Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 In any event ... as a Napril aesthete that I am, I have a special appreciation for the type of weather the 00z oper. Euro put out there for this coming Thursday. By 8pm Thursday, the model depicts +9C at 850 mb has overspread everyone's skies, and there is a clear warm frontal structure that has also cleared all of SNE ... subtending from SE Ontario to off-shore central New England. The gradient is deep SW/WSW... heck, if anything, the set-up looks marine cooled contaminated for southeast CT, southern RI and SE Mass. Otherwise, what a flip around day that would be! RH is < 50% at 700 mb, flagging nearly clear in the mid levels ... and near or < 50% at 850 mb too. And after the previous day struggles 850 mb to -4C in a rotted polar air mass, that really will physically/sensibly "seem" like a seasonal whiplash event I'm afraid... The vast majority of you/us, save for vacationers, have not felt a 60+ day in many months... That +9C after a solid afternoon of unimpeded insolation is probably nearly maximized in a well mixed SW/WSW flow like that ... and we'd be talking 22 C as 1000mb, easily supporting a 24 C in the 2-meter. That's 74 F!! But the Euro would have to work out perfect ...so I'd bet on 68 for now... It's chilly almost right up to 12z Thursday -- grin and bear it.... Over night Wednesday, there may be some residual rad cooling profile early on, but elevations may actually see temps already rising prior to dawn on Thursday. Places like poor me, down in this Nashoba Valley, could be 29F at 12z and it's already 46 at 1000' high ORH! I've already seen that type of extreme llv inversion while living here on more than a couple of occasions spanning the last four years, and it's that sort of set up that usual does it. We'll see. That air mass in warm sector then clears by the weekend, but I see Easter weekend as evolving entirely differently than any of the guidance heretofore, save the 00z, were characterizing. ..at least beginning to change away from that. In fact, given the overwhelming teleconnector support, I don't see any hope right now for a cold low translation from the OV-MA and winter result for NE. That ship probably sailed yesterday really, but the tele's of the GEF -derived combined with the hugely agreeable oper. Euro is a blend that sets very well against the trend that has been lurking now for a week's worth of struggles in the guidance. I think Ray and I have been covering.. So long of the short .. next week features a fropa early saturday and more W/NW component of less deeply cold type air than recent weeks/months. Dry, sunny, seasonally cool for Easter its self, is the way I see things. And that's also interesting, it seems that warm up Thursday may actually be kind of a proverbial switch, where even though the back of winter was probably broken early this month ...that's the finality out there. Because the cool air afterwards doesn't appear to have the same punch. Of course, there's always the bowling ball in the first week of May ... barring any noise-based anomaly, ...egh, thank god! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Phil calls it....good read..curtains are dropping on us CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 13m 13 minutes ago Almost time to say good-bye to winter 2014-2015. http://www.capecodweather.net/technical-discussion/pattern-relaxes-soon/ … Ha calling winter curtain mid April, tough call right there. One would hope winter is over by Mid April lol. True, but it's nice to think that there may be one or 2 more shots of brief winter weather, before the curtain finally does fall. And, by the time it does, we may be halfway through the worst month of the year so it won't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 If we are to see Wednesday come back, it needs to happen today...but my gut is still south. It's also modeled to be a compact system which doesn't help. This weekend still looks interesting. A lot of models have some sort of an overrunning deal nearby. Seems like the EC ensemble waits until early next week. That event near easter will wrap up the season, good or bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Will be nice to check out of here for you while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 LOL lil nuke on the Canadian Tuesday night. GFS has barely a wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Yeah I think the pattern flips after mid April as well. Now whether or not we get backdoored is impossible to tell at this time, but the overall pattern should change I think. Do you think the really cold SST's off the coast could be something that correlates to more backdoor potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Do you think the really cold SST's off the coast could be something that correlates to more backdoor potential? Well it certainly can help cause that thermal imbalance between land and sea, or cause the air behind any backdoor to be a tick or two cooler...but it's not enough to