Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Grandma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 126-132 850 drops into elevations and so does 32 degree line It's probably sleet in N CT and far S MA...that WU algorithm always shows sleet as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 It's probably sleet in N CT and far S MA...that WU algorithm always shows sleet as snow. maybe but its 126 hrs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I don't see this trending much further south, and it's not like we need a tick. We'd need about 5 ticks. The GGEM and EURO laugh at the GFS solution Sunday night, which by the way would likely be my last chance to eclipse 100". I've pretty much given up on that endeavor though. More like a few tocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 days and days of rain Days and days of snow you are still rain on the Euro Dig a little deeper..beyond the models. Like you do in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 maybe but its 126 hrs away Well yeah...it obviusly can change and probably will...just pointing out that the algorithm on WU isn't a very good source of a verbatim snow output. I've always thought it was way too liberal with the sleet profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Grandma Interesting. Looks a bit different on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Why not try and make it interesting with some late season snow? Let me know how I can help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Grandma Even a protruding nip Looks cold.. Wonder if ZR isn't also a concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Let me know how I can help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Steve, what is your elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Interesting. Looks a bit different on wxbell. That is 2m temps he posted...Wunderground has the 850 0C line right along or north of the MA/CT border during the time in question but the snow algorithm shows snow south of that...which confirms my belief that it is liberal with snow output in the sleet/ZR zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 That is 2m temps he posted...Wunderground has the 850 0C line right along or north of the MA/CT border during the time in question but the snow algorithm shows snow south of that...which confirms my belief that it is liberal with snow output in the sleet/ZR zone. I think models will err on the warm side with those....not H85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Heavy ZR is almost impossible in April, unless you live in Albany like PF did during his Napril ice event....east of the berks...naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Heavy ZR is almost impossible in April, unless you live in Albany like PF did during his Napril ice event....east of the berks...naso much not at night it isn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 That is 2m temps he posted...Wunderground has the 850 0C line right along or north of the MA/CT border during the time in question but the snow algorithm shows snow south of that...which confirms my belief that it is liberal with snow output in the sleet/ZR zone. Ahhhh ok, yeah that's what I saw. That snow algorithm is liberal, as its hard to get accumulating snows with above freezing temps at 850mb. That one seems to use like 925mb temps or even worse SFC temps. The wxbell snow map shows the gradient quite nicely...as that one has its issues but seems one of the more realistic of the weenie maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Heavy ZR is almost impossible in April, unless you live in Albany like PF did during his Napril ice event....east of the berks...naso much No it's not impossible. The worst ice event that I have ever seen here was at the end of March in 1991. Rare? Sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Maybe the confluence come in like a pig and pushes this thing S to NJ. That would be incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Heavy ZR is almost impossible in April, unless you live in Albany like PF did during his Napril ice event....east of the berks...naso much I don't think it matters where... its all set-up dependent. If the cold air source is over in Maine and NH, then east of the Berks would be the better spot for it while ALY torches. In the event you are referencing in April 2003 it was similar to this with a stalled front and a lot of QPF traversing the region. The surface cold definitely undercut the H85 cold which is why there was a lot of ZR/IP in the Capital District area and was actually the worse ice storm I've seen there with widespread 0.5-1.0" ice accums. North of there in like Glens Falls over towards Rutland got like 12-20" of snow. I could see that as a similar set up... anyone have some maps from April 2003? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Steve, what is your elevation? 517 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 The southern part of the snow zone had just as much QPF but it feel as ZR...so ALB had like 2" of IP/SN and like 1" of ZR. Major Combination Sleet/Ice/North Country Snow StormApril 3-5 Thursday-Saturday, 2003 Never before in April, at least since records have been kept at Albany dating back to 1874, has there been an ice storm of the magnitude of the event that occurred from April 3rd to the 5th. It was a historical combination of snow, sleet, and significant accumulations of ice that brought down thousands of trees, limbs, and power lines throughout the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, and northern Berkshire County over an extended period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Ahhhh ok, yeah that's what I saw. That snow algorithm is liberal, as its hard to get accumulating snows with above freezing temps at 850mb. That one seems to use like 925mb temps or even worse SFC temps. The wxbell snow map shows the gradient quite nicely...as that one has its issues but seems one of the more realistic of the weenie maps. wxbell has had issues all winter with h85 in case you missed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Maybe the confluence come in like a pig and pushes this thing S to NJ. That would be incredible. That would be like stealing someones snow esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 I don't think it matters where... its all set-up dependent. If the cold air source is over in Maine and NH, then east of the Berks would be the better spot for it while ALY torches. In the event you are referencing in April 2003 it was similar to this with a stalled front and a lot of QPF traversing the region. The surface cold definitely undercut the H85 cold which is why there was a lot of ZR/IP in the Capital District area and was actually the worse ice storm I've seen there with widespread 0.5-1.0" ice accums. North of there in like Glens Falls over towards Rutland got like 12-20" of snow. I could see that as a similar set up... anyone have some maps from April 2003? We actually had some ZR in ORH in that one...though it was mostly like a cruddy sleet/snow mix. We got like 3" of sleet/snow in one of the pulses. Then some minor glazing at other points. It was a ridicuclous week though. We had like 5 or 6 days with a high of freezing even though precip wasn't coming down very heavy and we lacked brutally strong CAA...without those two it's hard to have high temps of freezing or colder in April, but we managed to pull it off due to oozing high pressure and light precip. (though it was certainly heavy in bursts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 wxbell has had issues all winter with h85 in case you missed it Yeah must've missed that. But ORH confirmed that wunderground had H85 temps along the Pike so it sounded close to what I was seeing. Either way, doesn't matter at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 We actually had some ZR in ORH in that one...though it was mostly like a cruddy sleet/snow mix. We got like 3" of sleet/snow in one of the pulses. Then some minor glazing at other points. It was a ridicuclous week though. We had like 5 or 6 days with a high of freezing even though precip wasn't coming down very heavy and we lacked brutally strong CAA...without those two it's hard to have high temps of freezing or colder in April, but we managed to pull it off due to oozing high pressure and light precip. (though it was certainly heavy in bursts) Yeah I just remember being blown away by how cold that was with freezing rain accumulating even in the daytime in April at 200ft of elevation. I don't remember the set-up other than a stalled front, and unseasonably cold air north of it, and warm air south of it (the write up on that event said it was in the 20s and 30s north of the front, with like 70s not too far south in PA/NJ. Must've been some sort of cold air drain too down the Hudson Valley maybe...the ALB obs have like 5-10kt north wind throughout the event. That's the only way to do ice storms in April, haha...need a steady supply of cold air refreshing and offsetting the latent heat I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 2/26/11 is number 1 analog, thats pretty impressive for April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 2/26/11 is number 1 analog, thats pretty impressive for April About 4" here. I'd hit that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 holy crap way out there but mid month looks very interesting for those still clinging on to winter especially for the ski areas. Teleconnections lining up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 Euro ens are pretty darn cold right to the NCT border, should be a fun tracking system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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