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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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Not everyone got an outrageous percentage above their mean.

About 1/3 of SNE and coastal Maine had an epic stretch but the reality was an average to slightly above average winter for most of New England. If you want to draw a line from magic mountain in Tolland CT to Concord NH then to Bar Harbor ME everyone E of that line experienced some epic snows for a time. The rest of New England was meh'.

Yeah blah, blah, blah, epic, record cold, we all know about that. I'm sure many in Western and Northern New England will have a winter in the not to distant future that they will enjoy more than this past one.

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Just no warmth or spring Wx in sight for as far out as one can see thru day 10. Nothing but wet, white and chill. You do have to feel a bit for those lost souls who yearn for a warm sun on their face. It will come at some point,, just not soon

 

 

Nope. No warmth. Box's 60 on Monday is in deep doo do I think

 

 

Couple inches in the hills seems likely..

 

Euro on it's own with 60 Monday. Wouldn't be forecasting that.

 

 

Well for you fine folks up to the north..enjoy 37-39 and low clouds/drizzle/fog Monday.owers on Monday to clean off decks, some dry lawns and driveways..and at least start to get ready for the upcoming hot season

Euro on it's own with 60 Monday. Wouldn't be forecasting that.

 

 

Well for you fine folks up to the north..enjoy 37-39 and low clouds/drizzle/fog Monday. Central and southern folks will be able to get arms hung out windows, laying out for an hour at lunch and break out rakes and leaf blowers on Monday to clean off decks, some dry lawns and driveways..and at least start to get ready for the upcoming hot season

Wow, quite a change of heart!!

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Interesting week in coming when utilizing the blend of any non-GFS models.  Even the NAVGEM looks better than the GFS, lord. 

 

Quick comment on that:  Ever since the N-stream lost it's dominant proxy on the flow around the end of February into the first week of March, the GFS has been increasingly errant. It's been trying to sell us that the N-stream is still dominant, and/or taking any opportunity it can to re-introduce its dominance. And this has been causing the operational version of that model to be southerly biased too often, in the means with baroclinic features.  Some of us wondered if this may take place... I recall discussion relating to the Euro not being so fantastic during that N-stream, 'snowmeggedon' stint of mid to late winter. And we wondered if the two models might switch "appearance" of error when the pattern broke down. Obviously needs stricter, statistical re-analysis to be certain -- we're talking "seems". 

 

Anyway, the hidden theme of interest for this in coming week for me is the huge 850 sigma temperature oscillations that are modeled by said blend. This is not uncommon in October, the sort of antithesis month along the calendar year.  And it hearkens in general to seasonal change/stressing the runs.  

 

We advect decent cold today, and set up a snowy depth through tomorrow.  En masse the cold insert/mass begins to lift out, but not before there is a little differentiated/advective return flow, setting up a band of overrunning induced pellets/snow overnight Sunday. Be watchful of that... I have seen that sort of thing surprise over produce...nothing major, just more than thought. And, to be fair ... sometimes those bands are over-modeled and hygroscopic effects eats up/chaffs whatever falls.  In either event, that all quickly transitions on Monday though.  

 

I love seeing those short duration big change scenarios.  Should the non-GFS blend succeed, a warm front aligns from roughly ALB to PWM by mid afternoon, placing SNE in warm sector ...If perhaps augmented by diurnal timing and insolation charging that air mass, temperatures could be quite mild Monday, comparable to Sunday afternoon amid that razor thin success into warm sector on Monday. Should the GFS score a coup, not so much :)  With 850 mb temp (though I don't think the mixing depth actually exceeds that level...) getting to +4 C N to perhaps +7 S, 60s should abound.  I'd go a tick higher, but with that intense gradient and front lurking so close by to the N, ... I just don't have the balls.  Could be cloud contamination, too...

 

Highly confident  said front then actively settling back S, and even becoming back-door for NYC and points S through Tuesday night. Like others... I become less certain on mid-week. There's likely to be a flat wave moving into western NE by early Wednesday...if that feature treks S or N of the region has huge implications on sensible weather obviously. S would require late season uncertain snows into central New England with cool rains and typical April quagmire in SNE... while N would only belay high pressure clearing house.. Either way, that disturbance moves off, and the polar high of mid week then actively moves E...  setting up a possible large transition again..