overwhelm a weather pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Well it certainly can help cause that thermal imbalance between land and sea, or cause the air behind any backdoor to be a tick or two cooler...but it's not enough to overwhelm a weather pattern. Good...I hate hate backdoor's. Unless on the extremely rare occasion they produce severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Do you think the really cold SST's off the coast could be something that correlates to more backdoor potential? It could certainly enhance the local Hadley circulation on warm days, where the gradient is weak, and rising motion over the coastal plain(s) late morning, causes a balanced on-shore component. That would be some pretty chilly air coming in off the water by contrast. Sea breezes alone can be potent. The year I lived summer in Rockport Ma, out on the tip of Cape Ann in the middle of the North Atlantic ...heh, hm.. Many a 70F 11 ams were 43F by 5 pm. That's where I began to truly loathe spring in NE. Didn't have that problem growing up in Michigan. When it was done, it was done. But BD mechanics are much more synoptic in origin and thus affect. What typically happens, ...and this isn't always obvious when just looking at the 500 mb height layout, is that a weak/moderate/strong S/W passes ESE toward Nova Scotia from eastern Ontario. This typically happens over the top of a burgeoning eastern U.S. ridge, too, making their resulting sensible impact particularly antithetic to what said ridge would otherwise sensibly mean.. In August of like 1988 ... random. Obscure. But ferocious nonetheless.. there was a forecast for a record hot heat wave. Trees tipped sideways and low clouds and hazy poured across the area, taking forecast highs of 97 to maybes of 70. What happens is the back side of that S/W has a small (or large, depending on the potency of the wave..) pulse of NVA in the 700-500mb sigmas. That's causes downward vertical motion and the generation of +PP between roughly CAR ME and the outer GOM coastal waters, as the S/W moves further away. When the PP rises in that area, it sets up a mass discontinuity; particularly enhanced by the fact that in the spring and summer, the land mass is hellabit warm compared to both the meso-beta scaled high pressure, but augmented by Labrador cold. Said discontinuity is balanced by moving the air mass SW.... What enhances all that systemic action yet further, is New England's unique, ''bowl full of poop'' topography. The cordillera of the Apps combined with the Berkshire stripe, lifts the environmental flow prior to arriving into SNE -- not entirely, but as a tendency. Counter to this is an equal tendency to thus back the flow at the surface to compensate. If there is a cold, dense, earth-pressing air mass already cutting SW do to BD mechanics, and then it taps into that tendency, together this creates an unstoppable vector that drills the BD all the way down to the VA Capes, and beyond in some extreme cases. And, once that air mass is effectively "tucked" along I-95, the mountains to the west, and the dense stable oceanic BL to the east, work to together to trap the BD air mass. It's really in the same ilk as CAD, only perverse because you don't have a stationary high N, ...nosing dense air down the coast. BDs are like "drive by CADings.." (haha) for lack of better words. But once in, can be hard to scour out. I have seen cold air seclusions before, where a whole synoptic chapter is turned over and interior SNE was abandoned to gloom the whole time. April and May for that matter, are uniquely qualified months for all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 What Tip said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 What Tip said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 It could certainly enhance the local Hadley circulation on warm days, where the gradient is weak, and rising motion over the coastal plain(s) late morning, causes a balanced on-shore component. That would be some pretty chilly air coming in off the water by contrast. Sea breezes alone can be potent. The year I live summer in Rockport Ma, out on the tip of Cape Ann in the middle of the North Atlantic ...heh, hm.. Many a 70F 11 ams were 43F by 5 pm. That's where I began to truly loathe spring in NE. Didn't have that problem growing up in Michigan. When it was done, it was done. But BD mechanics are much more synoptic in origin and thus affect. What typically happens, ...and this isn't always obvious when just looking at the 500 mb height layout, is that a weak/moderate/strong S/W passes ESE toward Nova Scotia from eastern Ontario. This typically happens over the top of a burgeoning eastern U.S. ridge, too, making their resulting sensible impact particularly antithetic to what said ridge would otherwise sensibly mean.. In August of like 1988 ... random. Obscure. But ferocious nonetheless.. there was a forecast for a record hot heat wave. Trees tipped sideways and low clouds and hazy poured across the area, taking forecast highs