Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 At home. What you think for my addition to seasonal total by next Friday? I could see 4" or so. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Weekend is the kind of weather you just dread in spring..Reason why you wish it would snow. low-mid 40's with wind...awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 The GFS slash-qpf-within-60hr phenomenon is under way, just like it's been up here for essentially every system since the Jan blizzard. I see a sloppy coating tomorrow morning then a couple dustings next week. At this point, I'd prefer some sunny 50s with cool nights to get the tawdry snowpack safely into the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Well Sunday night is still one to watch probably north of pike, and then I still think the interior areas again north of pike need to watch next week. That has not changed. I certainly would not let today brain wash you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Always north of the pike lol..we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Always north of the pike lol..we'll see That's the best chance for something. Doesn't mean it's only relegated to those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Well Sunday night is still one to watch probably north of pike, and then I still think the interior areas again north of pike need to watch next week. That has not changed. I certainly would not let today brain wash you. Aside from elevations, I don't see why the interior valleys are favored anymore than the ne MA cp.....that just doesn't make much sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Aside from elevations, I don't see why the interior valleys are favored anymore than the ne MA cp.....that just doesn't make much sense to me. ?? What makes you specify valleys? In my head I picture you to the ORH hills area and out into western MA. Heck even Boston has a shot. What you don't want are very low amounts of precip spread out every 6 hrs. Whenever you have these elongated front with pieces of energy riding along it, models will struggle with each run and that's what we are seeing. That PV really is pressing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 As long as it snows in NW Maine is all i really care about at this point, Padding totals for here does not mean squat in april to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 how can we possibly have wet snow or 34 rain sun night and then be 70 monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 how can we possibly have wet snow or 34 rain sun night and then be 70 monday? If the euro is right, you won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 how can we possibly have wet snow or 34 rain sun night and then be 70 monday? How can we have light in the day and dark in the night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 how can we possibly have wet snow or 34 rain sun night and then be 70 monday?How can one area get 24-36 and 20 miles west get 3-6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 ?? What makes you specify valleys? In my head I picture you to the ORH hills area and out into western MA. Heck even Boston has a shot. What you don't want are very low amounts of precip spread out every 6 hrs. Whenever you have these elongated front with pieces of energy riding along it, models will struggle with each run and that's what we are seeing. That PV really is pressing south. Well, you just said "interior", which isn't exlusive to elevations......that, and some of the guidance has implied greater amounts in the CRV than this area, which make no sense. I agree with you.....like I always say, ORH hills with an appendage of greater amounts into this area...obviously elevations favored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 As long as it snows in NW Maine is all i really care about at this point, Padding totals for here does not mean squat in april to me I'd agree, but if you were 12" from your record season, you'd care to. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 How can one area get 24-36 and 20 miles west get 3-6? LOL Oh, man.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Well, you just said "interior", which isn't exlusive to elevations......that, and some of the guidance has implied greater amounts in the CRV than this area, which make no sense. I agree with you.....like I always say, ORH hills with an appendage of greater amounts into this area...obviously elevations favored. Well the CRV could have more if the high is nosing in and you have a WNW-ESE band of precip. That's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Well the CRV could have more if the high is nosing in and you have a WNW-ESE band of precip. That's possible. I'd need a break from the board if we got another s of pike deal sandwiched between rainers next week. You wouldn't see me back on the weather side until next fall. That wasn't the scenario depicted on the afrementioned runs, though....CRV was just a bit more, and it wasn't an issue of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I'd need a break from the board if we got another s of pike deal sandwiched between rainers next week. You wouldn't see me back on the weather side until next fall. That wasn't the scenario depicted on the afrementioned runs, though....CRV was just a bit more, and it wasn't an issue of QPF. Were you looking at the GFS? You can see the high nosing in, but honestly....every run has been different. We won't know for another two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Were you looking at the GFS? You can see the high nosing in, but honestly....every run has been different. We won't know for another two days. There wasn't a compressed, ene/wsw gradient to the precipitation. All I looked