Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 CFS looks not so promising either http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showmastercfs.php ???? That screams west flow and warmth.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 ???? That screams west flow and warmth..wut????look at the individual days, look at the 5 h, there maybe a 2 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 ???? That screams west flow and warmth..summer my arse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 wut????look at the individual days, look at the 5 h, there maybe a 2 day period. The point is overall..the second half of the month looks fairly warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 hes about to make the switch to hot and humid every day its that time of year! wut????look at the individual days, look at the 5 h, there maybe a 2 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Haha here we go, Blizz is making the switch. Naturally calling for summer to start after April 15th. Right from 30s to 70+ in his head. I agree with Ginx that it looks warmer than it's been (relative to normal) but pretty much looks normal for April. So we might warmup from well below normal pattern to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Haha here we go, Blizz is making the switch. Naturally calling for summer to start after April 15th. Right from 30s to 70+ in his head. I agree with Ginx that it looks warmer than it's been (relative to normal) but pretty much looks normal for April. So we might warmup from well below normal pattern to normal. pretty much although seeing that cold strengthen in Eastern Canada brings concerns especially near you. Thats a frigid airmass lurking close by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Is the system with snow in it for next weekend, or around that time frame still showing up in the long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitinsvilleWX Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Huh? What are u talking about?? Hyperbole much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Folks, the indices are looking less favorable for "Napril" e.g. PNA, NAO and EPO neutral at best and SE Canada frigid. I am almost ready for Tip to cancel Napril chances today, or soon. April is not looking good at all in my honest opinion, and the PDO and big MJO pulse looks to screw spring for 3 weeks as well. CFS and GEFS look very cold through mid April, like the frozen solid, hard as a rock Easter bunny will be this year. We stay below normal 90 percent of the time through 4/15 or 4/20. I see very little evidence on the models or tele's that would counter argue this either. The frigid Atlantic will screw the coast for warmth until late June this year. Extremely perfect for potent backdoors from April through late June this year too. 87 in DC, 81 in Philadelphia, 53 in NYC and 44 on LI and SNE will happen a lot most of this spring over and over.... I bet July-August will be 90-95 28 times in EWR, NJ while zero 90 degree days at JFK, NYC, lots of 78-82 degree days at best. Coastal NYC/LI and coastal New England will still have yellow forsythias in early May, and trees budding early to mid May this year. I think some of the oaks stay bare till May 15-20th this year. Not June but 2-4 weeks later than normal. Let's call it April, not "Napril" or "Februil"I could see the trees just not blooming and leafing out this year. Just naked skeletons right thru summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitinsvilleWX Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Yea, I agree. And the ice most likely won't break all the way either. Frozen wasteland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 Just for general reference ... here's the current CDC layout... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2015 Share Posted March 28, 2015 The NAO recedes there, but stays essentially positive... certainly not enough to implicate much stress on the flow structure between the OV and NE... Meanwhile, the WPO/EPO, have one minor weak intervening negative, before both resuming a modest positive ... collocated with a powerful looking negative PNA. This all takes us through the 11th of April, almost mid month. This, overall, is a warm signal for much of the CONUS... I bet NCEP just hasn't switched winter modes yet... Although, I am not sure if they even still do that; but it wouldn't shock me considering how opposing their products keep churning out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 If the PNA verifies as forecasted we would begin to see some significant changes with the overall structure of the pattern across the United States. Troughing would become the more dominant feature in the west so this could lead to an increase in severe wx potential across the Plains/South...all depending of course on numerous other factors of course. We would certainly see ridging become more dominant in the east, especially at least as far north as the mid-Atlantic. The positive NAO signal could also increase the odds of stronger ridging working into our latitudes as well. Regardless though, we may see the pattern become PNA-dominant for a time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 I don't like ridging, ridging opens the floodgates for high dew points... High dews equals boob sweat, and sweaty ball sacks...buy stock in gold bond powder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 ASOUT Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 8m 8 minutes ago Looks like sustained warmth, Spring-like conditions are likely by mid April as flow becomes zonal. Image valid 4/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Yeah I think the pattern flips after mid April as well. Now whether or not we get backdoored is impossible to tell at this time, but the overall pattern should change I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 If we are to see Wednesday come back, it needs to happen today...but my gut is still south. It's also modeled to be a compact system which doesn't help. This weekend still looks interesting. A lot of models have some sort of an overrunning deal nearby. Seems like the EC ensemble waits until early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Yeah I think the pattern flips after mid April as well. Now whether or not we get backdoored is impossible to tell at this time, but the overall pattern should change I think. When you say flip are you think Blizz-like July heat, or just a flip from -8F departures to something more seasonably normal (seasons in seasons)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Yeah I think the pattern flips after mid April as well. Now whether or not we get backdoored is impossible to tell at this time, but the overall pattern should change I think. Some sustained warmth by then will be nice..70's and shorts FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 When you say flip are you think Blizz-like July heat, or just a flip from -8F departures to something more seasonably normal (seasons in seasons)? I think it changes to something where we see more ridging in the east vs troughing. Seems like we could have troughing from AK and down into the west coast which should teleconnect to ridging in the east. But, I had to give the caveat that we are special in New England and sometimes in our own little cold kingdom with backdoors that aren't able to be forecasted this far out. You really need that ridge axis parked over the east and strong. Otherwise, sound the fog horns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 These cold patterns tends to love to flip right to summer once it breaks in our cold winters. i really think we break out the sorts for good just inland away from that beast to the east post April 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 If we are to see Wednesday come back, it needs to happen today...but my gut is still south. It's also modeled to be a compact system which doesn't help. This weekend still looks interesting. A lot of models have some sort of an overrunning deal nearby. Seems like the EC ensemble waits until early next week. I thought the ensembles actually looked decent to support precip making it least to the pike with the Tuesday night clipper. GGEm didn't look terrible either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 I thought the ensembles actually looked decent to support precip making it least to the pike with the Tuesday night clipper. GGEm didn't look terrible either. Yeah, but that can also be skewed by a few weenie members. We'll need to see a shift north today for anything noteworthy. Of course the NAM is a nice hit, but we know how that goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Phil calls it....good read..curtains are dropping on us CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 13m 13 minutes ago Almost time to say good-bye to winter 2014-2015. http://www.capecodweather.net/technical-discussion/pattern-relaxes-soon/ … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Ha calling winter curtain mid April, tough call right there. One would hope winter is over by Mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 I think he means the winter-like pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 I think he means the winter-like pattern.Yeah...not exactly what we've experienced the past 2 months. Hopefully we can avoid the drizzle and gloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 Verbatim that's a decent look for warmth here. Usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2015 Share Posted March 29, 2015 The only think I fear is that does seem like it opens the potential for backdoors. With NW flow or WNW flow..we know what can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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