of 97 to maybes of 70. What happens is the back side of that S/W has a small (or large, depending on the potency of the wave..) pulse of NVA in the 700-500mb sigmas. That's causes downward vertical motion and the generation of +PP between roughly CAR ME and the outer GOM coastal waters, as the S/W moves further away. When the PP rises in that area, it sets up a mass discontinuity; particularly enhanced by the fact that in the spring and summer, the land mass is hellabit warm compared to both the meso-beta scaled high pressure, but augmented by Labrador cold. Said discontinuity is balanced by moving the air mass SW.... What enhances all that systemic action yet further, is New England's unique, ''bowl full of poop'' topography. The cordillera of the Apps combined with the Berkshire stripe, lifts the environmental flow prior to arriving into SNE -- not entirely, but as a tendency. Counter to this is an equal tendency to thus back the flow at the surface to compensate. If there is a cold, dense, earth-pressing air mass already cutting SW do to BD mechanics, and then it taps into that tendency, together this creates an unstoppable vector that drills the BD all the way down to the VA Capes, and beyond in some extreme cases. And, once that air mass is effectively "tucked" along I-95, the mountains to the west, and the dense stable oceanic BL to the east, work to together to trap the BD air mass. It's really in the same ilk as CAD, only perverse because you don't have a stationary high N, ...nosing dense air down the coast. BDs are like "drive by CADings.." (haha) for lack of better words. But once in, can be hard to scour out. I have seen cold air seclusion before, where a whole synoptic chapter is turns over and interior SNE was abandoned to gloom the whole time. April and May for that matter, are uniquely qualified months for all that. Going from 70F to low 40's would just brutally suck. How would you dress for that? You would have to have a coat, long pants, gloves, and a hat with you. The whole fundamentals behind BDCF's though are highly fascinating...but yeah you definitely have to look at the llvl's of the atmosphere when gauging any BD potential. The 500mb pattern is probably not going to help you here. But awesome stuff with regards to s/w passing through...never really thought about that and how they may influence BD potential. Great to know as we head into April and May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 The deep deep blue Arctic air with snow still clinging to the trees at this late an hour a few days from April is astounding. Think we snow again. One of those years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 That's beyond anything I could ever imagine about talking the dyamics of BDF LOL. But all true. Good explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 this winter cant end soon enough, i never thought 70 inches of snow could be so frustrating, i have enjoyed 50 inch winters much more. just under 70 inches of meh and relentless cold while those to the east saw things i couldnt have drawn up better in my basement....just let it be over and soo much for all the so called potential the last three weeks or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 What Tip said.Who reads it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Who reads it?PF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 That's beyond anything I could ever imagine about talking the dyamics of BDF LOL. But all true. Good explanation. ...I'm hoping that talking about them might gynx it so they don't happen? Yeah, right - I kinda see where some are going with this, tho. We've been blocky now... for what, 19 months!? Seems it is going to be hard to get through April when/where there is any kind of warming trend, without having some piece of sh!t useless airmass drilling SW somehow...someway, this year. We'll see. I think I counted 12 BD of varying strength last year. I know, I know ...geek to the nth degree keeping track of that misery - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 this winter cant end soon enough, i never thought 70 inches of snow could be so frustrating, i have enjoyed 50 inch winters much more. just under 70 inches of meh and relentless cold while those to the east saw things i couldnt have drawn up better in my basement....just let it be over and soo much for all the so called potential the last three weeks or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 this winter cant end soon enough, i never thought 70 inches of snow could be so frustrating, i have enjoyed 50 inch winters much more. just under 70 inches of meh and relentless cold while those to the east saw things i couldnt have drawn up better in my basement....just let it be over and soo much for all the so called potential the last three weeks or so They were there, and real... just didn't pan out. Having said that, a lot of us started warning that winter's back might be broken when we discussed March as a spring month back whence. If not, certainly it was carrying around a piano of a seasonal change signal. We just started from such a low anomalous state, that the climb out could certainly have performed better. Buuut, spring is fickle round dees pahts... We could be 60-70 for a week and still get bowling blue-balled, too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstoned Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Who reads it? Those with some degree of reading comprehension, as well as appreciation for a scientist who also is gifted with rare ability and willingness to use the King's language creatively, that's who. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Who reads it? You should have. Some great info in there and one piece you could learn from...there is more to just forecasting heat/temps than just 500mb alone...especially when you're in a region where BD's like to lurk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 You should have. Some great info in there and one piece you could learn from...there is more to just forecasting heat/temps than just 500mb alone...especially when you're in a region where BD's like to lurkAfter his disturbing and nasty comments towards me yesterday , I have no desire to read or interact with said individual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Going from 70F to low 40's would just brutally suck. How would you dress for that? You would have to have a coat, long pants, gloves, and a hat with you. Oh, that's routine for them out there on those penns. I'm sure Cape Cod experiences the same crap. It's calm, and wistfully warm in climbing spring sun ...circa April 25 ...May 13..etc, and then you hear your back screen door slam shut or open, and the lawn chimes start pinging off, and this knifing cold air comes rushing through the windows. Once these sea-breezes get this far inland, the I-95 or so distance... the horizontal temperature differential can still be intense, but it's diffused comparatively. I mean, it literally will drop 20 F out on those Atlantic facing points much faster than the thermometers can register. Like immediately ... puff of face smack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 After his disturbing and nasty comments towards me yesterday , I have no desire to read or interact with said individual hmm I missed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Oh, that's routine for them out there on those penns. I'm sure Cape Cod experiences the same crap. It's calm, and wistfully warm in climbing spring sun ...circa April 25 ...May 13..etc, and then you hear your back screen door slam shut or open, and the lawn chimes start pinging off, and this knifing cold air comes rushing through the windows. Once these sea-breezes get this far inland, the I-95 or so distance... the horizontal temperature differential can still be intense, but it's diffused comparatively. I mean, it literally will drop 20 F out on those Atlantic facing points much faster than the thermometers can register. Like immediately ... puff of face smack. I remember a few summers ago...well longer than a few...maybe 4 years ago pretty much every afternoon here for like a good 3 weeks we would get a sea-breeze to come up from LIS around 5:00-5:30 PM right on the dot...winds would pick up and the temp would drop a good 10-15F. but ughh if I lived where it went from 75 to 43...I would jump off some bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 After his disturbing and nasty comments towards me yesterday , I have no desire to read or interact with said individual Disturbing ? All I said was, "you are not a Met" - which is true. And intimated not appreciating being dismissed for what I am, by education and superior experience, observing in the models. If you can't handle these FACT, tough. There is nothing disturbing about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 hmm I missed that You didn't miss anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 I remember a few summers ago...well longer than a few...maybe 4 years ago pretty much every afternoon here for like a good 3 weeks we would get a sea-breeze to come up from LIS around 5:00-5:30 PM right on the dot...winds would pick up and the temp would drop a good 10-15F. but ughh if I lived where it went from 75 to 43...I would jump off some bridge. It's anywhere close to the shore. Seabreeze is a localized affect, and is effected by finite difference in air mass across relatvely smaller distance. That's why the gradients between the pre and post SB boundary is so intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Of course there's legit bd worry given ssts locally. However, I point out the concern of warm coastals early in the winter when ssts were above normal. What I'm swaying is they can change quickly and the background pattern will dominate that. Backdoors will more readily occur with a favorable gradient. A strong wsw flow will almost always keep them at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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