds like an interpretation... and mine doesn't agree.

700mb saturation can be OVC ...doesn't mean anything coming down, and it's so marginal at the surface I think that's little pushing it with snow there.

But, we'll see -

Yes. Hour 108 and 114 are actually showing 0.1-0.3" with a snow column, H85s are down to -5C in northern Mass with -1C down to IJD. 925s are cold as well.

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Well there is QPF during this time with temps in the low to mid 30s even as modeled. I'm sure the 1k folk would be snowing. 

 

Also folks, (not you per se..) but modeled QPF is always ending at the frame...

 

Suppose a 36 hour chart has .5", that' what fell in the interval leading up to hour 36.  If the atmosphere is marginal at that 36 hour, and there is .5" that doesn't mean or even favor snowing; particularly if the 42 hour frame is dry.  For all we know, the action stopped on or just prior to the 36 hour.  

 

This gets folks into trouble often.  I remember in Freshmen FAST we had this as a trick question on an exam.  

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Yes. Hour 108 and 114 are actually showing 0.1-0.3" with a snow column, H85s are down to -5C in northern Mass with -1C down to IJD. 925s are cold as well.

 

That still doesn't mean it's snowing... That .1 or .3 is leading up to that interval and the QPF from what I am looking at, appears (in that model) to be ending as the cold arrives. 

 

I think we should stick to GGEM type solutions for any snow chances... That one looks better.  

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That still doesn't mean it's snowing... That .1 or .3 is leading up to that interval and the QPF from what I am looking at, appears (in that model) to be ending as the cold arrives. 

 

I think we should stick to GGEM type solutions for any snow chances... That one looks better.  

 

I can see it every 3 hrs too. It's definitely snow verbatim..especially near and north of the pike at 1K starting near 18z..likely into NE MA too. It then transitions to the south by evening.

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I can see it every 3 hrs too. It's definitely snow verbatim..especially near and north of the pike at 1K starting near 18z..likely into NE MA too. It then transitions to the south by evening.

 

Ah, okay - well this was what I originally asked for - 

 

Not to sound like a debbie, but ... my experience in those scenarios is that it ends up drier in the column do to CAA/ lower DP advecting below the cloud base. .. more of a losing race when it comes time to verify.  Probably would take elevation - sure.

 

I have a feeling we see that get less in time.  

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Ah, okay - well this was what I originally asked for - 

 

Not to sound like a debbie, but ... my experience in those scenarios is that it ends up drier in the column do to CAA/ lower DP advecting below the cloud base. .. more of a losing race when it comes time to verify.  Probably would take elevation - sure.

 

I have a feeling we see that get less in time.  

 

Yeah like I said...if you asked me..I would say it's a tricky setup. But they have been hinting at this as a weak s/w moves through.

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Not sure what people expect in April. :lol:  Any instance for even an inch or two this late is pretty good event. There might even be prolonged IP or ZR in the higher elevations too with a narrow stripe of decent snows..probably most likely just over the border in NH VT ME etc.

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Not sure what people expect in April. :lol:  Any instance for even an inch or two this late is pretty good event. There might even be prolonged IP or ZR in the higher elevations too with a narrow stripe of decent snows..probably most likely just over the border in NH VT ME etc.

 

I think back to 2004 or maybe it was 2006, when we had snow pack and snow events until the middle of the month.  I remember shoveling on like April 4, and watching medium aggregates pouring down around the neighbor's front door light, and thinking how it just seemed so easy to snow.  

 

Other years, we're in the 70s by April 1...   

 

It's the spice of life around here.  

 

I think at the end of the day I conclude the same way, and that is ... people really need to learn to disconnect their sense of happiness/joy/life-worth-it-ness from something they have no control over. You can't be "dependent" upon whether it snows or not...or gets warm for that matter, on what the weather is doing. 

 

That's never been understood by me.. 

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I think back to 2004 or maybe it was 2006, when we had snow pack and snow events until the middle of the month.  I remember shoveling on like April 4, and watching medium aggregates pouring down around the neighbor's front door light, and thinking how it just seemed so easy to snow.  

 

Other years, we're in the 70s by April 1...   

 

It's the spice of life around here.  

 

I think at the end of the day I conclude the same way, and that is ... people really need to learn to disconnect their sense of happiness/joy/life-worth-it-ness from something they have no control over. You can't be "dependent" upon whether it snows or not...or gets warm for that matter, on what the weather is doing. 

 

That's never been understood by me.. 

 

Right, nobody has control of the weather. Unfortunately we are not in a warm pattern for the time being so we take what we can get.  I could care less what happens in my backyard at this point, but it doesn't mean I don't find the weather intriguing in nearby areas.

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I think back to 2004 or maybe it was 2006, when we had snow pack and snow events until the middle of the month. I remember shoveling on like April 4, and watching medium aggregates pouring down around the neighbor's front door light, and thinking how it just seemed so easy to snow.

Other years, we're in the 70s by April 1...

It's the spice of life around here.

I think at the end of the day I conclude the same way, and that is ... people really need to learn to disconnect their sense of happiness/joy/life-worth-it-ness from something they have no control over. You can't be "dependent" upon whether it snows or not...or gets warm for that matter, on what the weather is doing.

That's never been understood by me..

People can be dismayed by undesirable outcomes. I don't know that has to mean they are about to off themselves. I don't get that. People have no control over the fate of their local sports teams, yet it sucks when they lose. If you don't get that, then the issue is your's.
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