at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Man what a cluster on model guidance for next week...so many different solutions. Euro has some overrunning...then squashes everything, and then cuts a big rainer late week...other guidance says no. Keeps the front south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 There wasn't a compressed, ene/wsw gradient to the precipitation. All I looked at. The 6z sort of had that look Monday night, but I don't even bother looking at snow algorithms or anything like that. I'm not sure I trust the GFS, but it had a great ribbon of snow Sunday night from you up into SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 The 6z sort of had that look Monday night, but I don't even bother looking at snow algorithms or anything like that. I'm not sure I trust the GFS, but it had a great ribbon of snow Sunday night from you up into SNH. Yea, I didn't even view the 06z and all I look at this early are the snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Yea, I didn't even view the 06z and all I look at this early are the snow maps. It's all good. I hate those things, but they give a quick and dirty look so I can't blame you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 It's all good. I hate those things, but they give a quick and dirty look so I can't blame you.Yea, I know they aren't overly accurate....just a quick, general idea of favored locales. Like I said yesterday, they are ok if used qualitatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 how can we possibly have wet snow or 34 rain sun night and then be 70 monday? I don't know what Dendrite was talking about this morning either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 This, to me, has that "chasing unicorns at the end of the rainbow" appeal....seeking illusory snowstorms only to find puddles at lesser intervals... Pretty much ... However, in the defense of those whose posting 'word choices' leave one to conclude they poses biases and so forth ... there were previous coveted oper. Euro solutions that suggested the possibility for protracting winter appeal into April had merit. Not you per se ... but we need to keep in mind that big snow bombs have happened all the way out to May 1 and beyond at our latitude, more than once or twice in lore. Over the longer term ... geological sense of it, the 40th parallel is the terminus for cold during transition seasons; it's a little .. sort of lesser considered attribute amid the millions one needs to juggle for deterministic Met... Anyway, what that means is that as polar highs generate in Canada, and or larger scaled CAA events unfold in general, the background tendency for rising heights (seasonal mean) in the sub-40th parallel latitudes, begins to deflect these air mass from getting much farther south.. This is true both in thicknesses, and in geopotential heights. It's kind of nice sort of blue bomb machine, ensuring that every so many years ... this latitude of ours gets that 1997 juggernaut. Unfortunately for said posters, whose word choices makes it pretty clear that they mix spice into comprehension of products and advice ... this doesn't appear to be one of those time frames.. perhaps seasons et al, at that. Too early to be certain on the latter, but... I see the current teleconnector spread as perhaps relaxing toward mid month; but that is not going to cut it in April. Relaxation makes it seasonal by suggestion, and tolerable by SD. Neither of which enhances snow potential. Currently the NAO is positive, the PNA is negative, and the EPO is neutral. Frankly, it's amazing it's been as cool as it has, because the verification has definitely been anomalous relative to those mass-field derived arguments. And, no sooner... the segue into the 00z Euro.. That run is the best fit for the teleconnector layout I've seen in the recent era. It appears seasonal in terms of features/timing, and has backed well off the colder idea. The GGEM was also backing down on cold profiles ..though of course differs overall as usual. Not that anyone should really even consider that complete debacle of tax-dollar usage.. And the GFS? I haven't really bought into the operational model version more than 50% at any time, since it became patently clear (though ample fodder of subversive trolling...) that the death of winter process began in the first week of March. I rather like the idea of the Euro's move toward a more continental fropa come late Monday afternoon. Then ... yeah, the wind turns around NE, but that's not a BD for us... Maybe down S of NYC it would be in the MA. That high then suppresses the cloud/rain south, and actually, notice the 850mb T layout is still offering up -3C as the mean? That's kind of NAPRIL btw - particularly if the sun does come out in earnest on Tuesday afternoon, and the high is close enough that the gradient slackens. Too detailed though for this time range... Then that high moves off and suggests for warm fropa later in the week... None of which needs to challenge climo that much, and is all a better fit for said tele's. time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I don't know what Dendrite was talking about this morning either. The euro was very mild Monday into CEF etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I don't know what Dendrite was talking about this morning either.Euro deterministic...BDL, high of 68F between 2-8pm Monday. He said near 70F so that makes sense.Euro was really far north with the front. So was the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 That's the best chance for something. Doesn't mean it's only relegated to those areas. I'm going with 98% chance North of the Pike. This is fine with me. Time to move on and get through this horrible month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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