 

The Euro in particular gets interesting later in the week.. It has another short duration, diurnal temperature burst.  8 pm, Thur evening 850 mb temperatures around -1C over SNE, surging to +12C by the same time Friday evening.  One thing ... yesterday's 12z run had a similar theme to this 00z run;  both relax the cold on a hemispheric scale quite significantly after next Thu/Fri... It's really spring with panache in the thermal fields going forward, in the operational Euro runs.  It's nothing to elaborate on given the time range, but for those interested ... the extended shows the colder plumes have retracted all the way to the arctic circle, leaving even southern Canada vulnerable of rapid thawing and meaningful temperature turn around.  If this turns out as carrying any merit, that early Monday thing may be the last barring some nuance anomaly. 

 

All in all, it's an interesting week of typical spring changeability.  

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12z GFS ain't smoking what the 6z was. Oh well.

 

If it's any consolation ... the 12z NAM still bands out a stripe of overrunning QPF overnight that night.  Again... it wouldn't surprise me either way, if more or less.  There's likely to be SOMEthing there differentiating a cold Sunday from a relatively warm Monday afternoon ... whether a band of chaff producing clouds, or more.

 

Just saw the 12z NAM and it still has the razor thin opportunity for a warm column over much of SNE on Monday. I'm hoping that does that... It would be nice to pile out of work on Monday afternoon, with a nice window-down ride home at close to 70, with late afternoon sun creating that orange glow on against the side's of objects.  

 

Tuesday and Wednesday look like POS days for spring enthusiasts, though.  No question...  Thursday may be sneaking NAPRIL if we can hold off overrunning clouds until evening.  The air mass has moderated to -4 to -1C, and with the high's ridge spine arced directly overhead, calm winds and 52 F highs creates that false warmth persona that characterizes the napril experience... haha

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That's a 1040 high nosing in next week. Some light snow Sunday night in spots and then maybe a prolonged mixed event in higher elevations in ORH and srn NH especially topped off with snow sneaking into the pike area verbatim later Wednesday. Every run has been different but seems like Tuesday into Wednesday could be interesting in some spots.

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99 ways to avoid accumulating snow and we've seen everyone.

 

 

Two ways teaming up to end an epic winter on a soured note:

 

1) physically pull off what you just said 

2) metaphysically somehow finding a way to pull off what you just said

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Like we said .. If we can't have cold and snow.. Let's get summer wx. No need for upper 30's and drizzle in April

You start to feel for these folks wishing and yearning for warmth and spring. Other than a fleeting day or couple hours here and there it had been and looks to continue to be fruitless . Just chill and wet thru day 10-14

We feel for you. Sorry.

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We feel for you. Sorry.

Well there's a difference between getting into the summer mode and hoping for HHH and those few that have been saying it's been spring since March 1 and that it's been mild or looks mild in the extended. I'm being realistic knowing we have nothing but misery except for monday and just expressing a desire to get to summer if snow chances are over

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um GFS has over a foot for you, CMC nearly that

CMC has 16" for here through Wednesday evening. I'm going to take the under.

Still thinking 4" or less is possible at home through this whole period.

These seem like things that'll look worse as it gets closer....mountain though is another story.

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I don't know...this time of year even an inch is pretty cool. Someone perhaps in the ORH area up into SNH could get some snow late tomorrow aftn and tomorrow night.  Beggars can't be choosers this time of year.

I don't see the point. An inch is wet and cold and worthless aside from gone a hours after snow ends. 6+ and it's interesting.

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I don't see the point. An inch is wet and cold and worthless aside from gone a hours after snow ends. 6+ and it's interesting.

 

Time of year my friend.  6+ is a rarity. Since it is not going to be warm anytime soon...might as well make the best of it. Could be some interesting times from HubbDave and MPM through NNE. 

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