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Model Discussion for April


Quincy

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I don't see this trending much further south, and it's not like we need a tick. We'd need about 5 ticks. The GGEM and EURO laugh at the GFS solution Sunday night, which by the way would likely be my last chance to eclipse 100". I've pretty much given up on that endeavor though.

 

More like a few tocks

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maybe but its 126 hrs away

 

Well yeah...it obviusly can change and probably will...just pointing out that the algorithm on WU isn't a very good source of a verbatim snow output. I've always thought it was way too liberal with the sleet profiles.

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Interesting. Looks a bit different on wxbell.

 

 

That is 2m temps he posted...Wunderground has the 850 0C line right along or north of the MA/CT border during the time in question but the snow algorithm shows snow south of that...which confirms my belief that it is liberal with snow output in the sleet/ZR zone.

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That is 2m temps he posted...Wunderground has the 850 0C line right along or north of the MA/CT border during the time in question but the snow algorithm shows snow south of that...which confirms my belief that it is liberal with snow output in the sleet/ZR zone.

I think models will err on the warm side with those....not H85.

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That is 2m temps he posted...Wunderground has the 850 0C line right along or north of the MA/CT border during the time in question but the snow algorithm shows snow south of that...which confirms my belief that it is liberal with snow output in the sleet/ZR zone.

 

Ahhhh ok, yeah that's what I saw.  That snow algorithm is liberal, as its hard to get accumulating snows with above freezing temps at 850mb.  That one seems to use like 925mb temps or even worse SFC temps. 

 

The wxbell snow map shows the gradient quite nicely...as that one has its issues but seems one of the more realistic of the weenie maps. 

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Heavy ZR is almost impossible in April, unless you live in Albany like PF did during his Napril ice event....east of the berks...naso much 

 

I don't think it matters where... its all set-up dependent.  If the cold air source is over in Maine and NH, then east of the Berks would be the better spot for it while ALY torches.  In the event you are referencing in April 2003 it was similar to this with a stalled front and a lot of QPF traversing the region.  The surface cold definitely undercut the H85 cold which is why there was a lot of ZR/IP in the Capital District area and was actually the worse ice storm I've seen there with widespread 0.5-1.0" ice accums.  North of there in like Glens Falls over towards Rutland got like 12-20" of snow. 

 

I could see that as a similar set up... anyone have some maps from April 2003? 

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The southern part of the snow zone had just as much QPF but it feel as ZR...so ALB had like 2" of IP/SN and like 1" of ZR.

 

Major Combination Sleet/Ice/North Country Snow Storm
April 3-5 Thursday-Saturday, 2003

Never before in April, at least since records have been kept at Albany dating back to 1874, has there been an ice storm of the magnitude of the event that occurred from April 3rd to the 5th.  It was a historical combination of snow, sleet, and significant accumulations of ice that brought down thousands of trees, limbs, and power lines throughout the Mohawk Valley, Capital Region, and northern Berkshire County over an extended period of time.

 

2003-04sum-Apr4Snow.jpg

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Ahhhh ok, yeah that's what I saw.  That snow algorithm is liberal, as its hard to get accumulating snows with above freezing temps at 850mb.  That one seems to use like 925mb temps or even worse SFC temps. 

 

The wxbell snow map shows the gradient quite nicely...as that one has its issues but seems one of the more realistic of the weenie maps. 

wxbell has had issues all winter with h85 in case you missed it

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I don't think it matters where... its all set-up dependent.  If the cold air source is over in Maine and NH, then east of the Berks would be the better spot for it while ALY torches.  In the event you are referencing in April 2003 it was similar to this with a stalled front and a lot of QPF traversing the region.  The surface cold definitely undercut the H85 cold which is why there was a lot of ZR/IP in the Capital District area and was actually the worse ice storm I've seen there with widespread 0.5-1.0" ice accums.  North of there in like Glens Falls over towards Rutland got like 12-20" of snow. 

 

I could see that as a similar set up... anyone have some maps from April 2003? 

 

 

We actually had some ZR in ORH in that one...though it was mostly like a cruddy sleet/snow mix. We got like 3" of sleet/snow in one of the pulses. Then some minor glazing at other points.

 

It was a ridicuclous week though. We had like 5 or 6 days with a high of freezing even though precip wasn't coming down very heavy and we lacked brutally strong CAA...without those two it's hard to have high temps of freezing or colder in April, but we managed to pull it off due to oozing high pressure and light precip. (though it was certainly heavy in bursts)

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We actually had some ZR in ORH in that one...though it was mostly like a cruddy sleet/snow mix. We got like 3" of sleet/snow in one of the pulses. Then some minor glazing at other points.

 

It was a ridicuclous week though. We had like 5 or 6 days with a high of freezing even though precip wasn't coming down very heavy and we lacked brutally strong CAA...without those two it's hard to have high temps of freezing or colder in April, but we managed to pull it off due to oozing high pressure and light precip. (though it was certainly heavy in bursts)

 

Yeah I just remember being blown away by how cold that was with freezing rain accumulating even in the daytime in April at 200ft of elevation.  I don't remember the set-up other than a stalled front, and unseasonably cold air north of it, and warm air south of it (the write up on that event said it was in the 20s and 30s north of the front, with like 70s not too far south in PA/NJ. 

 

Must've been some sort of cold air drain too down the Hudson Valley maybe...the ALB obs have like 5-10kt north wind throughout the event.  That's the only way to do ice storms in April, haha...need a steady supply of cold air refreshing and offsetting the latent heat I'd imagine.

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